Feverish political speculation gripped Moscow today as the new Prime Minister appointed by President Putin was confirmed in the post by Russia's lower house of parliament.

Russian opposition politicians angrily denounced Mr Putin’s unexpected replacement of the colourless Prime Minister, Mikhail Fradkov, with Viktor Zubkov, a 65-year-old government financial watchdog as unknown to ordinary Russians as he is to most politicians.

Mr Putin, meanwhile, was keeping aloof from the furore, resting at the Black Sea resort of Sochi, having sent out a clear signal to Russian voters that he will remain in full control until he steps down from office in March.

"The President showed that political institutions in Russia mean nothing," Grigory Yavlinsky, head of the liberal opposition party Yabloko, told Western correspondents. "Nobody cares about parliament or public opinion in taking decisions. This group of people want to continue in power for an unlimited period."

Another right-wing politician, Nikita Belykh, who heads the small pro-market Union of Right Forces, said the reshuffle looked like a manoeuvre to enable Mr Putin to "regain his throne" in two years' time. It meant that all bets on his successor were now off.

Pro-government parties have said little, but Mr Putin’s supporters agreed that he did not want to show his hand now by appointing one of the likely presidential contenders. That would effectively make the March vote a forgone conclusion, while running the risk of making Mr Putin himself a lame duck.

To ordinary voters, the message is clear: the man who holds all the cards in his hand is Mr Putin, the supreme puppet master, who arrived on holiday in Sochi yesterday - while reminding them that it was thanks to his energetic personal lobbying that this Black Sea resort was able, unexpectedly, to beat other European favourites and win the 2014 Winter Olympics. This is seen as a huge coup for Russia and a personal triumph for Mr Putin.

The main effect of the reshuffle is to leave the two front-runners — Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev, both First Deputy Prime Ministers — in place while opening the way for other contenders, including Mr Fradkov himself, to enter the race, even though nobody expects anyone except Mr Putin’s preferred protégé to win in March.

Despite denunciation of opposition politicians, the reshuffle could strengthen party politics in Russia. For the first time the ruling party, United Russia, could become a proper political organisation instead of being simply a front for corralling Mr Putin’s supporters and ensuring smooth passage of his legislation in the Duma.

Mr Putin has signalled that, unlike his own rise to power, the office of Prime Minister is not necessarily the route to the presidency. The reform of the electoral system, which he pushed into law two years ago, abolished individual constituencies and ensured that deputies are elected on a party list system.

United Russia is expected overwhelmingly to win with up to 300 of the 450 Duma seats. The key figure will therefore be the politician who heads United Russia’s list, who will ensure that the parliament chosen in December will remain loyal to Mr Putin and his successor.

There are three key questions in the Duma election that will shape perceptions of the presidential race. Will the opposition be given a fair chance to campaign? Will the Communists show that they still have life in them? And will the smaller parties — Yabloko, the Union of Right Forces and the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of the maverick Vladimir Zhirinovsky — win enough votes to cross the 7 per cent hurdle needed to win seats?

Few opposition politicians believe the campaign will be fair. They point to the Kremlin's control and manipulation of the media and say that their campaigners are likely to be harassed. Mr Belykh said he was resigned to doing without any television advertising or posters and relying on volunteers to spread his party’s message by word of mouth.

But Mr Putin is equally determined to show that this election is not simply a charade. He was known to be upset that people such as Mr Yavlinsky, a cool and articulate political thinker, failed to win enough votes to get any deputies into parliament last time round.

Political analysts have been urging the small, right-wing, pro-Western parties to set aside personal rivalries and unite, to give them at least a small chance of winning some seats. But neither Mr Yavlinsky nor Mr Belykh seem ready to roll up their sleeves, bury their differences and join forces.

As for the Communists, they are still campaigning hard and winning support, especially from the elderly, with their denunciations of corruption, low pensions, crime, and what they see as the exploitation of the ordinary citizen.

Despite their antiquated message and inevitable association with the discredited Soviet system, their sharp words about Mr Putin and his Kremlin cronies are also winning some support among young and largely cynical first-time voters. Their leader, Gennady Zyuganov, is surprisingly feisty and upbeat after ten years in office and under regular Kremlin attack. The Communists are likely to be the only opposition of any substance in the Duma.

Many Russians however, say that whatever happens in December, the steady rise in living standards, funded by the oil windfalls, and Mr Putin’s shrewd embrace of the Russia-first national mood, ensure that he still will have a virtual free hand in picking his successor and rallying the country around a message of continuity.

Russia is tired of turmoil, changes and experiments. For most people Mr Putin’s tough image, tough message and tough control is just what they want. And the intelligentsia, with weary resignation, is preparing for a long period of more of the same.

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