When President Dimitri Medvedev addresses Russia's political and business elite in St Petersburg today, one man will be noticeably absent.

Vladimir Putin is staying away from the international forum, in a move calculated to demonstrate that he can afford to ignore the President he created. As Prime Minister — and, in theory, deferring to the President — Mr Putin has set his own agenda, meeting foreign leaders and setting the domestic agenda with apparent disregard for Mr Medvedev.

A month after Mr Medvedev's inauguration, nobody in Russia doubts that, as Prime Minister, Mr Putin is still in charge. A bigger question remains unanswered: does he want to orchestrate a slow but genuine transfer of power to his protégé, or he is intent on returning to the Kremlin?

Foreign officials and some Russian observers are starting to speak of a two-year deadline either for Mr Putin, 55, to return — well before the end of a normal presidential term — or for Mr Medvedev to break free of his predecessor and assert his independence.

When Mr Putin presented his list of Cabinet ministers to the new President, it was obvious who really had the power. In the full glare of national television the Prime Minister took his former presidential chair at the left of the Kremlin desk, leaving Mr Medvedev, 42, meekly pulling up the junior seat on the right.

Mr Putin has filled the Government with former Kremlin loyalists. When Mr Medvedev named his own Kremlin appointees, they also turned out to be Mr Putin's men. “There is no such thing as Medvedev's people. They are all Putin's people because Medvedev has not been in a position to cultivate his own,” Masha Lipman, an analyst with the Carnegie Centre in Moscow, said.

The stream of prime ministerial appointments included Mr Medvedev's campaign manager, Sergei Sobyanin, who became the vice-premier in charge of government administration. Mr Sobyanin swapped places with Sergei Naryshkin — who was once a dark-horse contender to succeed as president — who went from the parliamentary White House to the Kremlin as chief of Mr Medvedev's administration.

Mr Naryshkin is a classic Putin man — a former KGB agent and once a colleague in the city government of St Petersburg in the 1990s — and one of his most trusted aides. He and Alexei Gromov, deputy chief of staff in the Kremlin, are apparently there to keep an eye on the President.

Igor Shuvalov, Mr Putin's key economic adviser, was named as first deputy prime minister and will deputise for the Prime Minister when he is out of the country. This has prompted speculation that Mr Shuvalov is being groomed to succeed Mr Putin.

Mr Medvedev even dismissed Russia's Ambassador to the United States, Yuri Ushakov, at Mr Putin's behest. Mr Ushakov is now Cabinet co-ordinator for the Prime Minister's foreign policy — a highly unusual move given that under Russia's Constitution the President is supposed to be responsibile for foreign affairs.The biggest signal that power remains concentrated in Mr Putin's hands came with his creation of a mini-Cabinet to take key policy decisions each week. The praesidium, whose name is strongly reminiscent of the Soviet era, is chaired by Mr Putin and comprises his seven deputy prime ministers and seven other ministers.

These include the Foreign Minister, Interior Minister and Defence Minister — all of whom are supposed to report directly to President Medvedev rather than to Mr Putin. Observers have noted that the praesidium appears to be very similar to the weekly meetings that President Putin held with Cabinet ministers.

“They owe more to Putin for their careers than to Medvedev,” Ms Lipman said. “The whole Russian elite, the people with power and property, are watching and waiting to see which centre of power will be more important. A real transfer of authority is better than Putin coming back, but Putin is definitely concerned to safeguard the property redistribution that took place under his rule, and to secure his own safety.

“Also, he wants to be sure that policy develops in the way he believes to be right. He has an idea of a stronger Russia and wants to make sure that Medvedev doesn't make any mistakes.”

Not everyone is convinced that Mr Putin believes that he alone knows how to run the country. Stanislav Belkovsky, a political analyst and the author of a book on Mr Medvedev entitled The Lesser Evil, dismissed any prospect of a Putin restoration. The former President could have changed the Constitution to stay in power for a third term “with the full support of the Russian people, the elite and even the West”, he said.

“Putin did not do this, so we can be sure he will never come back. I think he will gradually abandon his present position, though he understands that his business interests should be protected.” Mr Belkovsky claimed last December that Mr Putin had amassed a secret fortune of £20billion.

Mr Medvedev would quickly assert his authority, he said. “It doesn't depend on Medvedev's personal qualities. The position itself makes the man. Russia has a proud monarchical tradition and the top throne is the only source of legitimacy and supreme power. The Prime Minister is just the top bureaucrat.”

All the President’s Men?

Sergei Sobyanin

Former vice-premier, now head of government administration. Mr Sobyanin was head of the President’s administration under Mr Putin and ran Mr Medvedev’s election campaign

Sergei Naryshkin

Once regarded as a possible successor to Mr Putin, now chief of Mr Medvedev’s presidential administration. One of Mr Putin’s most trusted allies and a former KGB agent

Alexi Gromov

Former press secretary to Mr Putin, now deputy chief of the presidential administration. With Mr Naryshkin, gives Mr Putin a firm grip on the actions of the President

Igor Shuvalov

Former key economic adviser to Mr Putin, now First Deputy Prime Minister. Will also deputise for Mr Putin when he is abroad. Mr Medvedev reportedly wanted him in the Kremlin. Will be responsible for negotiating Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organisation

Yuri Ushakov

Dismissed by Mr Medvedev as Ambassador to the US, allowing Mr Putin to appoint him as Deputy Cabinet Chief of Staff. Coordinating Mr Putin’s foreign relations, despite Russia’s Constitution giving the President responsibility for foreign affairs

The praesidium, or mini-Cabinet

Created to make policy decisions. Chaired by Mr Putin

Source: Times research

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