Kosovo’s imminent unilateral declaration of independence is set to drive deep divisions in the international community, with Russia and the European Union at loggerheads over the planned breakaway from Belgrade

Even within the EU, which will help the former Yugoslav province to implement its plans to become a separate sovereign state, three members are expected to reject formal recognition of the new-look Kosovo, and others will bide their time before coming to a decision.

Russia warned the West today that recognition of Kosovo’s independence would affect its attitude towards two breakaway regions of neighbouring Georgia.

The Foreign Ministry in Moscow stopped short of saying that Russia would recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which declared independence from Georgia in the early 1990s in wars that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

But it said: “The declaration and recognition of the independence of Kosovo will doubtless have to be taken into account as far as the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is concerned.”

Kosovo will make its declaration on Sunday and the following day, David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, will announce Britain’s immediate recognition of the new state by exchanging letters with his counterpart in the former Yugoslav province. The United States will also immediately recognise Kosovo.

Mr Miliband will make Britain’s position clear after a meeting of the EU General Affairs Council on Monday. The three EU states expected to reject recognition of Kosovo are: Cyprus, Slovakia and Romania. France, Germany, Italy and possibly Poland are expected to join Britain with instant recognition, but others, including Spain, Greece and The Netherlands, are likely to delay a decision. The Dutch say they have to get approval from their parliament.

Inside Kosovo itself, the momentous decision is not expected to lead to violence and bloodshed between the majority ethnic Albanians and minority Serbs. Diplomatic sources said that the Serbs who lived in communities in the north, close to the border with Serbia, were the most likely to voice their anger at Sunday's announcement in Pristina, the Kosovan capital.

However, Belgrade has pledged that it is not planning any form of military action - nor will it end diplomatic relations with Britain or any other countries which recognise the breakaway republic - and any public opposition by the Serbs in the north will be tempered by the presence of 15,000 Nato troops which are still on duty in Kosovo.

The Russians are expected to demand an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council after Kosovo’s declaration. President Putin has already warned the West that Moscow had plans ready for when Kosovo declared independence.

The Russian foreign ministry said that Western recognition of Kosovo “presupposes a revision of commonly accepted norms and principles of international law”.

Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would almost certainly trigger a war with Georgia, which insists that they are part of its territory. Formally, Russia supports Georgia’s territorial integrity. But it has granted Russian citizenship to most of the people living in the two provinces and maintains peacekeeping troops there.

Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili has repeatedly accused Moscow of trying to destabilise his country by aggravating divisions with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He came to power on a pledge to recover the two provinces and reunify Georgia.

Russia rejects the argument of the US and some EU countries that Kosovo is a unique case that sets no precedent for other separatist movements.

The leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia made clear that they regard Kosovo as a model for their own claims. Abkhazia’s President Sergei Bagapsh said: "We have been watching the Kosovo situation very closely and we will announce our further steps if Kosovo declares its independence.”

Events are also being studied in neighbouring Armenia and Azerbaijan which are locked in another “frozen conflict” over the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian-dominated enclave has had de facto independence from Azerbaijan since a bitter war ended in a ceasefire in 1994.

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