Briefing from Bronwen Maddox
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The conflict between Georgia and Russia would have exploded anyway, in some form, were Nato to have pressed ahead with offering Georgia a start on the road to membership, possibly at its meeting at the end of the year. The eruption on Friday should not deter Nato from taking that step soon.
Of course, many Nato members will consider how, had Georgia already been a member, they would have had to defend it. Germany will win more support for its argument, which dominated the Nato summit in April, that it would be wrong to offer membership for fear of provoking Russia and while its territory remains in dispute. Alarm at this near-war on Europe’s borders will easily persuade more governments of the need for caution.
That would be wrong. It would tell Russia that it had an effective veto over who joined Nato. It would discourage the pro-American and pro-European spirit of President Saakashvili, elected in 2004 partly for those sentiments. It might even make it harder to agree the deployment of international peacemakers in South Ossetia by showing that the US and Europe were indifferent to Georgia’s case.
There appear to have been serious miscalculations, more so on the Georgian side. Given the close contact with the US, that might be extended to the US as well. Saakashvili may have deluded himself that four years of US help in equipping his armed forces enabled them to make a dash for their prize. In taking advantage of the distraction of the Olympics, he looks sneaky, and so jeopardises his claim to the moral high ground.
But Russia, in the drama of its move inside internationally recognised Georgian sovereign borders, has escalated the dispute to a level that demands a formal response. At the very least it has sacrificed prospects for the defence pact with Europe that it has mooted.
The Nato summit was a clash of philosophies about Europe’s future. On one side was President Bush, making one of his best speeches, about the value of bringing Georgia and Ukraine into Nato as an assertion of common principles. On the other was Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, laying out why this should be postponed, perhaps for ever, even at the cost of undermining the pro-Western camp in Georgia. (British officials let it be known that they were on the American side in sympathy, but as the US would not win, they were “on the side of compromise”.)
Merkel won. But one important concession was made: the promise of membership at some point. Of course, the clash makes it important that the South Ossetia question begins to be resolved, by exploring the offers of autonomy made by Saakashvili and whether a force with an international mandate might replace the Russian force that has lost any claim to be neutral. But there are precedents (Turkey and Greece) for including members within Nato who have unresolved territorial questions.
One of the uses of Nato is to draw a line between countries that share principles and those that do not. Georgia has indicated which side it is on. That is worth rewarding. It would be giving in to Russian bullying to believe that the cost of membership is a war.
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I know two things:
1) Georgians troops killed about 1600 citizens in South Osetia
2) After Russian troops came in South Osetia, killing of citizens was stopped.
So, who is right?
Who want know facts, that not written in west media, go http://www.russiatoday.com/en
Yuriy, Ufa,
NATO was created against SOVIET UNION. But Soviet Union doesnt exist, but NATO exists, why? I dont understand you? All right, youll kill all russians, but what then? West hates all Russia,why? Maybe we ain't Empire of Evil, maybe USA?
Azat, YAR CHALLY, TATARSTAN
International relations are not about fairness and morality. It's about national interest. Its American interest to be OK with Russia (sorry Georgia). Why open another front? The real threat today for the US comes from terror, and Russia is not part of it. Why corner Russia now? It's their backyard.
Rob, Key Biscayne, US
why still a hear about 2000 civilins "killed"??
did not you read the HRW report??
this was an action against rebels who constently fired on georgian vilegges in South Osetia...
Rezo, Tbilisi, Georgia
It's an interesting way to fight rebels: to destroy the whole city by GRAD's. Well done.
Artem, Moscow,
what you think about this anology:
France gaves to the ETA separatists weapon and pasports,and when Spain decide to disarm the rebbels after attacing civilians, France come to their aid by bombing Madrid and invaiding half of Spain!
Rezo, Tbilisi, Georgia
why still a hear about 2000 civilins "killed"??
did not you read the HRW report??
this was an action against rebels who constently fired on georgian vilegges in South Osetia...
Rezo, Tbilisi, Georgia
Bronwen Maddox writes "Saakashvili ... his armed forces ... make a dash for their prize." What did he think the Russians might do?
