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Only 56 people have died as a direct result of radiation released in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, and the final death toll could be thousands fewer than originally feared, the UN nuclear watchdog said today.
However, anxiety caused by fear of death and illness from radiation poisoning is causing major mental health problems among the affected population and such worries "show no signs of diminishing and may even be spreading," the agency said, citing a new report compiled by 100 scientists.
The final death toll attributed to radiation could reach 4,000, said the report, compiled on behalf of the Chernobyl Forum. The Chernobyl Forum includes the International Atomic Energy Agency, based in Vienna, as well as seven other UN agencies and the governments of Ukraine, where Chernobyl is located, neighbouring Belarus and Russia.
Ukraine has previously said it had already registered 4,400 deaths related to the accident, and early speculation following the radiation release predicted tens of thousands would die.
But Dr Burton Bennett, the chairman of the forum, said that previous death tolls had been inflated, perhaps "to attract attention to the accident, to attract sympathy".
The report and a two-day scientific meeting to discuss it, which starts tomorrow, aim to "reach a consensus on the various issues so that we can go forward in a more positive way," Dr Bennett told a news conference.
Environmental organization Greenpeace condemned the report and accused the forum of "whitewashing" the impacts of the accident.
"Denying the real implications is not only insulting the thousands of victims, who are told to be sick because of stress and irrational fear, but it also leads to dangerous recommendations, to relocate people in contaminated areas," said Jan Vande Putte, Greenpeace International nuclear campaigner.
The 600-page UN report says a lack of accurate information about the accident’s consequences has made the mental health impact "the largest public health problem created by the accident."
"These problems manifest as negative self-assessments of health, belief in a shortened life expectancy, lack of initiative and dependency on assistance from the state," the agency said in a statement.
"Persistent myths and misperceptions about the threat of radiation have resulted in ’paralyzing fatalism’ among residents of affected areas."
Teachers and others with influence must receive better information so they can counter false fears by replacing mythology with facts, said Kalman Mizsei of the UN Development Programme.
"The health and environmental effects ... have been relatively and surprisingly minor," Mr Mizsei said. Residents in the region had received no understandable information about the accident’s effects, and "people still don’t know what the effect is".
Mr Mizsei advocated that support programmes to Chernobyl victims should be altered to concentrate only on the groups affected by high levels of radiation. As of now, 5 million to 7 million people receive benefits and support, while only 200,000 people were exposed to higher levels of radiation.
Belarus in 1991 spent 22 percent of its national budget on Chernobyl-related expenses, but the figure has since fallen to 6 percent, according to UNDP statistics. Ukraine spends 5 percent to 7 percent of its budget on costs related to the accident.
"Pushing millions of people into this dependency is not helpful," Mr Mizsei said. By moving away from the illusion that the accident still had a ruinous effect, people could begin improving their lives.
The report also says there is no evidence of decreased fertility following the accident, nor of any increase in congenital malformations.
The survival rate of the about 4,000 cases of thyroid cancer caused by the accident has been almost 99 percent, the report said. Nine of the 56 deaths recorded so far were children who succumbed to thyroid cancer.
Thyroid cancer patients and thousands of workers exposed to high levels of radiation in the days following the accident suffered "major health consequences", Dr Bennett said. "The majority of workers and population received fairly low doses."
Lung cancer caused by smoking was expected to kill three times as many as Chernobyl-related cancers, he added. Among other findings was that poverty, "lifestyle diseases" such as illnesses caused by smoking, drinking and stress "pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation exposure," the statement said.
Dr Fred Mettler, one of the scientists behind the report, said that the report offered lessons for any future cases - including any potential radiation release by terrorists - by emphasising issues such as the need for early and accurate information. "It’s a timely document for learning lessons to apply to other areas," he said.
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