POLAND is poised to swing to the Right this weekend in a general election that could inject a more hard-nosed tone in Warsaw’s dealings with the European Union and Russia.

Two new centre-Right parties lead the field, the liberal conservatives of the Civic Platform and the national conservatives of the Law and Justice party. Latest polls show the Civic Platform at 32 per cent and their rivals at 30 per cent. They have promised to form a coalition, with the biggest party supplying the Prime Minister. The man tipped for the job is Jan Maria Rokita, of the Civic Platform.

There could be an upset. If the Law and Justice party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski edges ahead tomorrow, he could take the country much further right by making common cause with the Self Defence party (Eurosceptics, currently at 12 per cent) and the ultra-nationalist League of Polish Families (8 per cent). Mr Kaczynski is famed for his brinkmanship and no one excludes the possibility that he will try to shift alliances.

Even if a grand coalition emerges, there are more difficult times ahead for Europe: Mr Kaczynski is critical of Germany and has denounced what he believes to be an over-friendly policy towards Moscow. The new Government will be more outspoken in its support of the opposition in Belarus and more critical of President Putin.

The choice facing Poles thus seems to be between the centre-Right and the strident Right. Any left-wing option has withered away. In 2001, the Democratic Left Alliance — the former communists — captured 41 per cent of the vote as Poles voted against a corrupt conservative Government.

Now the pendulum has swung and the ex-communists are set to be swept away in turn after they were caught out in complex corruption dealings. This week they were scoring barely 8 per cent of the vote.

An intriguing possibility will be opened up if the Law and Justice makes the running tomorrow. Mr Kaczynski will become Prime Minister while his twin brother, Lech, is running in elections in a fortnight’s time to be President.

If the Kaczynskis are in luck it will be almost impossible to tell the President from the Prime Minister.

Lech Kaczynski, trailing the liberal conservative Donald Tusk in the polls, not only looks the same as his brother: their career and politics are almost identical. All that distinguishes them is that Lech is married and Jaroslaw is single, living with their mother and her cats. The voters may yet separate the twins, putting one into power and keeping the other one out.

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