What, one wonders, would NATO have then done if Georgia was already in NATO? Come to Georgia's aid and wage WW3?
Dick, Durham, UK
1) Merkel was right
2) Bush has been wrong for 7 years
3) NATO is big enough
4) Germany France etc would not defend Georgia from Russia in event of attack so why let in?
5) Georgia isnt Europe
6) Russia isnt trying to invade us anymore, but they still have some stuff
7) The Georgians started it
Dan, Montreal, Canada
Germany and France want to live in peace with Russia, and consider Russia a partner.
They also do not have military bases in Georgia to control oil/gas pipeline.
Having Georgia and Ukraine in NATO seems to only suit interests of US.
Hamish, Brighton, UK
Dear Nick, it's amazing how brain wased americans are, did not you invade a contry, Iraq, under false pretexs..? did you find the weapons of mass distruction after all? wiil you care to tell me why Kosovo could be an independent state and , Abkhazia,Osetia, mountain Karabakh can not? Any difference?
Alex, Moscow, Russia
Dear Nick, I strongly recomend you open a history book. South Ossetia and Abkhazia people are not Georgians and have always (250 years) been Russia allies.
Octavio, Mexico, Mexico
Yeah, very smart idea...accept Georgia into NATO. Any dolt who supports that idea should be the first in line to volunteer themselves or their children for active military duty.
Russia is not the enemy. Anglo-American fascists who control NATO and start these wars for profit are the enemy.
Jarrold Hall, Los Angeles,
It's amazing how brain-washed the Russian people are still. You invaded a country on the pretext of protecting your citizens, who are Georgians that carry a Russian passport... are you serious? really? This is the 21st century, read a history book, you are not the USSR anymore.
Nick, Huntington, USA
Why nobody tells about almost 2000 citizens of Tshinvali (the capital of South Osetia) killed by Georgian militaries at night 7-8 August during their attack on Russian peacekeepers???
Georgian militaries attacked on sleeping civilians, destroyed 2/3 of houses in Tshinvali. Saakashvilli is agressor
Nelly, St.Petersburg, Russia
Merkel is really a surrender monkey. NATO should have accepted Georgia right after Saakashvili's ascent in 2004. Now look what this cowardice led to. Europe, act now and defend Georgia.
Clement, Warszawa,
Elena, Manchester, Britain
try to search for "American witness of war" in YouTube - this is an interview of American citizen, his wife is ossetian, and he lives in Tskhinvali
May be you will believe to him...
Andrey, Moscow,
David said: "When Serbia invaded Kosovo, NATO waged war on Serbia because it was the aggressor and targeted civilians."
Terrorists attacking civilians are not innocent "civilians" and it is perfectly justified to defend your people against their aggression. NATO's war was an illegal one.
Bob, Calgary,
We must help Georgia now because if we dont who will be next?
Bruno, rome,
This Times piece is almost completely devoid of fundamental logic and here is why:
When Serbia invaded Kosovo, NATO waged war on Serbia because it was the aggressor and targeted civilians. Now Georgia invaded South Ossetia and targeted civilians, but NATO should offer membership to Georgia?
David, Salt Lake City,
I agree. Let Georgia in straight away and start building more ABM sites in Czech Republic. If the Russians want to play hard then bring it on - I dont want war but I say no to compromise - "an appeaser is a man who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last".
Andy, York,
sue all arms manufacturers
Ivan, belfast,
I am sick of seeing Western mass media propaganda.I want to see what has happened in Tskhinvali, when Georgian troops attacked civilian. Why don't they send their journalists in Tskhinvali?. Saakashvilli, who are the provocator and he should be punished.
Elena, Manchester, Britain
I am still wondering how it is that the S.Ossations who are Georgian citizens have Russian passports. If we overlook this "small" technicality, we can make the case that the German army had a right to enter into Czechoslovakia in 1938. I hope to God this is not where we are going.
Peter, Warsaw, Poland
You comment "That would be wrong. It would tell Russia that it had an effective veto over who joined Nato" ANY expansion of NATO has been illegal since 1990, when a treaty was signed with the USSR to smooth the creation of the unified Germany, requiring that NATO never add another member.
