Michael Binyon
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Has Vladimir Putin just pulled the plug on Russian democracy? His announcement that he wants to become prime minister means that he will not, after all, leave office in March, as the Constitution requires. Instead, he will simply switch titles, move from the President’s office into the prime minister’s and continue his authoritarian rule.
Technically, he will break no law. Most Russians will be delighted: his popularity rating is still about 80 per cent. Those fearful of change and those who have enriched themselves in the past eight years want the good times to continue. But to bend constitutional arrangements to fit a single personality is worrying. Mr Putin insists that he wants to continue serving his country. But his plans simply underscore the fact that the real enemy of Russian democracy has always been a strong tsar.
Already the brief stirring of democracy during the chaotic Yeltsin years have given way to top-down authoritarianism. Opposition politics is now barely possible: rallies are broken up, antigovernment figures are kept off television, the press is muzzled, “enemies” meet a sticky end and all the focus is on what the Kremlin wants.
In recent months Russia has been preoccupied with Mr Putin’s future. Speculation was increased two weeks ago by his unexpected reshuffle, three months before the parliamentary elections, when he appointed Viktor Zubkov, an elderly and unknown politician, as the new Prime Minister. Was he a temporary figure, keeping the seat warm for Mr Putin? Or was he himself being groomed as a presidential candidate, much in the way that Boris Yeltsin groomed the unknown Mr Putin?
Today the answer is clear. Mr Putin will take over the job himself. That at least will give him a proper base for continued influence. The effect, of course, will be simply to reverse the balance of power. In future the prime minister will call the shots, while the president will find his power severely limited. And after four years Mr Putin could come back again as President (which is possible under the Constitution). And the balance of power would be reversed again.
Mr Putin’s future was virtually the only issue in his recent meeting with The Times and other Western journalists and academics. The 54-year-old gave a blunt warning that he had no intention of becoming a pensioner. He was young and still fit, he said, and wanted to play a role. “This will be a factor with which any future president must reckon, and we must agree how we will function.”
At the same time, he insisted that he did not want to see a weak president in the future, because the party system was still too weak and poorly developed for a Western-style democracy. He did not appear to see the contradiction between a strong successor and his own position steering the Government from the back seat of the Zil.
Why has he made his intentions public now? Several things have pushed him into his announcement. The first is the distraction that the speculation is causing within Russia, and the intense jockeying for position among those in the inner circle who want to ensure their survival. Mr Putin can control this damaging plotting only if he makes it clear that he remains in full control until his final day in office – and, as he has now made plain, beyond.
Secondly, he has been pushed by the timetable of United Russia (UR), the main pro-Kremlin party in the Duma. Parliamentary elections are due on December 2 and the party has not yet announced who will head its list. A special party meeting will be held this month to make that decision. Mr Putin has spoken of his wish - real or convenient – to see political parties strengthened, instead of simply being vehicles to prop up the Kremlin’s nominees. But he cannot run as UR’s top candidate without first resigning as president, according to the law. So instead he may be adopted as an independent, though still topping the list. This device bends the constitution, though does not break it.
Finally, Mr Putin may have been forced to speak out now to stop those who want to keep him in power staging some kind of crisis or provocation to force a change in the constitution and keep him in office. That, he knows, would be a fatal blow to his image as a democrat and to any notion that he is anything but a traditional Russian strongman.
If he became prime minister, he would return Russia to the situation in 1999, when an ailing President Yeltsin appointed him to that office after trying out several others whom he thought he could groom as his successor. Mr Putin quickly consolidated his power on the back of the renewed fighting in Chechnya, and effectively took over the functions of the presidency.
Whether any candidate would now be willing to run for the weakened office of president is unclear. Sergei Ivanov, Mr Putin’s old KGB comrade, is still the favourite, and is known to be the choice of Kremlin insiders. He would have to forge a close understanding with Mr Putin if the two are to work together. He would, presumably, still have the presidential power to dismiss the Government and choose a new prime minister. But it would be a brave man who would risk throwing out a prime minister who has stacked the State with his loyalists.
Mr Putin is a shrewd manipulator of Russia’s Byzantine politics. He manages to play both the populist and the consummate Kremlin insider at the same time. This, together with the cascade of oil money now enriching most Russians, is what makes him popular. In his talk with Western correspondents, he spoke of the “moral influence” a leader can have in Russia, comparing himself indirectly with those dissidents whose political power came from their moral standing in society. He says he wants to play that role to embed democracy in Russia. But that, he admits, will take years. And can he do it, when the people clamour only for a strong tsar?
