Tony Halpin in Moscow
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Up to a third of votes cast for Dmitri Medvedev to be Russia's next President were likely to have been rigged, a comprehensive new study of the election results has found.
Millions of votes for the Kremlin's favoured candidate were the product of mass fraud or the use of “administrative resources” by government officials to pressure state employees into supporting Mr Medvedev, the study states.
The results inflated Mr Medvedev's margin of victory and the overall turnout, making it appear that he enjoyed massive popular support as Vladimir Putin's chosen successor.
The scale of manipulation was exposed by Sergei Shpilkin, a physicist and computer programmer, who concluded that 14.8 million of the 52.5 million votes cast for Mr Medvedev could not be explained in any other way.
He also calculated that only 56 per cent of Russians had voted, instead of the 69.7 per cent officially declared by the Central Election Commission (CEC).
“It is a combination of fraud and administrative resources and it is difficult to distinguish between them,” said Mr Shpilkin. “One vote in three is not explainable and probably the administrative factor is a little more than that.
“I don't think it was really necessary to do all this pressure and rigging because he would easily have won without it.”
Mr Medvedev won 70.3 per cent officially but Mr Shpilkin calculated that it was just under 63 per cent once “abnormal” voting was discounted.
On a reduced turnout, this meant that only a third of Russia's 100 million voters supported Mr Medvedev, far from the overwhelming endorsement claimed by the Kremlin.
Mr Shpilkin analysed the ballot returns from electoral commissions throughout Russia, published on the CEC website. He presented his research at a seminar on Wednesday organised by the Carnegie Centre in Moscow.
He found that unusually high numbers of polling stations had reported turnout and percentage results for Mr Medvedev that ended in a five or zero. Support for the candidate also followed unusual patterns.
Voting in normal elections usually follows a bell curve, rising gradually on one side to a plateau representing the average level of support before sloping down again.
Mr Shpilkin found that Mr Medvedev's support appeared normal until it reached 60 per cent, then continued to hit a series of sharp spikes instead of sloping down.
The spikes matched percentages ending in five or zero, showing that disproportionate numbers of polling stations had reported these results.
Sergei Shulgin, an election analyst at the Institute for Applied Economics, said the anomalies showed that local officials had tried to impress their superiors by “improving the results”.
Andrei Buzin, the head of the Interregional Association of Voters, said that the study revealed “blatant manipulation” of the results.
The analysis adds force to criticism by international observers that the election was neither free nor fair. They infuriated the Kremlin by concluding that Russia's “democratic potential was unfortunately not tapped”, although they acknowledged that the result reflected the popular will.
The CEC has rejected any criticism of the conduct of the election. But it found itself unwittingly confirming claims of manipulation when it presented awards to polling agencies that accurately forecast the presidential results.
The company that won the prize for predicting turnout said that its methods took account of the number of votes that would be added through government pressure.
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Alex, the reason that large parts of the Russian media are under state influence is because they had to be taken back from the parasitic oligarchs who were using them purely to further increase their stranglehold on the country.
State owned media might not always be ideal for the free and uncensored dissemination of information, but it is far better than when it is in the hands of the likes of the greedy and megalomaniacal oligarchs who plundered Russia of so much of its wealth.
And donât kid yourself that the British media is free from government censorship. Ever heard of a D-Notice?
It may be hard to accept, but Britain has by far the most corrupt rulers in Europe. And I repeat that Russia, by comparison, is more democratic, more open, and gives its citizens far more individual freedom than we have. No other people on earth are more spied on by the state than the British. No other country on Earth forcibly takes and keeps DNA samples from citizens who have committed no crimes.
Harvey, Birmingham, UK
Florida 2000 anyone?
Jay Tee, Oxford, UK
Harvey from Birmigham who said: "Compared to Britain, Russia is a paradise of honesty and propriety in government" while listing the numerous failures of the British government and of the parliamentary system.
Although Britain may be corrupt to an extent, the reason it seems so corrupt to Harvey is because he enjoys the vast coverage of the British political scene by independent newspapers, such as this one and television channels. They strive to bring out to light the smallest injustices in the system.
Russians do not enjoy this privilege, especially if they don't use the internet or read small independent newspapers. Corruption in the Russian government is so vast that Russians don't even need to read investigative articles about it because it is so obivous to them. And without the support of the critical media, which would represent and hold the government accountable, they simply give up.
argument.typepad.com
Alex, London,
Paul, you say that the British electoral system is "far from corrupt". Then how would you describe a system in which one party (the Lib Dems) requires three and a half times as many votes to win a seat in Parliament as the ruling Labour Party needs?
