The prospect of a new Balkans conflict came closer last night after Serbia made threats of “war” with the breakaway province of Kosovo.

After a four-month peace initiative failed to resolve the fate of the disputed territory, European diplomats, and even the Pope, made fresh appeals for Serbs and Albanians to avoid violence.

Nato foreign ministers will meet in Brussels today to discuss contingency measures should violence flare.

Concerns grew after Aleksandar Simic, adviser to Vojislav Kostunica, the Serbian Prime Minister, said that his country would defend its sovereignty “using all means” at its disposal.

“The State has no recourse other than war when someone does not respect the UN Security Council,” he told Serbian state television.

“Serbia has had negative experiences from certain armed clashes during the civil wars in the former Yugoslavia, and this is why we are more prudent and cautious now, but, of course, state interests are defended by war,” said Mr Simic, a member of the Serb negotiating team.

His remarks provoked an angry response from Wolfgang Ischinger, the Germany Ambassador to London and EU peace envoy, whose 120-day diplomatic mission to find a settlement to the dispute expires at the weekend.

He insisted that he, and two colleagues from Russia and America, had left “no stone unturned” in their search to accommodate Serbia's demands that Kosovo remain part of its territory, and the aspirations of the majority Albanian population who want Kosovo to become independent.

Mr Ischinger said yesterday that it was “inadmissible and intolerable” that even before his report was submitted to the United Nations, one of the parties was already muttering darkly about a new war.

Nevertheless, the outburst of the Serb official simply reflected the sentiments of many of his countrymen, who believe that the West is about to create a new state at the expense of their sovereign territory.

Once the failure of the peace mission is formally reported to the UN Security Council, Kosovo could win its independence in the coming weeks.

America is already committed to the move. Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, said yesterday there was a “logic” to it.

The US is likely to be joined by the end of the year by most of the states in the European Union, including Britain, France, Germany and Italy. Statehood for Kosovo was inevitable and “the only realistic solution” said Albert Rohan, a deputy UN special envoy.

The West is expected to propose “supervised independence” that would recognise Kosovo as an independent country, but under EU supervision with Nato forces providing security.

Support for such an unprecedented move is based on the belief that Serbia relinquished its rights to rule the province after its forces were responsible for mass murder and the deportation of thousands of Albanians before the Nato intervention in 1999.

Mr Kostunica, however, said yesterday that such a move would “legalise” the Nato bombing campaign and that there was no such thing as supervised independence.

“Supervision and independence are concepts that exclude each other,” said the Serbian Prime Minister. “In recent history, the right name for a supervised state is a puppet state.”

Serbia's political and military options are limited in the face of such a powerful alliance. But it could encourage instability in Kosovo, particularly the northern part of the province dominated by Serbs, or it could also disrupt EU stabilisation efforts in the Balkans.

The Serbs can also expect strong support for their cause from a resurgent Russia under President Putin.

Moscow has threatened to veto any proposal before the UN that would grant Kosovo independence without the consent of its Orthodox brethren in Serbia. The Kremlin has also threatened to follow the West's lead in pro-Russian breakaway enclaves like Transdnistria, in Moldova, and the separatist provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

BREAKING AWAY

South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two breakaway regions of Georgia, have declared themselves independent. Russia has backed both areas informally and issued passports to residents and allowed them to vote in recent elections

The Republika Srpska, a Serb enclave in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has sought independence, would provide an opportunity for Russia and Serbia to follow a “Kosovo precedent” and unilaterally recognise an independent Balkan state

The Russian-speaking Transdnistria region of Moldova has been in a chaotic state of semi-succession for more than a decade, issuing its own currency and electing a parallel administration. Russia has a strong influence over the Crimean region of the Ukraine and has indirectly fostered protests against joint Ukraine/Nato operations in the region.

Sources: Open Democracy; Centre for Strategic Decision Research; Time archives

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