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The most feasible, and the only realistic attitude towards Russia is to accept its independence, even from Western patterns of thinking and political traditions. A really independent country is hard to accept for the only Superpower - but what if Russia does not in priniciple accept the superiority of other nations, and their political morals? How would Western countries feel to be lectured about and against their own systems and traditions by Russia? Unfortunately, Russian decency does not allow for such attitude, they respect other nations and their traditions.
Fred, Rostov na Donu,
Putin is Great. Only people who live in Russia can make the right decision about who can be our president, Putin really improve our life. Now I live in Moscow, but used to live in small town approximately 400 km away from the capital, and the life has changed a lot there.
Alex, Moskva,
Putin has truly served his people well. Trouble is that he may not be serving certain western interests quite as well as his predecessor. May he long continue to do so
Ben, Stuttgart, Germany
none of these comments actually address the points raised in the article. people just grinding their axes. (Yuri: the author is British not American)
Alexander Monro, London,
Yuri, theres one big difference. The citizens of the USA can choose not to vote for any of the present incumbants and remove them. You will find in future Russians cannot remove Putin no matter what. In years to come as your liberties erode further and freedom of speech is restricted that you realise once gain the great mistake of all Russians not to cherish their rights.
Dean, Nevada,
After destabilisation (by western agents) and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union, the people had 'democracy' pushed at them and were unable to accept it. They were robbed of their assets by unscrupulous 'entrepreneurs'.
Historically the Russians have been ruled with the rod of iron, they can only operate under such a system.
Let Putin get on with it.
burrator, St Sulpice, France
none of these comments actually address the points raised in the article. people just grinding their axes.
Alexander Monro, London,
In 1999 Putin came to power the country went through the fall of the USSR, 2 wars, 2 defaults, most people were not paid for their work, etc, etc. The spike of energy prices was his "good luck", but the way he managed the money was his merit. That is the base of his popularity.
"the cascade of oil money now enriching most Russians", I certainly won't write smth I am not sure in, it's ridiculous.
The same is to the position of PM in the Russian political system (being simply an administrator of the government activity).
Putin's plans for future aren't clarified with this dicision.
To Dan Hughes, so, how can you know anything on Kasparov, if not via media? By some insight, maybe?
Tatyana, N.Novgorod, RF
We are left to debate who is worse for their people, Blair, Brown, Bush, Cameron, Clinton, or Putin. The first 4 are changing their people by immigration against the popular will. In the UK they prosecuted Nick Griffin twice. Now a 10 year old victim faces prosecution for hate speech. Putin is advocating fertility for his people, and the others are enforcing genetic replacement. What is democratic about genetic replacement forced by the government with election money controlled by wealthy interests?
Old Atlantic, Atlantic City, NJ
Oh come off it. Really, George Bush snr was Vice Pres for 8 years and then was elected President. Nixon was VP for 8 years and then became President later on. Gore tried the same and missed out. So what is the problem with Putin being President and then going down the rung and becoming PM? Let's grow up and stop using double standards for Russia when looking at their style of politics. How about criticising the Bush-Clinton years. We've nearly had 20 years of those and if Hillary gets elected, the US and the world will have had 24 at the least. Now that situation in a country of 300 million does need looking at. It's political dynasty at its worst and in the US it's far worse as millions of $$ goes into electing any candidate to become Head of State. Leave Putin alone and let the Russians elect him if they want to.
Anthony George, London, UK
I am in russia at the moment and there is no freedom of the media.Gary Kasperov is at least trying but he is being blocked from appearing on any media.People here are not kept informed of the true facts about the world or their country.Putin has no intention of giving up power to anyone.So much for democracy
dan hughes, wonthaggi, victoria Australia
A typical Soviet type move. I remember in the late 1980s a Soviet Minister becoming a trade leader in London where he could indulge himself freely. His new 'boss' was under no illusion who was still in charge.
Geoff, Huddersfield, UK
Geoff Stainton, Huddersfield, UK
uh, Yuri,
I assume you are talking about the Bush family, In which two family members have been elected to three of the last 5 terms.