And donât take my word for it about fraud and vote rigging by the ruling Labour party. From a BBC report:
_____________________________________
âThe judge in a vote-rigging trial has criticised the postal voting system as "hopelessly insecure" and "wide open to fraud".
âThe High Court judge investigated allegations of vote-rigging in Birmingham's local elections, and concluded that the city's Labour party was involved in electoral fraud.â
_____________________________________
And Benedict Carter, Iâm sorry you have so much contempt for the country you have chosen to live in for 11 years. If it is so bad, why donât you return to your own country rather than continue giving it such a bad name by insulting your current hosts like that?
Harvey, Birmingham, UK
It pains me to say this, but a very large section of my countrymen are in denial about the state of democratic rule and accountability in Britain, and this is evident from some of the responses to this news story.
The facts are that we have an unelected head of state and currently an unelected prime minister. Gordon Brown, the man who is claiming to be speaking for "the world" on the matter of Zimbabweâs democratic shortcomings, was not even elected by his own party, let alone the country. And his party (Labour) is currently running the country with the support of only 28% of the population according to last weekâs Sunday Times poll. So whether Dmitri Medvedevâs support is 70.3% or the 63% Mr Shpilkin is claiming, the fact is that his democratic credentials are way ahead of any that Gordon Brown has or ever will have.
Harvey, Birmingham, UK
To Andrew, Springfield, Illinois, USA
>It surprises me that the Kremlin would still attempt to skew the votes
What makes you think it was Kremlin rigging the votes? I personally think it was initiative by local officials that tried to outdo each other.
rasbaba, new york,
To get back to the topic, massive vote rigging - well we had that here in our local elections. At last revealed and the chap is in prison. But I understand the postal vote [once for the blind and infirm] allows the head of household to vote on a household's [women] behalf. The notionof democracy is soured by such actions.
jane, Whittlesey, UK
Harvey, Birmingham: "Compared to Britain, Russia is a paradise of honesty and propriety in government".
Having lived in the former USSR for more than 11 years, and in Russia for 8 of those, all I want to say to you Harvey is that it is idiotic, simply nonsensical comments like this that utterly devalue and demean these web boards, whether of the Times, the telegraph or of the BBC.
Your comment is pure drivel.
Benedict Carter, Moscow, Russia
Perhaps Carnegie Center should turn its attentive eye on American elections and leave Russians to themselves.
rasbaba, new york,
Andrey, the US Presidential Election is based on the Electoral College which is comprised of a number of Electoral College voters for the winner of each of the 50 states of the USA. For instance, the big state of California has 57 Electoral College votes - 271 Electoral College votes are needed to win the election. So winning California is a huge boost to any Presidential candidate. And, yes, Mr. Bush did win the 2000 election fair and square - 2 independent recounts were doneof the State of Florida - one by the Miami Herald newspaper, and both proved conclusively that Bush won the State of Florida, and thus, the election.
I like Mr. Medvedev and I certainly wish him well - I only hope he can push Putin out of the way so that HE can be the real President of Russia. Moscow is a good place to live with the world's best Metro system, but provincial Russia is very run-down and there is a great need for improvements in healthcare, housing, and recreational pursuits.
Bill Wilkins, Irvine, CA, USA
Not to rain on Mr. Gamble's parade, but the US Supreme Court has at least two Republican justices who dissented in Bush v. Gore - Stevens and Souter. The 2000 American election was shameful, but don't be ridiculous, it's nothing like this.
Jason, New York, NY
To Andrei
I lived in UK and know how corrupt it is. Read Harvey's comment from Birmingham. You may not choose to believe it but he states very inconvinient truth. And untill US and UK will clean their acts up, I see no reason for Putin and Mugabe to listen to the cooks who hide behinds the claims of democracy.
Igor, London, UK
OK, ok, it's all down to mass fraud. Feel better now, britanskies?
Max Pronin, Moscow ,
Pavel,
I admire your line, ' clear democracy', but are you talking about switzerland because it sure as hell cant be Russia!!!
Steve Wood, london, uk
It's quite naive to expect current Russian political system not to rig the votes. It does it, firstly, because of rivalry between the local authorities who'd demonstrate best loyalty. Secondly, the system must not leave a slightest chance to any unexpected outcome.
This naivity reminds me a question once asked by one American journalist: "If Stalin was so bad why people kept voting for him?"
Misha, London,
Actually, both of this is true. Elections were falsified, yes, but Medevedev still has the people's support. As for me, I can't understand, why our government tried so hard to provide Medvedev such a high result, while he would still win in the fair elections, and there wouldn't be a reason for "lack of democracy" critics.
