Charles Bremner, Paris Correspondent for The Times, explains the complex issues surrounding France and its attitude towards the European constitution

"With 10 days of campaigning left before the referendum on May 29, the Yes campaign has moved into overdrive with television advertisements and radio and press interviews in an attempt to explain what the constitution means.

"Even the leaders of Germany and Poland have been wheeled out today to plead with French voters to say Yes. The hope is that people will be more likely to vote in favour of the document if they understand its implications.

"The 'No' side is back in the lead in the opinion polls, although about 30 per cent of voters are undecided. There is a feeling in President Jacques Chirac’s Government that the referendum can still be won, but it is not very confident of doing so. After all, the last such referendum, on the Maastricht treaty in 1992, was won by less than 1 per cent.

"Tony Blair is praying that the French deliver a No vote to get him out of a sticky situation. If his wish is granted, it would probably mean a similar referendum would not end up being held in Britain.

"A No vote from France would not mean the end of the European Union as we know it. It would not come to a standstill and would continue to operate under the terms of the Nice Treaty, which M Chirac ineptly negotiated.

"It gave more voting power to the smaller states at the expense of France and other bigger, older members of the Union. The Constitution would restore some of that power to France, as well as Germany and the UK.

"Rejection of the Constitution by voters in the Netherlands would create problems, but they would not be insurmountable. It is possible that the vote would be restaged there in the future, as did Ireland when its voters initially rejected the Treaty of Nice and when the Danes voted against the Maastricht Treaty.

"Re-running the vote is beyond the realm of possibility in France because of its central role in the Union and in drawing up the document. France ditching the Constitution would kill it.

"Yes votes by both countries would put the spotlight very firmly on Britain and raise the stakes dramatically in a referendum on the issue. A No vote also seems possible in the Czech Republic, which does not appear to be terribly impressed with the document.

"M Chirac has no-one to blame but himself for the position he now finds himself in. He was under pressure from his own party to do so, but also hoped a referendum would divide the opposition.

"That has happened, but winning a Yes vote has not been the foregone conclusion he expected. It doesn’t help that his Government is very unpopular and many voters want to blow him a raspberry and see this as a good opportunity to do just that.

"But it remains that a no vote would be a huge embarrassment to Gallic pride and would be a serious blow to France’s role at the heart of Europe."

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