I have never met anyone more acutely insecure than Radovan Karadzic. His belief that he was possessed of an unrecognised genius persuaded him to engage in ever more frantic attempts to gain attention. Eventually this obsession with how others would regard him led to mass murder and genocide. His arrest marks a turning point in the history of the Balkans that could well lead to Europe’s powder keg being defused once and for all.

Among many other curious attributes, Radovan Karadzic was the founder of Bosnia’s first Green Party in 1989. Convinced that green politics would be the leading force in postcommunist Yugoslavia, he built his own bandwagon. Seeing that nobody wanted to jump on it, he abandoned his commitment to the environment as quickly as he had discovered it. As with most things, he put this failure down to the snobs of the Sarajevo elite. Similarly, he resented the sophisticates in Belgrade. When he moved to the Yugoslav capital in the 1980s to work in one of the country’s biggest hospitals he complained that they, too, looked down on him as a bumpkin.

Then along came two characters who were to provide Dr Karadzic with the platform that he craved. The first was a Serb historian, Milorad Ekmecic, who had an international reputation for his work on 19th-century Bosnia and convinced Dr Karadzic that the break-up of Yugoslavia provided an epochal opportunity to establish a new Greater Serbian state.

If it had been down to Dr Karadzic and his coffeehouse pals, their new Serbian Democratic Party would have got nowhere. But then his empty vessel was filled with a toxic cargo of minions sent from Belgrade by character No 2, Slobodan Milosevic. Dr Karadzic’s attitude changed almost overnight. He started bullying his opponents – Muslims, Croats and liberal Serbs – who refused to share his vision of a Bosnia sliced down the middle between Croatia and Serbia.

As Bosnia descended into war, Dr Karadzic revelled in the pomp that accompanied his self-proclaimed presidency of the Bosnian Serb Republic. As the numbers slaughtered by his forces rose, he never missed a chance to parade in front of the cameras. He especially enjoyed emerging from his mansion in Geneva to negotiate with the likes of Lord Owen, Cyrus Vance or Richard Holbrooke. At last, the whole world was watching.

Now the world watches again with much greater satisfaction. Dr Karadzic’s arrest is likely to prove a moment of historical significance. The Serbian President, Boris Tadic, has recently sworn in a government that at last shares his commitment to bringing Dr Karadzic and the former General Ratko Mladic to justice. Nonetheless, no one should underestimate the courage that it took to pick up Dr Karadzic. Serbia recently had to swallow the humiliation of the US and most EU states recognising Kosovo, so it is very hard to convince ordinary Serbs that pursuing a pro-European policy is in their best interests.

The arrest will now trigger an avalanche of goodwill in Brussels. Indeed, there is little doubt that the events of Monday night were carefully timed to gain maximum publicity for the Serbian authorities. This is a shrewd political move: after the Irish “no” vote to the Lisbon treaty, Belgrade is aware that enlargement fatigue is spreading across Europe and even infecting some key governments. This means that the new, pro-European forces in Belgrade are in a race against time. They hope to be named as a candidate for EU membership by the end of the year, which would put them on a par with Croatia. The prospect of EU membership for both countries significantly reduces the chances of a destabilised Bosnia-Herzegovina. It will also help in the resolution of the issue of Kosovo.

Serbia is not yet off the hook. It will have to intensify its efforts to find Mr Mladic, the man who eagerly coordinated the butchery.

Now Dr Karadzic can once again enjoy the limelight – this time in the dock at The Hague. For the first time since he rose to prominence in 1991 the man’s desperate desire for public affirmation will have a positive outcome. Reconciliation in Bosnia will receive an important boost. Equally importantly, Serbia, Bosnia and the entire region can say farewell to two centuries of bloody history.

— Misha Glenny is a Balkan specialist. His most recent book is McMafia: Crime without Frontiers

The years of hate

1991: Croatia and Slovenia proclaim independence

1992: In Bosnia-Herzegovia, Muslims and Croats vote for independence in referendum boycotted by Bosnian Serbs April: EU recognises Bosnia’s independence. War breaks out after Serbs, under Karadzic, lay siege to Sarajevo and engage in “ethnic cleansing”

1993: Bosnian Croats and Muslims fight over remaining 30 per cent of Bosnia not seized by Serbs March: US-brokered agreement ends Muslim-Croat war

1995: Bosnian Serb troops capture Srebrenica, killing 8,000. UN war crimes tribunal indicts Karadzic December: Dayton peace accord

1999: Karadzic goes on run

2008: Karadzic arrested

Source: Times Archive

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