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SPAIN and Portugal have confirmed that they are to hold referendums on the European constitution, bringing to nine the number of countries due to hold them.
Although both referendums are highly likely to support the constitution, the decision of Spain and Portugal adds pressure to hold referendums in other countries, notably France, where the vote would be more uncertain.
After the constitution was agreed between EU leaders last week, all 25 EU countries now have two years to ratify it, either through a parliament or a referendum. All countries must ratify the constitution for it to take affect, although if only five or fewer countries fail to ratify it, the treaty will automatically be renegotiated.
José Manuel Durão Barroso, the Portuguese Prime Minister, said: “I had said there would be a referendum on the treaty if it contained new measures which are relevant for Europe and for Portugal, and that is the case.”
José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero, the Spanish Prime Minister, told his parliament that he wanted to hold a referendum early next year: “The Government has the intention of holding a referendum so that all the citizens can say what they think of the European constitution.”
The Irish Republic, Britain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Czech Republic are set to hold plebiscites. EU leaders are keen that those countries most likely to pass the referendum will hold them earliest so that they create a bandwagon for the “yes” vote.
They want to avoid a situation where an early “no” vote in one country sways the vote in countries voting afterwards.
Señor Zapatero, whose country is almost certain to approve the constitution, said: “I hope this referendum takes place as quickly as possible and that Spain will be among the first EU countries to ratify the constitution.”
In contrast, Britain, probably the most eurosceptic country to hold a referendum, is expected to hold it last, in 2006.
President Chirac of France, who was furious at Tony Blair’s referendum decision, is coming under mounting pressure to follow suit. His own Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, and his own political party UMP, have both called for a referendum.
This week Jacques Delors, the former European Commission President, said: “There has to be a referendum. It’s not possible to do this any other way, although the risk is a bit like Russian roulette.”
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President who led the drafting of the constitution, said after it was agreed: “It’s hard to imagine Chirac refusing to put the matter to the people, even if he has the right to do so.”
In Poland, politicians accept that a referendum is inevitable to give legitimacy to the constitution, which was agreed by the current caretaker Government. Eurosceptic parties, such as the Polish Families League, did spectacularly well in the recent European elections.
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