On the remote islands of the Irish Republic the first votes were cast in the country’s referendum on the EU Lisbon treaty. On the mainland, as the rest of the country prepared to vote on Thursday, the voices of the “yes” and “no” campaigns began to get shriller and the result was still too close to call.

With a country of four million people deciding the fate of a treaty on behalf of 490 million Europeans, it is little wonder that so much hand-wringing is going on. A recent Irish Times opinion poll that put the “no” camp in the lead has set alarm bells ringing in Brussels and Dublin. If Ireland rejects the treaty — which seeks to reform EU structures by repackaging most of the constitutional plans rejected by France and the Netherlands in 2005 — a new crisis will ensue.

The biggest threat to the treaty is voters who were once unquestioningly pro-European but who have now swung against the EU project.

Paula Tyrrell, a 39-year-old Dubliner and accounts clerk, said: “I was a ‘yes’ at the beginning of this campaign. But I think we’ll lose our influence with this treaty. Europe will be run by so many little politicians — I mean the MEPs. I know we’re being told that won’t be the case, but I’ve done my reading and I’ve made up mind.”

Joanne Stack, 19, an insurance company secretary, said that she would always have been inclined to take the advice of the Government — but not any more. “Our country will have far less of a say; it’ll give big countries more power and we will have less influence. Our special low corporation tax rate will go. The Government says that’s not true but I feel we can’t trust them any more. They want to keep the rest of Europe happy,” she said.

Unique among the 27 member states, Ireland is constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum. The Irish Times, in a weekend editorial entitled “Are we out of our minds?”, summed up what it called the “strange public mood . . . that is anti-establishment . . . a breakdown of trust between the political establishment and the electorate . . . And we are expected to carry the responsibility for the future of the peoples of all other states who have not been allowed to vote.”

One of the reasons being touted for the success of the “no” camp includes an inability on the part ofthe Government and the main opposition to explain it.

Yet more blame is being heaped on “the horses” — a reference to the former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s explanation last week for large sums in his possession which, he said, he had won betting on the races. Mr Ahern was forced to stand down last month over fears that his financial affairs might influence the referendum. Brian Cowen, his successor, said that a “yes” vote was his primary objective.

The latest poll put the “yes” camp ahead with 43 per cent, with the “no” vote at 38 per cent. The “undecided” vote stands at 19 per cent. The result is expected on Friday.

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