David Sharrock, Ireland Correspondent
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Irish leaders were campaigning up to the last moment yesterday in a desperate effort to persuade waverers, with final polls showing the “yes” and “no” camps in the referendum running neck and neck.
“People realise it’s a big decision,” Brian Cowen, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, said on the eve of the vote that is seen as pivotal to the EU’s future. “As we come closer to the day, I’ve always held the belief that the common sense of the Irish people will win out in the end.”
Today the Irish Republic will decide the fate of the Lisbon treaty. Every vote cast is absolutely vital to the outcome of a contest in which less than one per cent of the European Union’s population endorse or reject a blueprint salvaged from the wreck of the European Constitution.
Mr Cowen has been striving since the weekend to present a united front, with more than 90 per cent of the country’s elected politicians endorsing a “yes” vote on the ground of the benefits, past and future, that Ireland reaps from EU membership.
The message has been clouded by the confusion over what is in the treaty and what it will mean for Irish people. The “no” camp insists that it will sound the death knell for the Republic’s low-tax regime that has made it so attractive to US multinational companies.
“Europe has been good for Ireland, Ireland has been good for Europe, and . . . I can confirm without any equivocation there is nothing for us to fear in this treaty,” Mr Cowen said in Longford, in the Irish midlands.
Senior Fianna Fáil strategists are predicting a “yes” victory by a slim margin, but they admit that the turnout will be crucial. In 2001 the Nice treaty referendum was lost, an outcome attributed to a poor 34 per cent turnout, which was deemed to favour the “no” camp. The referendum was rerun a year later and the “yes” camp won in a 49 per cent turnout.
That means that the formidable Fianna Fáil electoral machine will be working flat out today, with party workers ferrying and chivvying voters to the polling stations.
A senior party figure said: “We are predicting a 52-48 per cent share of the votes in favour of a ‘yes’. An Irish Times poll of last week which put the ‘no’ camp five points ahead actually did us a favour. It galvanised our party machine and we detect that since the weekend the ‘no’ vote has peaked and we are resurgent.”
This would follow a pattern set in last year’s general election when Fianna Fáil started badly but gathered momentum to win its third consecutive victory under Bertie Ahern. Mr Ahern was forced to resign last month over lingering questions about his personal finances.
Ireland is the only EU state constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum. Finland, Estonia and Greece became the latest EU countries yesterday to approve the Lisbon treaty by parliamentary vote.
Mr Cowen has cleared his official diary tomorrow to deal with any potential fallout from the result. He was to have attended a peace conference in Donegal.
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If NOs prevail I'll get a good booze to your health and mine too. You are the only hope to get rid of those bloody bureaucrats in Brussel.
freddy, Roma, Italy
I hope the people of Ireland reject this treaty, otherwise no country in Europe can ever be free to rule itself again.
Raoul, London,
Being an Irishman living in Uk,I beg my fellow countrymen to vote No.That would be a vote for the people of Europe not the elites of Europe.They dare not hold a vote here in UK because they know the result will be a resounding NO!.They dare not hold a vote in any EU country.Come on Ireland vote NO!
Pat, Notts, England
Only a fool signs a contract where there is "confusion"!
Vote "no" Ireland - Your be doing a favour to the overlooked element of the EU, the citizens!
Ian, Madrid, Spain
European Democracy pah! Any no vote on a treaty is clearly not accepted, and the referendum is re-run until it produces the right result for the superstate. What kind of democracy is that?
The British people's liberties are under threat from all angles, and yet it is just accepted.
steve, Manchester, uk
Yes come on Ireland - use the consitutional right the rest of us have been denied and show them that we can still think for ourselves...
Spike, High Wycombe, Bucks
I am pro EU but I think this treat is wrong and it will not work well
Tobias, Conner, Glasgow
Hope the Irish vote against it although the EU is the best thing that ever happened to them. Although given that all states refused their electorate a vote, that in itself should cause serious concern. Why would they do that if they believe it's a positive move forward? Can't persuade the electorate
mark connelly, surbiton, surrey
Ireland passe from the last to the first position in Europe and that was possible only thanks to the European Union. This organisation prooved to be able to do great things. Support it, vote yes
Marc, C., Manchester
If the Irish rejecting the treaty allows the rest of Europe to have a say on it, then the Irish should certainly vote 'No'.
