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PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin could remain in power for at least another five years as leader of a new state born of a union between Russia and Belarus, the former Soviet republic.
A merger between the two neighbours was the main topic of discussion last week during Putin’s first official state visit to Belarus since 2003. Coming only three months before he is due to step down in accordance with the Russian constitution, which bars presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms, the visit has been described by Kremlin sources as “extremely significant”.
Insiders said the real purpose of the trip to see Alexander Lukashenko, the dictatorial president of Belarus, was to try to hammer out a unification treaty and agree on who would lead the new state as president.
A draft constitution would give the leader of a single Russian-Belarussian state power over both national governments for at least one term of five or seven years. If agreed, it would be put to voters in both countries. Putin could then become president of the new state and Lukashenko his vice-president.
In the event of such an agreement, Putin, 55, is unlikely to make an announcement about his future until after Russia’s presidential elections in March. Last week he threw his weight behind Dmitry Medvedev, a deputy prime minister and chairman of the energy giant Gazprom, as his successor.
A day later Medvedev, 42, who has worked alongside Putin for 17 years, returned the favour by proposing that if he were elected president, his mentor should be prime minister.
Kremlin sources said Putin might still accept the Russian prime ministership but was taken with the idea of becoming president of a new Russian-Belarussian state.
“Becoming prime minister after having been president for eight years is a bit humiliating,” said a Kremlin aide. “No matter how much power Putin would wield, it would still be seen as a step backwards in his eyes.”
Russia and Belarus agreed to boost ties in 1997 in the days of Boris Yeltsin, Putin’s predecessor, but attempts to form a union have so far failed. The main stumbling block has been Lukashenko, an erratic figure whom Putin is said to dislike and mistrust.
Relations between the neighbouring states have been tense lately. Earlier this year the Kremlin threatened to cut off gas supplies to Belarus, prompting Lukashenko to warn that he “would never kneel down” before Moscow.
If the two presidents fail to reach an agreement, Putin could accept the job of prime minister and make a series of constitutional changes to increase the powers of that office.
Earlier this month United Russia, Putin’s party, won an overwhelming majority in parliamentary elections. Its dominance of the Duma, the lower house, means that a vote on changes to the constitution supported by Putin would pass without opposition.
“Make no mistake, Medvedev may be different from his master but the real power in the Kremlin after the March elections will be with Putin,” said Alexei Venediktov, Russia’s most respected opposition journalist. “Whether as president of a new state or as a powerful prime minister, Putin will be the one calling the shots.”
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