THE process of European Union enlargement, which has lifted membership from ten countries to twenty-five in two decades, has been thrown into jeopardy by the referendums in France and the Netherlands and the autumn elections in Germany.

About a dozen countries are eager to join the Union, including Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, but EU leaders may find it impossible to ignore the growing anger of voters at the continuing expansion. Pro-enlargement governments, such as Britain, have started lobbying to ensure that the plans are not derailed.

In France and the Netherlands opposition to the EU largely revolves around enlargement, while in Germany Angela Merkel, the opposition leader, who is favourite to win the election, has promised to resist Turkey’s membership.

In France voters were angry about the perceived threat from “the Polish plumber”, with widespread fears that jobs were being lost to competition from the eight poorer Eastern European countries that joined the EU last year.

The Netherlands, France and Germany are against Turkey, a large, poor Muslim nation almost entirely in Asia, becoming the biggest member of the EU.

Tony Blair champions Turkey’s membership, and entry talks are scheduled to start in London on October 3. Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in 2007 but fear that obstacles may be put in their way. Balkan countries such as Croatia, Macedonia and Albania are on their way to being admitted, and former Soviet countries such as Ukraine and Georgia have also asked to join.

Marco Incerti, of the Centre for European Policy Studies, said: “One of the main reasons for the ‘no’ vote is that France has not come to terms with the last enlargement. French leaders will have to say, ‘We are listening to you — no more enlargements for now’. The perspectives for Turkey are now looking very bad.”

Frau Merkel has said that she will try to block Turkey’s membership in favour of a “privileged partnership”. She said: “This alienation between Europe and its public must be overcome and we need an honest debate about Turkish membership.” A spokesman for her party, the Christian Democrats, said: “Our position is clear — inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania must be put off. ”

Yesterday a European Commission spokesman said that there was no connection between the referendum results and enlargement, and Günter Verheugen, the German Commissioner who negotiated Turkey’s entry talks, told Frau Merkel that it was too late for her to change anything. A British official said: “The political decision has already been taken.”

An EU official pointed out: “Technically they have to give a reason for blocking negotiations, although politically they can do what they want. But it will be a full-scale row, all guns blazing.”

Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, telephoned Abdullah Gul, the Turkish Foreign Minister, to assure him that the entry talks would still go ahead. Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, also gave warning that the EU’s rejection of Turkey would be “a terrible thing”.

However, Emin Sirin, an opposition MP, said: “The French result shows that European public opinion is not ready to welcome Turkey as a partner.”

Marek Belka, the Polish Prime Minister, who has been pushing for Ukraine to join the EU, acknowledged that the referendum made future expansion less likely. “That is so obvious you do not need diplomatic language to say so,” he said.

Countries hoping to join the EU attempted to play down the fears. Solomon Passi, the Bulgarian Foreign Minister, said: “European integration is a strategic long-term process, which must not be disrupted by a referendum.”

THE WAITING LIST

Bulgaria and Romania: on course to join on January 1, 2007

Turkey: accession talks begin on October 3

Croatia: aimed to join in 2007 but talks delayed by suspected failure to co-operate with The Hague war crimes tribunal

Serbia-Montenegro: EU has proposed opening talks “as soon as possible”

FYR Macedonia: made official membership application in 2004

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