"The politicians can't say that the constitution is dead because the Dutch still have to vote and there is the Euro summit to be held in June. They have to go through the formalities, but unquestionably, it is dead. There is no possibility of the treaty coming into force.

"This was a decisive vote and you can bet that the legislation on the treaty introduced into Parliament last week to prepare for the referendum will not proceed at all. They can't undermine the Dutch referendum by saying anything at this stage, but that is what's going to happen.

"What I found interesting today was that Tony Blair and Jack Straw both agreed that their concern is not merely the fact that the French voted no but also the reasons why they voted no. It was a complete mesh of reasons.

"Some of these followed the opposition of some in France to surrender sovereignty but there were also serious objections to the proposals for economic reform.

"This will place a strict limit on what Mr Blair can achieve when Britain assumes presidency of the European Union in July.

"He can have an influence on the future of Europe but he is only one voice, to suggest that he will have the power to drive forward the EU would be to severely exaggerate the power of his role.

"There is also the continuing thorny issue of Britain's budget negotiations within the EU. The Prime Minister is under almost universal pressure for Britain to hand back the annual rebate but that is being very strongly resisted.

"In some ways, the vote does give Mr Blair some temporary relief in that he hasn't got to hold a referendum, which would have been difficult and potentially damaging.

"It's now very difficult to see what could be done to produce a new and acceptable treaty. The French vote was so decisive and the reasons behind it so varied that it will not just be a question of tweaking the margins to find a compromise as was possible with the Maastricht treaty in 1992.

"We are talking about completely new arrangements. Could one compose a mini-treaty? Even then there would be arguments about whether a slimmed-down constitution would have to go out to referenda or whether it could be approved by the individual parliaments.

"The forthcoming elections in Germany this September, next year in Italy, in France in 2007mean that we are likely to remain in limbo for some time as no-one will be in a particular hurry to draft a new constitution.

"The EU will carry on, not very efficiently, but it can carry on."

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