Richard Beeston: Analysis
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Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister, could not have chosen his words better when he told his countrymen: “We have crossed the Rubicon.” He was speaking after the signing of an agreement with America to base ten US interceptor missiles on Polish soil, ostensibly to protect the West against rogue states such as Iran. To clinch the deal, the US also agreed to boost Poland’s defence with Patriot missiles and to conclude a mutual defence treaty “in case of trouble”.
Trouble came hours later in the form of a direct threat from General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the Russian deputy chief of staff, who warned the Poles that they should now regard themselves as potential nuclear targets. The Russians believe that the interceptors have nothing to do with Iran but are part of a Western defensive shield that could one day make the Kremlin’s huge stockpile of ballistic missiles obsolete.
Moscow has used apocalyptic language before, and no one is seriously suggesting that Warsaw or Crakow will become smoking ruins any time soon. But the Polish move, and the Russian threat, provide the clearest evidence yet that the six-day Georgian war has spread to Eastern Europe’s ancient fault-lines.
This new East-West contest is likely to intensify. Next week Nato foreign ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss how to respond to the conflict in Georgia. They are likely to reconfirm the decision adopted earlier this year at the Nato summit in Bucharest to open the door for Georgia and Ukraine’s eventual membership.
If the West was surprised by the ferocity of Russia’s action in Georgia, the struggle over Ukraine will be far more intense. Many Russians regard their western neighbour as part of their homeland, a view shared by many Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Moscow and Kiev are already locked in a bitter dispute about the future of the Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol. Nato membership would exacerbate the row. Any outbreak of violence could have huge repercussions.
Modern wars normally follow a familiar pattern. When the fighting is over, diplomats negotiate a ceasefire, troops retire, peacekeepers are inserted and negotiations begin to prevent renewed hostilities. Georgia’s war over a mountain enclave seems to ignore the trend. This conflict threatens to trigger a struggle that, if badly handled, could consume an entire continent.
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I don't believe Bush or Cheney have enough brains to come up with these schemes.
They are told by the terrorist state of Israel what to do.
Meanwhile the zionist looting of america continues unabated.
ron , mitchel,
Students of history may recall that the stationing of Soviet missiles on Cuba was in reaction to the US siting weapons in Turkey. Anyone remember what happened next?
Chris, Northwood, UK
Well Mac, what about all the Kurds in Iraq who were gassed by chemical weapons? Or, are all of those victims disillusioned too?
If OBL's not in Afghanistan, then where is he? Obviously not in a position to launch any more attacks, thanks to the allied forces WINNING the War on Terror!
Rush, New Castle, DE, USA
For all the Americans who want everyone else to do the math, you should back track a few years and remember your calculations regarding the last 8 years. eg Iraq = WMD's or Afghanistan = Osama Bin Laden. In both those cases you were WRONG. In short, you are all disillusioned and I feel sorry for you
Mac Piot, Sydney, AUS
OK, for those of you naysayers- once again, DO THE MATH. How does a squadron of TEN (single warhead) interceptors render a force of 600+ ICBMs ineffective??? Especially when these interceptors won't be targeted at the Russians, but at the emerging IRANIAN long range missile threat to Europe
Rush, New Castle, Delaware, USA
I'm sure how the Americans would react if the Russians installed TEN interceptor missiles in Mexico on the grounds of a NATO threat (just like the idiotic excuse on the bases in Poland and the Czech Republic against Iran). Just look how they changed everybodies lives after 9-11. Talk about paranoia
Gabriel, Mexico,
So if it is OK for america to put missiles in Poland then I guess it will be fine for Russia to put missiles in Cuba and america will be cool with that won't they?
Fred, Wellington,
Bush and Cheney had a hand in this debacle and thus leave office as the leading terrorists of the world.
Michael Harris, Toronto, Canada
This is insane. Why antagonize Russia when they are paranoid in the first place. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has seen a total break up of what it once was. Now we slap them in the face again in Poland. Poland deserves Independence and security but there are better ways to do it.
Bruce, Eureka, California, U.S.A.
Ah, the historically famous Russian paranoia raises its ugly head again.
Do they REALLY believe that a squadron of TEN interceptor missiles will render their ENTIRE FORCE of ICBMs obsolete?
It's time for Putin and the rest of his criminals to put down the vodka, sober up, and do the math.
Rush, New Castle, DE, USA
As an E-EU myself who lived under Russian occupation, I STILL think that this Polish treaty was a wrong idea with very wrong timing. The shield won't help against Russia but will rightly infuriate her. And the USA won't help, should there be a trouble. Only promises. We Hungarinas know it from 1956.
Robert, Budapest, Hungary
Most likely, this antimissile deployment impacts a Soviet Limited Strike war plan.
A Limited Strike gambit, whether defensive, in response to a limited attack or offensive, in the hope of a failure of will on the part of an adversary, is made much more complicated by an effective missile defense.
L. S. Colby, Venice, CA, USA
The Russians believe that the interceptors have nothing to do with Iran, because it is complete nonsense.
That notion is propagated by the same forces that brought us the Iraq disaster, the usual Zionist lobbies who want more pre-emptive war for specious reasons.
tarquinis, Seattle, USA
Farrukh, oh please, the whole planet knows the West spent the USSR into bankruptcy. And newsflash, Russia didn't have then, nor do they have today or ever will have a say about any country's future. Russians, watch as the West plunges your nation into bankruptcy once again.
Fred, Pittsburgh, USA, PA
This is leading in the direction of one side having to back down and lose face, or all out war. The US and Poland will apparently agree to a mutual defense pact and the installation of interceptor missiles. Russia says it will destroy the interceptor missiles. Is there some way out of this?
Paul Wolf, Washington DC, US
Keith, they were to become 500 anyway that's why Russian government was against antimissiles. And don't forget, reforms began in Russia in 1985, and in Eastern Europe only later with the permission of Gorbachov. And we allowed the unificication of Germany because we were promised status quo.
Farrukh, Moscow, Russia
Clearly Russia is bored with the triviality of normal existance and wants to return to a perpetual struggle because that defined who they were. Sad, because they have no ideology behind this other than money and secondly because they are being eclipsed by the Chinese in the east.
martin, bath, uk
russia's actions merely confirm what the ex-soviet states knew all along - there soil is still coveted by russia. better cozy up to the americans real quick. 'old europe' certainly won't save you
tim, NSW, AUS
10 antimissiles might stop an attack by a small rouge state, but it wouldn't do much to stop an attack by one of the 3 major rouge states.
If Russia maintains its present course, those 10 missiles will need to become 500.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada