THE Dutch “nee” has all but killed off hopes of keeping the constitution alive, but Tony Blair will avoid any immediate pronouncements on its future to avoid being blamed for its demise.

The treaty’s supporters must now not only find a way to reverse the votes in two EU founding countries, but dissuade other member states from abandoning the ratification process and counter a domino effect of “no” votes in those states that do proceed with referendums. The Poles and Czechs both showed signs of wobbling on their referendum plans yesterday, while polls show support for the constitution plummeting even in Luxembourg, a founding member of the EU, which is to hold the next referendum in July.

Polls in the Grand Duchy show the “yes” camp’s lead shrinking from 36 to 14 per cent in the last month. Luxembourg is seen as the most instinctively pro-European country in the Union.

Mr Blair, on holiday in Tus-cany, made no comment after the Dutch result. British officials are worried that he will be blamed for killing off the treaty before other European leaders have had a chance to discuss the treaty’s future at their summit on June 16. “There are a lot of people who want to finger us. We don’t want to give them any ammunition,” one diplomat said yesterday.

However, allies of Mr Blair, including the former EU commissioner Lord Kinnock of Bedwellty, have said that to continue ratification would be “disastrous” for the EU, and that it is futile for the UK or other countries to hold referendums. Downing Street is hoping other countries will reach the same conclusion.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister whose country holds the presidency of the EU, has been holding a series of urgent meetings with EU leaders to try to find a way to keep the constitution alive.

He and José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President, have repeatedly insisted that all countries must continue to try to ratify the treaty. They say that no country should be able to veto it and that a way forward can be found only after all have had their say. They know that if the ratification process is called off, then the treaty is dead.

Before yesterday the six countries — Poland, Portugal, Ireland, Luxembourg, Denmark and the Czech Republic — that are planning a referendum had all said they would continue. However, Jiri Paroubek, the Czech Prime Minister, said he would seek more time for the ratification process, while President Kwasniewski of Poland said it would decide how and when to ratify the constitution after the summit.

Marco Incerti, of the Centre for European Policy Studies, which is funded by the Commission, said of the Dutch referendum: “This vote will strengthen the hand of those who are calling for an end to the ratification process. The treaty may not be dead, but it is on its deathbed and has gone deeper into a coma.”

The constitution’s supporters can now only get the treaty ratified by bypassing both the Dutch and the French referendums, risking a backlash from European citizens angry that their opinions are being treated with contempt by their rulers.

The Dutch “nee” also makes it far more difficult for supporters of the constitution to claim that the French “non” was just a protest against President Chirac. The Dutch vote has been dominated by European issues, ranging from the budget and bureaucracy to the euro and Turkey’s impending membership, which is highly unpopular. “It shows there is a lot of opposition from different quarters, and that it is not just the French being difficult,” Signor Incerti said.

The French vote was not only a devastating blow for President Chirac, but has cast huge doubt on the entire direction of the EU. Mr Blair called for a debate on the future course of the Union, and how it will meet up to the challenges of a globalised world. In contrast, M Chirac said he wanted a more “social” Europe, more of the French model and rejected “Anglo-Saxon” economics. The split between Mr Blair and M Chirac — between freemarket economics and high social protection – is increasingly being seen in Brussels as a battle for the soul of the EU.

WHAT'S NEXT

June 6 Jack Straw is expected to announce whether or not Britain will hold a referendum

June 9 Geoff Hoon, the Leader of the House, could announce that a referendum Bill will be shelved

June 13-14 EU foreign ministers meet

June16-17 EU leaders hold their regular summit. Jacques Chirac suggested in a letter to leaders that deliberations on what to do next should begin at this summit

July 1 Britain takes over the rotating EU presidency

July 10 Luxembourg holds its referendum on the constitution

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