It looks like a clear 'no' vote at the moment. The counters are being watched closely by the tallymen, the men with the clipboards who tally the individual ballots for the various parties. Politicians are drifting in and out conferring with them. There is a lot of tension.

I'm told that in Dublin Central, that's Bertie Ahern's constituency, it's going 58 per cent 'no' against 42 per cent for the treaty. If Fianna Fail cannot get out the vote there - their electoral machine is nowhere stronger - then they are in trouble.

And I've just been speaking to Garret FitzGerald, a former Taoiseach and very experienced tallyman. He's a fantastic number cruncher, and he says that it looks like the 'no' vote has won with 55 per cent.

In Dublin North West and Dublin Central the 'no' vote seems to be well ahead. That's not unexpected: those are working class areas and that's what happened with the Nice Treaty back in 2001. In the southern constituencies, which are more suburban and more middle class, the 'yes' vote appears to be narrowly ahead.

What seems to be happening, too, is that the votes from the working class constituencies are being counted first, so the totals could get closer. But it still looks like the 'no' vote will win.

The crucial factor is going to be turnout and it's not clear how high it was. Last night a Government source told me that it was approaching 50 per cent; this morning they're talking about a figure closer to 40 per cent.

In 2001, the Nice Treaty, setting up the EU for enlargement, was lost on a turnout of 34 per cent. A year later it was rerun, the turnout was 49 per cent and it was won. The theory runs that the 'no' vote is much more committed so the lower the turnout the greater the expectation of a 'no' victory.

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