The Irish Establishment seems to think that all Irishmen are mindless fools who will vote for the treaty without questioning how it affects them - this is the real problem.
Daniel Tor, Dublin, Ireland
It's entirely up to the Irish to do what they think is best for there country, as Ireland have done well from europe in the past.
But what we need to do here in the U.K is to put pressure on this government for the referendum that we were promised, and given our choice on our own future in Europe
keith, chester, uk
Let them vote yes!
The EU needs this to give it the manoeuvrability to continue to develop. At the moment, it is a bureaucratic nightmare BECAUSE states won't give up a SMALL portion of their autonomy (and they can always opt-out for good).
We need the EU to compete in the changing global economy.
Brijit, Paris,
IRELAND please do not throw our Union away, VOTE YES TO THE REFERENDUM. Probably, if you have a job, a good street to the work, a good school for your children and one of the highest GPD in Europe is thanks to the European Union. Remember that when you vote.
Mike, O´Neil, Ireland
1 % of the EU population gets to vote. Thats democracy for you!
What about all the Parliamentarians that agreed with the Lisbon Treaty? In a democracy they vote for us, don't they? It may be that we sometimes do not like their decisions but at the end of the day they are accountable to us.
Sebastian Prosch, Hull,
I hope to God they wake up and vote YES.
Mark, Ward, Machester
Ireland is not the UK. They are not narrow-minded and selfish. They know what is good for Europe. They will vote YES
Thom, Parker, London
Saying NO to this treaty on one hand and then complaining about the ineffectiveness of European institutions is ludicrous. This document will enable coherent running of an enlarged economic union, for everyones benefit.
Dermot, London/Carlow, Ireland/UK
If Europe was a perfect democracy EVERY citizen in the Union would have had an equal vote: NOT country by country.
The democratic result would have been a YES to the original constitution.
It is time that the Union started acting like a democratic country and not like 27 fighting states.
Peter GODDARD, Le Rouret, France, EU
I'm with Graham and RC. The bruxelliots prepared this treaty behind our backs and had clearly obstructec any poll where that was possible. I am FOR europe but not THIS EUROPE. This is an undemocratic, burocratic, plutocratic europe, one all we democrats deplore and oppose.
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
I couldn't care less what the Irish do. If they want to continue witht the EU madness let them. I want the UK out. I used to be pro EU but it is a failed project. Keynes once said 'when the facts change, I change my mind'. I've changed mine.
chris, reigate,
I don't understand the the mentality that someone would vote "yes" to get away from the UK and be happy to sign up to an even bigger centralised, bureaucratic, self imposed, socialist federal state.
Andy, Stockholm / Chesterfield, England / Sweden
1% of the EU population gets to vote. Thats democracy for you!
How very true. How dare they. The European Politians have already proved themselves thieving untrustworthy charlatans; a "Yes" vote will only succeed in making them even less unaccountable!
Graham , Littlehampton,
Lets get the whole thing defeated and then the UK becomes the" Air Craft Carrier "for the English speaking world into Europe.
EDWARD SYNGE, Tisbury, Wilts
I hope the Irish vote "no."
The sad fact is that the Lisbon treaty creates exactly the wrong kind of unification. It is a centralization of bureaucracy. Dictatorial oppression is worse than managerial nanny-ism, but they both suck the vitality from the people.
Let's hope Eire saves your bacon.
R.C., Chapel Hill, NC, USA
I hope they vote yes.
I don't really care about the uk but who cares.
I just wish they vote yes then the uk can leave us alone and handle themself.
ramon, rotterdam, netherlands
Europe is in a really difficult situation. There are more and more issues that cannot be solved by individual nations and where cooperation is absolutely needed. But illogical sentiments against the EU forced europe's ministers to adopt the treaty without public vote. Who's right?
Anthony, Amsterdam,
For the sake of democracy and to give a voice to the millions of other European citizens denied the democratic right to vote on this treaty I hope the Lisbon Treaty is rejected. I am Irish but won't be at home to vote, now hearing that every single vote counts I wish I was.
Please vote NO!
Martin O'Regan Pevchikh, Cork, Ireland
I hope to God they all wake up and vote NO.
Mike L, Manchester, UK
1% of the EU population gets to vote. Thats democracy for you!
Arthur, Newcastle,