The paradox of Russia's parliamentary election campaign is that it has been all about Vladimir Putin's future as the leader of Russia - even though he is not a candidate.

President Putin does appear on the ballot paper, as head of the election list for United Russia, the party that will score a sweeping victory in today's poll. Few expect him actually to take a seat in the parliament, the Duma, however, so those who vote for him are being sold a false prospectus.

Instead, the party has turned the election into a referendum on Mr Putin's popularity, as a prelude to anointing him Russia's "National Leader" when his second term as president comes to an end in March.

A big turnout is needed to legitimise this piece of political manoeuvring, as there is no such position in Russia's constitution. Mr Putin has encouraged the clamour by declaring that a big victory for United Russia will give him the "moral authority" to retain influence over the government.

If this appears dangerously close to the start of a dictatorship, it's important to state that Mr Putin is highly popular, after presiding over eight years of stability and unprecedented prosperity for many Russians.

A majority would happily vote him in for a third term, but that is forbidden under the Constitution. And so the Kremlin has engaged in an ever more contorted dance to keep Mr Putin in charge without remaining in office.

Thus we find him considered the leader of the United Russia party, whereas in reality he is not even a member.

United Russia has based its entire campaign on a single slogan - support for "Putin's Plan" - without ever explaining what that means.

The power of other parties to challenge or present an alternative to Mr Putin have been diminished by recent electoral reforms, which have the squeeze on smaller and pro-Western parties.

Individual constituencies have been abolished and MPs are voted in by party on a list system, unlike the last Parliament where one quarter of MPs were independent candidates. Only parties with more than seven per cent of the vote will get any representation at all, up from five per cent.

Opposition parties have never entertained any hope of victory under this "managed democracy" constructed by the Kremlin in recent years.

Moreover, they complain that "administrative resources" have been used to influence the outcome, the state and bureaucratic levers being pulled to ensure that the numbers are delivered for United Russia.

State employees have reported threats to their jobs from superiors who demand that they support the ruling party. Some groups, such as teachers, have been ordered to vote at their places of work, where they can be kept under a watchful eye by state officials, even though the election is on a Sunday.

The election result has never been in doubt, but the margin of victory is vital for Mr Putin to claim a popular mandate to retain power. A low turnout would cast a shadow over the Kremlin's strategy, but reports on Russian media today all stress that record numbers are coming out to vote.

It will deliver a parliament entirely subservient to Mr Putin, who has already declared that the result will "set the tone" for the presidential ballot on March 2.

Many analysts believe that he is paving the way for a swift return to the Kremlin for a third term as president, getting around the constitutional ban by installing a place-man as a token leader for a few months.

A "popular mandate" today will bolster the Kremlin's confidence in the ability of managed democracy to deliver a predictable result and ensure that Russia goes back to the future with Mr Putin.

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