There was hardly a seat to be found in Pristina’s bars and restaurants this weekend. So much for the unconvincing pleas of detractors that an independent Kosovo would become Europe’s first Islamic state.

Kosovo has always worn its religion lightly, and no more so than this weekend when it celebrated independence with an orgy of carousing amid a rainbow of Albanian and foreign flags.

No Muslim country in the world boasts the pro-Western fervour of the Albanians of Kosovo. Kosovans know to whom they owe their independence, and nine years after the Nato campaign put them on the road to yesterday’s announcement their gratitude is undiminished.

“Thank you” read posters around Pristina bearing the names of the countries – most prominently Britain, Germany and the US – that pressed for the Nato intervention that drove Serbian forces from Kosovo in 1999. It is those nations that will have to deal with the global hangover long after Kosovo’s Albanians have staggered home with their prize of independence.

Serbia’s insistence that secession will unleash “a disaster of unfathomable proportions” may be overstated, but Russia’s muscle-flexing on Belgrade’s behalf only adds to the tensions building up with the West on everything from gas supplies and missile defences to the Kremlin’s alleged assassination of dissidents abroad.

Europe cannot claim unity on Kosovo despite its mission to take over from the UN administration in Kosovo. While Britain, France, Germany and Italy will lead the field of recognitions of an independent Kosovo, Greece, Spain, Slovenia and Bulgaria will hold back, nervous that the move would embolden their own secessionist fringes. Cyprus, fearful of setting a precedent for the unilateral succession of its Turkish-ruled northern half, will probably never recognise Europe’s newest state.

Neither, without Russia’s say so, will the UN. Russia’s stance on Kosovo is less about its support for Serbia and more about itself — its ability to hold on to its own separatist fringes.

In legal terms Russia may have the stronger case. The official case for Kosovo’s independence by the US and EU is based on a disputed reading of the UN resolution that ended the war with Slobodan Milosevic. That resolution put Kosovo under UN guardianship and called for a “political solution to the Kosovo crisis” without specifying what that should be.

Russia’s case is far more simple: given that Serbia has not agreed to let Kosovo go and there is no Security Council resolution forcing it to do so, independence stands in breach of international law. Both cases carry weight in the absence of one internationally recognised standard for independence.

All of which has less to do with Kosovo than the precedent its case sets. As the US envoy reminded the Security Council on Friday, it was Milosevic’s brutality that convinced the West to end Belgrade’s rule there rather than any historical claim against Serbian sovereignty.

Russia’s options may be limited. But this is a more assertive Russia than nine years ago, and even then it did not take the insult of the Nato invasion lying down. One oft-forgotten detail of the war is the three-day standoff with Nato after Russian troops seized Pristina airport in a bid to partition Kosovo.

Nobody really expects a column of Russian tanks to pour into Pristina today. But neither can they afford to dismiss Russia’s rhetoric. When Nato’s commander realised Kosovo’s integrity was at stake he ordered a blockade to stop Russian planes from landing. General Sir Michael Jackson refused. The stakes were higher than a future small Balkan state, he said. “Sir, I’m not starting World War III for you.”

After the break-up of Yugoslavia

Kosovo covers 4,170 square miles (10,800 sq km); population 2 million; GDP £1.77 billion
Croatia covers 21,800 square miles; population 4.5 million; GDP £25.93 billion
Serbia covers 34,000 square miles; population 10.2 million; GDP £20.86 billion
Bosnia and Herzegovina cover 19,700 square miles; population 4.5 million; GDP £7.22 billion
Macedonia covers 9,800 square miles; population 2.1 million; GDP £3.49 billion
Albania covers 11,000 square miles, population 3.6 million, GDP £5.7 billion
Montenegro covers 5,400 square miles; population 700,000, GDP £1.15 billion

Source: Kosovo Government, CIA World Factbook

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