Few places in the world must have watched the Russian military adventures in Georgia closer than the Ukrainian port city of Sevastopol.

The city on the Crimean Peninsula has been used jointly by the Russian and Ukrainian navies since Moscow lost the home of its Black Sea Fleet in the break-up of its Soviet empire.

Kiev and Moscow have shared the port uneasily ever since, with Russia's shaky grip based on a 20-year lease that is due to expire in 2017.

The prospect of the home of its Black Sea Fleet becoming incorporated into Ukraine is unthinkable. As long as Ukraine has sovereignty over Sevastopol Russian use of its Navy could be circumscribed.

The decision by Russia to send warships from Sevastopol to the Georgian coast brought sharp recriminations from the Ukrainians who warned Moscow that it was in breach of neutrality and putting it in danger of being drawn into the conflict.

With Nato hawks eager to admit Ukraine to the Western alliance how far may Russia go to stop Sevastopol coming under the Nato umbrella? Many fear it could become the next flashpoint between Russia and the West, not least because Stalin's redrawing of borders left the ethnically Russian city under Ukrainian sovereignty.

Ukraine carries special resonance as the heartland of ancient Kievan Rus, the birthplace of Russian culture and identity. Most Russians cannot conceive of Ukraine as a state in opposition to their country as a member of Nato.

Even most Nato officials agree that realpolitik dictates that Russia's rights to Black Sea access must be respected, raising the prospect that Ukraine might have to leave the peninsula in Russian hands before it can ever be considered for joining Nato.

Times Recommends

• Both sides blame US for worsening relations
• Stieg Larsson: losing the plot over his cash
• Odd creature paralysed by incompatible parts