The key is elected, not appointed. Should Hilary Clinton get elected next November, it would still not be a dynasty, as you call it, because American elections, despite the flaws, are very fair, and our Constitution protects against one man ruling for years and years.
Mike, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Putin is just as much a democrat, in fact more so, than American politicians such as Hillary Clinton. Putin has one thing most Western leaders do not-- he actually cares about his country and his people. For him, power isn't about self-glorification, but rather public service.
Western democracy is a failure. Putin is thus faced with the difficult path of finding another way to protect freedom and promote prosperity, while avoiding the self-destructive pitfalls of the Western liberal/socialist model.
John, Washington, DC,
man, you europeans who praise Putin are so easily manipulated. The man controls the press, the governement, the biggest businesses, which parties can run for office, which parties get fair press exposure on tv, the FSB, etc.
What other option is left when the power in charge decrees there is only one choice?
Enjoy totalitarism. Again.
mike, New York, New York
Although this small number of comments can hardly be representative, it is worryingly ill-informed. Russia is miserably polarised between the rich and comfortable who have everything to lose by speaking out and the poor who have no power or influence.
"Putin has served his country well, which is what he is paid to do." - Putin's secheming and occasional sub-cold war sabre-rattling outbursts are alarming at best, delusional at worst.
"Please, do not export your visions of democracy, and do not look down at others, if you can't make it work at home!" - hyperbole of the worst kind. Democracy may be by nature imperfect but it is closer to perfect in the UK than in Russia where opposition and the press are intimidated and the presidency verges on a cult of personality.
"Mr.Putin is the only capable person to continue to lead Russia's stability" - and there we have it. What price stability? The death of freedom...
Jonathan M Smith, Edinburgh, UK
It would be good to see a patriot as the leader of England. Democracy has failed in Britain in the last five years. Putin has served his country well, which is what he is paid to do.
Tony G, Harrogate,
Mr.Putin is the only capable person to continue to lead Russia's stability,he's just a great leader.
Wanda Fischetti, Roma, Italy
Um, is the times on line an American Site? How conme America gets dragged into every discussion? But the way commies, the USA is not a democracy, we are a constitutionally limited republic. Bush & Clinton were elected and Clinton/Gore willingly gave up power in 2000, will Bush in '08. Big difference between that and Commrade Putin. Enjoy your dictatorship. Life was much better, I am sure under the old Soviet Union. I'm sure the walls were there to keep us out rather than you in.
Fred, Sparta, USA/Mi
Bruce, I am sorry to tell you but it was actually bad for americans to choose not to think when you elected your current president.
Before judge anyone's choice make sure your own choice is better. Otherwise such comments as yours are simply nonsense.
Alex, Moscow,
What nonsense. How can he be acting outside the requirements of the constitution and not be breaking any laws?!?
He is popular and acting within the law of the land and he has every right to do so.
People like Binyon will criticize him whatever he does because they know that he is making Russia a genuine player on the world stage. He is taking Russia outside the control of the 'international community'. And they don't want to see that happen.
David Goldman, London, UK
Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton? is that what you call a democracy? Americans must stop preaching democracy if they can't have it at home.
Fran, Mexico City, Mexico
"Technically, he will break no law...But to bend constitutional arrangements..."
So the first or the second? I don't remember which article of the Constitution claims that the former President can't become prime minister through a legitimate path.
artem, Samara, RF
C'mon. Give me a break.
Have a look at your right for a split second: when an American dinasty rules for 16 years in last 24 - that is a shocking example of democracy!
Please, do not export your visions of democracy, and do not look down at others, if you can't make it work at home!
Yuri, Moscow,
Countries where elections mean something get the govenrments they vote for ergo they get the governments they deserve. The Russians knew what they were voting for when they elected Putin to a second term as President. If they elect him to parliament and he becomes Prime Minister then they will get what they deserve. After the fall of Communism they were led to the horse trough of democracy., Too bad for them they chose not to drink.
Bruce L. Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA
The biggest enemy to democracy in Russia has been British and American attempts to fund the opposition and manipulate the democratic outcomes. Putin's reactions are understandable in that context so I would not say Putin was the greatest threat to Russian democracy. We have only ourselves to blame in our shallow attempts to rape Russia of its resources under Yeltsin.
Neil, Chessington, Surrey