Another new year and another arm-wrestle between Moscow and Kiev over gas supplies. Utility bosses in Europe and Ukraine learnt lessons in January 2006 when Gazprom first turned off the tap, causing panic as pipeline pressure dropped in Europe. This time storage tanks are full, but we should not dismiss the confrontation as yet another example of Kremlin insecurity.

There may be Kremlin delight in a Ukrainian squirm, but this row is not a repeat of Georgia. It is not about thumping neighbours. It is about what Gazprom says it is about. It is about money. It is about Gazprom’s fear that the enormous dollar haul of recent years that has supported its commercial ambitions and the Russian state budget is about to shrink. More importantly, it is about Gazprom’s ability to raise enough cash to find enough gas – and that is why this row matters.

Last year was a golden harvest. Thanks to the surge in gas prices, Gazprom’s profits tripled to $10 billion (£7 billion) in the three months to the end of June.

The good times are over for Gazprom, however, and its bosses know it. Aleksandr Medvedev, the deputy chief executive of Gazprom, said that he expected the European gas price to fall from $500 per 1,000 cubic metres to between $260 and $300 this year. The price could go lower still and that is good news for consumers, including Britain which is importing more gas from the Continent, but it is very bad for Gazprom. It has about 1.12 trillion roubles (£26 billion) in borrowings and it must repay more than a quarter of that by June. The company gave a warning that the credit crunch could affect its ability to borrow.

The financial discomfort of Gazprom explains its aggressive lobbying in Brussels for support for debt collection in Ukraine. The EU listens because, whether we like it or not, our energy security is dependent on the Russians’ ability to finance expensive gas exploration in the Arctic.

In an attempt to bypass Ukraine, Gazprom is investing billions of dollars in a pipeline beneath the Baltic, money that would be better spent in finding more gas.

According to the International Energy Agency, Gazprom will need to find reserves that can deliver an extra 300 billion cubic metres of gas annually by 2020.

The financial troubles of Gazprom may become our troubles too.

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