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Opinion polls have shown that the Dutch, who have traditionally been proud Europeans, are even more strongly opposed to the constitution than the French, with opponents having a 14-point lead over supporters.
A “nee” vote by the Netherlands would mark the second rejection of the constitution by a founding country of the EU, and would almost certainly kill off any lingering hopes of keeping the treaty alive.
The Dutch Government had been hoping that a French “oui” vote would persuade Dutch voters to support the constitution for fear of being isolated in Europe.
European leaders had tried to orchestrate the referendums in different countries to secure a “rolling yes” across the Continent, but a rejection by the Dutch would represent the scenario they had desperately tried to avoid: a “rolling no”.
Analysts have predicted that turnout in the Dutch referendum on Wednesday is likely to be much lower after France’s rejection of the treaty. Mr Balkenende said last night: “There is all the more reason to say ‘yes’ so that some progress can be recorded with the constitutional treaty. Each country has its own responsibility. That means that Dutch voters have to weigh it up for themselves.”
Other EU leaders were pessimistic about the chances for a yes vote. Günter Verheugen, the European Commission Vice-President, said: “I am not especially hopeful. France has not sent an encouraging signal to the Netherlands.”
Although all mainstream political parties in the Netherlands support the constitution, the Dutch have been turning Eurosceptic in recent years.
There is disillusion with the euro, which the Dutch blame for pushing up prices, and there are regular calls to bring back the guilder. The generally free-market Dutch are frustrated at the increasing levels of regulation and bureaucracy coming from Brussels. There is also anger that the Dutch pay more into the EU per person than any other country.
However, opinion polls show that the main reason people plan to vote against the constitution is that they are opposed to Turkey joining the EU.
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