Paul, Brisbane, Australia
Yes, as they say history repeats itself. Merkel's attitude to Russia echoes Chamberlain's to Germany. The fudge over Georgian NATO membership gave Russia an opportunity.
We should be sceptical of the idea that this was "started" by Georgia. They claim they were provoked in South Ossetia.
Tim, Cambridge, UK
SAAKASHVILI - IS THE MAIN PROBLEM! He is the trigger of coming possible world war.
Remember his aggresive actions against georgians civilians - his people - in November. Nobody did remember this now.
Alex, Brussels, Belgium
An excellent McCane's electioneering.
Roman, St.-Petersburg, Russia
Watching all this news frm west I decided to ask citizenship of RUSSIA.
Arturas Slavinskas, Riga, Latvia
How come Merkel won the argument? she wont even let German forces fight in Afghanistan. No contribution should mean no influence. Every week we see British soldiers blown to pieces by the Taliban whilst our brave German counterparts are safely tucked up in bed. pathetic
matt, Plymouth, UK
In my heart and in my wishes I am with the Georgian people. What have they done? Georgian villages in Ossetia were under attack for weeks and many people died. Georgia moved in and the Russian aggression started. Those russian cowards even now lie about their part in this game. A foul playing!
Konrad Winter, Freiburg, Germany
Europe and the USA need to show Russia that they are prepared to defend Georgia and if necessary use arms against Russia.
Michael Cawood, Wrexham, Wales, UK
Will Europe and the Americas be still as they were in the 1930's when Germany began invasions? Believing if we just kept our mouth shut and let the Germans have their way, things would get better, we cost millions of lives. Once feeling all powerful, will Russia halt, I doubt it.
Bob, oklahoma city, ok, usa
This article is hypocritical, NATO has never been pure of purpose and is now a blatant tool for US political interests, Georgian membership would bring a serious threat to Russia's door.
Saakashvili is the main villain in this conflict, his invasion of South Ossetia is a serious atrocity.
Cesca, Buckinghamshire, England
Everyone is tolking about russian propoganda, but forget the second side of this problem. Most information in western massmedia has only one point of view, same propoganda from another side.
People who tolking about Russia, and that it still Evil Empire mainly never been in Russia and nothing know.
Sergey, Moscow, Russia
The world nearly ended when the Soviet Union placed missiles in Cuba in 1962. US and NATO must stop encouraging rebellion and troubles in far away places where other super powers have critical strategic interests to avoid WWW 3.
Peter, Melbourne, Australia
British Petroleum don't care of Ossetian casualties - only gas and oil pipeline across Georgia - that's what they need.
Sergey, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
You have to know Georgian soldiers cant subdue Ossetian capital even after bombing. They have been killing injured people and throwing bombs to refuges where woman and children were. Having remained own killed they ran away when Russian army approximated. Its aim is to kill, not fight.
Rukhtin , Krasnodar, Russia
Times do not say about georgian fascism and genocide of ossetia and abhazia people, do not say about dozens thousands of civilians crossing Russia border seeking for life-saving. Do not say about killed peacekeepers by Saakashvili order. Democracy in its best action...
Pavel, Krasnodar, Russia
Yes Georgia should have been given the membership of NATO under certain conditions one of them of not invading S'Ossetia. Everything has to be done to keep the Russian bear under control who is still ruled by a former KGB man! Now the Russians have a good excuse to achieve their imperialist goals.
Andres, London,
1) Anyone can enter any town and any country. I could claim, for instance, that I'm from Ottawa, Canada (while I'm not)... This is really stupid and useless...
2) Dear Europeans, please be aware of existence of Russian propaganda. Russia still has Soviet anthem as its national anthem...
Sandro Tarkhan-Mouravi, Tbilisi, Georgia
What a truly stupid, dangerous idea.
NATO was set up to counterbalance the Soviet Bloc, not there so that all the major powers of the world could get sucked into a complicated ethnic/border issue on the very edge of Russia itself. That is how to start a world war- look at how WW1 began.