Here's the thing with democracy: it doesn't exist in real world. No universally accepted definition of "democracy" exists, especially with regard to the elements in society which are required for it. USA, UK & France all has different society models, yet all supposed to be good "democracies". In USA the man, who got minority in the elections became the president, yet USA is supposed to be an "ideal democratic country". In Russia the man who really has the people's support gets to be the president, yet somehow it's not "democratic" enough.
We have a lot of bad things in Russia, problems, which truly deserve to be criticized, but don't give us this "democracy" crap.
Andrey, Moscow, Russia
No one of people I know has voted for Medvedev or United Russia on these election. It's quite a number of Russian citizens. Medvedev and United Russia have won. I see only 2 possibilities
- I live in some other country, being in the center of Russia
- the elections have been rigged
Igor, Ekaterinburg, Russia
To Pavel "...I live in Russia and see that Medvedev is supported by many people. .." Its't trueth. I live in Russia too and I know that elections was falsified. The most part of people din't vote for Medvedev! Elections in Russia are only circus.
Andrei, Moscow, Russia
I don't understand the administrative resources part. EVERYONE who is allowed to vote is the subject of political pressures. As long as the nature of pressures don't involve Mugabe-like intimidation or an express-economic-slump to MAKE people vote for this or that party those political pressures are used in every democracy. If voters weren't free to choose there would be no poressure in the first place. Then again vote is secret, remember.
As for the mass fraud part.. what did international observers say?
Rui, Lisbon,
Although the British election system is not perfect, it is far from corrupt - we do not have state pressure to vote for a perticular candidate, we have free press and speech, and we have a political system that allows for free and easy transfer of power ... not bad considering that only a minority ever votes - if we wanted a 'perfect' electoral system, we would need a wholesale reform of 'democracy' in this country, which takes not only political parties to take part, but society as a whole, and until people decide to take any active part in democracy, that will not happen.
Paul Singh, London, UK
Presidents Medvedev and Mugabe of Russia and Zimbabwe respectively, issued a joint press release insisting that elections are free in their countries. If fact they are so free,
they rejoiced, that all the voters of the right mind could vote on the election day as many times as they wanted to!
Andris Heks, Megalong(Sydney), NSW, Australia
Until the UK has a democratic electoral system, who are we to criticise any other country?
Only 21% of eligible voters supported Labour at the last General Election (36% of those who actually voted), yet Labour won with 55% of the seats.
Add to that all the voting fraud that postal voting made possible (all by Labour candidates) in local council elections.
Face it: Britain is corrupt. We have a corrupt Government, a corrupt electoral system, corrupt police (the lies and cover ups of the Menezes case springs to mind), a corrupt CPS (the refusal to prosecute over cash for honours, and much more) and corrupt security services. Why has nobody been prosecuted over the illegal Iraq war or for complicity in the CIA torture flights? Because we live in a society in which the crooks at the top have guaranteed immunity for their crimes - turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
Compared to Britain, Russia is a paradise of honesty and propriety in government.
Harvey, Birmingham, UK
Next you will be telling me that the result of the election was decided by judges appointed by the party to which they awarded the election.
Ho ho ho.
Patrick Gamble, Cheltenham,
It's Mr. Sergei Shpilkin private opinion, nothing more.
I'd admire that elections in Russia weren't as crystally clear as I wanted but I live in Russia and see that Medvedev is supported by many people.
Such "experts" as mr. Shpilkin are nothing more but a puppet in western hands, the new way to press russian government trying to get access to oil and gas recources.
We've already had "clear democracy" and western support in 90-s. I've done had enough of it.
Pavel, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
@Andrew: to discourage the formation of an effective political opposition. With two thirds of potential Russian voters potentially open to opposing the current government - counting all current Medvedev voters as party loyalists, like registered Republicans or Democrats are in the States - it seems probable that a political platform could be assembled which would appeal to a significant number of voters. A institutionalized minority that disagreed with the policies and practices of the current government would make the job of selling those policies and practices to the Russian people more difficult.
Matt Lye, St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada
It was ever so in Russia.
Simon Marshland, Bath, Somerset
It surprises me that the Kremlin would still attempt to skew the votes even though Dmitri was still almost set to win. Why risk losing credibility just to make it look like Dmitri won by a little more than he actually did?
Andrew, Springfield, Illinois, USA
Quite a surprise. Get used to live with these tricks.
Felix, M,
Gee, what a surprise.
Bruce Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA