WHEN Brussels is plunged into a crisis, diplomats normally joke that it “is the worst crisis since the last one”.

No one is joking now. The splits between European leaders are so deep that the only thing many agree on is just how serious it is.

After firmly blaming it all on Tony Blair’s intransigence, Gerhard Schröder, the German Chancellor, declared: “We are in one of the worst political crises Europe has ever seen.” Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, agreed.

Catherine Colonna, France’s new Minister for Europe, raised the stakes yesterday by hinting that the row over the future of the EU could lead to it breaking up. Mr Blair faces the unenviable task of trying to forge a consensus when he takes over the EU presidency in less than a fortnight. Few diplomats expect him to succeed in reaching a deal on the budget during his six-month presidency, not least because his critics do not want to give him the pleasure.

However, he will work hard to use his presidency to bring European leaders around to his way of thinking on the need for reform to make the Union “fit for purpose” in the 21st century.

Although the “old Europe” core of France, Germany and Luxembourg have portrayed Mr Blair as isolated, the reality is far more complex. Mr Blair and his modernising ideas have many admirers across Europe, although not many are public about it. In contrast, although Jacques Chirac sees himself as the real leader of the EU, he is widely despised among other governments.

A minister from one government very sympathetic to Britain told The Times: “Chirac is a disaster who is bringing Europe down with him and will probably cause real problems in the next couple of years, because that is what he is like. He will do all he can to block any reforms.”

At the summit only four other countries publicly sided with Britain and opposed the budget — the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and Spain — although for different reasons: the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland want less EU spending, while Spain was demanding more money be spent on itself.

The debate has traditionally been led by the “old Europe” countries pushing for more social protection in an “ever- closer union”. But British ministers believe that the time is ripe for their arguments. “I have learnt in the EU that there are public positions and private positions, and they are not always the same,” said one British minister. “The task is to make those private positions public.”

Most Eastern European countries are likely to be major recipients of EU agricultural subsidies, but the scale of farming subsidies is so extravagant that it may be possible to get them to agree to swap them for more useful help. They are also sympathetic to Mr Blair’s call to limit the powers of the EU and to promote free-market reforms.

Mr Blair’s strongest card is that economically thriving Britain is seen as an attractive model to follow, while the Franco-German model, which has produced record unemployment, is losing support even in France and Germany.

He will probably not be able to get agreement on reforms while M Chirac and Herr Schröder remain in power. Downing Street is calculating that they will not be there for long.

Times Recommends

• Mandela’s tribe threatens President Zuma
• The French empire strikes back
• Wife of cheating governor exacts a political revenge