Tim Deegan, Yeovil, UK
look where people are fleing - that is how you'll find who is their enemy! georgians destroyed the university, all hospitals with woonded people, all communications; they set on fire churches whith people hiding there - NATO: who are your allies?..
Victor Perez, Brooklyn, NY, USA
Only 2 things we need to know:
1. Why has Georgia gone into S Ossetia now?
2. Did the US know/approve?
Everything else just blah blah blah.
Nick Brown, London, UK
yes gibe membership so NATO and the US can join the war and fight for the oil
tony trebilcoc, manchester, uk
Georgia needs so much our support now! Germany who was against Georgia in NATO must approve it now because it's important for the interests of the EU also. If this is not the case... the history of occupations after the WW2 might repeat...
Liva P., Paris, France
No mention of the K word. A perfect example, provided by NATO no less, of how you can bomb, occupy and then remove part of a soverign country against their will.
JL, London,
The expression Nato is using is '' neutralising the enemy ''
Andy, hamilton, uk
I wish US and European officials read the comments herein to be able to hear what their citizens think of the way they act globally.
Vlad, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
Very good analysis. It must be made clear to Putin-Russia that it can't bully its neighbors and destabilize democratically elected governments. If I were Nato, I'd start formal adherence talks of Georgia and Ucraine at once on coming Monday.
Suzanna, Moscow, Russia
Thanks God, this brainwashing carried out by western media fails to mask completely apparent things. Joe, Albert und Volker, your comments gives us hope that Europeans can make their own jundjemts and right conclusions regardless of the attemtps to dictate view point favoring Saakashvili
Stas, Reutov, Russia
USA - the defender of freedom. Russia - the greatest threat to world peace today.
Tim, London, UK
It appears that Saakashvili will end up in the same cell when Khodorkovskiy will be freed this autumn.
Remember, Russian prosecutors take evidence, and there will be a case to jail Saakashvili.
There are two personal enemies with Putin and they will be treated equally.
Farrukh, Moscow, Russia
I don't quite understand how the author came to the conclusion that Georgia shares the "same principles" with the West, while it is implied that Russia does not. Whoever is responsible for the barbaric attack of civilians with rocket launchers, should find himself before The Hague Tribunal.
Michael Mauksch, Würzburg, Germany
Montgomery's Three Rules of War:
1. Don't fight Russia
2. See Rule 1
3. See Rule 2.
NATO was created to constrain Soviet expansionism, not to support US adventurism. Let the Americans, and their Georgian alter-egos, do what they insist on doing - alone.
Noel Falconer, COUIZA, France
The west NATO and the free-world should do all it can to protect Georgia from Russian atrocities and stop acting as cowards, otherwise they lose all credibility in the rest of the world and their own people, say good bye to their moral standing and their world status by accepting defeat of an ally.
John, Atlanta, GA
The only reason the USA wants Georgia in Nato is to protect oil and gas pipelines, notably the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, supplying the West..
But bombing South Ossetia is a shot in the foot for Bush, Saakashvili, BP and US and oil and gas companies including Chevron and Conoco.
peter franzen, Wigan, England
NATO accepting Saakashvili? Why not Bin Laden? Is it because Saakashvili only killed 1500 Russian citizens overnight, as opposed to 3000 or so Americans?
Anatoly, Moscow,
By all accounts it was Georgia, that used heavy artillery to attack the biggest city at night. Wonder, if these are the common values within the NATO, the author is talking about.
Personally I am very glad, that Angela Merkel kept us of this conflict.
Volker Schmidt, Frankfurt, Germany
ha, yes, let them join NATO so the *US* will have to defend them. NATO is a joke, with a bunch of European welfare states using the US as saps.
joe, Eurabia, UK
It was Saakashvilli who started this war and the responsibility for all the civilian deaths rests with him. Agressive behavious of Saakashvilli is largedly due to NATO's encouragement. This means NATO is a destabilizing factor in the world.
Irina, Tbilisi, Georgia
"...in the drama of its move inside internationally-recognised Georgian sovereign borders"
How come that over Kosovo, NATO could move inside internationally-recognised Serbian sovereign borders, defying its own charter?
You want to have it both ways? Well, you can't as it always blows back.
albert.humbert, London,