GAZ DE FRANCE is turning in so many directions that its head is in danger of becoming detached from its body.

The French utility is spinning on its axis because it wants to merge with Suez, the Franco-Belgian gas and power company. Many French people don’t like the idea — the tie-up would dilute the state shareholding in GdF to a minority position. The unions are vehemently opposed to a privatisation; the European Commission has demanded concessions and rival European utilities are jealously sniping at the would-be gas juggernaut.

The rationale for GdF-Suez is to be the biggest gas buyer in Europe, the leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a big player in gas-fired power generation. So many superlatives ought to be enough to sell a deal, but this deal has to be sold several times and GdF has been forced to sing different songs to entertain different audiences.

Dominique de Villepin, the Prime Minister, tells the French parliament that GdF-Suez would be a gas champion, big enough to stand up to Gazprom.

A big brother to frighten the bully; the analogy goes down less well in Moscow. Gaz de France needs more gas; even now it is negotiating a new long-term supply contract with Gazprom. The French utility has failed so far to win itself the cosy relationship with the Kremlin enjoyed by E.ON and BASF, of Germany. These have agreed asset swaps — access to Siberian gas in return for access to the German market.

For Suez investors, the talk of national champions is all hooey: what matters in this deal is LNG and the emerging Atlantic market for frozen fuel from Africa and the Middle East. GdF has a big appetite for LNG, and terminals in Marseilles and Brittany. Suez controls the Zeebrugge LNG terminal and the Everett one in Boston, Massachusetts. Suez plans a further two in America while, in the UK, GdF has a stake in the second phase of National Grid’s Isle of Grain LNG terminal. If you are a Suez investor, the prospect of a stake in a giant LNG trading machine, moving cargoes from North Africa to Europe and on to America, is quite exciting.

It’s not what French politicians like to hear; they want to know that the prime purpose of GdF-Suez is not chasing margin but the protection of French gas consumers. There are mutterings on the Left that Suez traders will end up diverting “French” gas to America, if the price is right. A merger that started in January as a defence against an Italian bid (Enel was plotting the takeover of Suez) will by December become a captive of the US gas market.

It’s a different story in Brussels, where Neelie Kroes, the Competition Commissioner, needs to be kept sweet. No mention of national champions but of an ambitious price-cutting interloper. GdF-Suez will become a powerful rival to Électricité de France in the French power market. The Commission cares more about Belgium and last week Suez conceded it must sell its entire interest in Distrigaz, the local utility, while GdF would divest its quarter-share of SPE, a power company.

But what of the Suez shareholder? On Monday the GdF and Suez chiefs were admitting that the terms of the original share swap were not set in stone. They said nothing of the strategy: what sort of beast will this gas colossus become? Will it be a free-wheeling capitalistic gas trader or a hoarder of gas for grumpy Gauls?

The answer depends on who you are and where you live.

Cod lacks furry protection

UGLY, unloved but chased to the ends of the Earth, the cod is a wild animal unprotected because of its lack of fur. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has run its slide rule over one of the world’s biggest fisheries and failed to find many fish.

There are a few bits of good news in the ICES report — stocks of Norwegian herring and hake are responding to better management — but the key message is that the cod is still in grave danger. As a desperate measure to prevent extinction, ICES recommends a ban on fishing of cod, sole and plaice in the North Sea next year. The advice is unlikely to be heeded. Last year ICES recommended a zero cod catch, but the European Commission, fearful of the wrath of the Council of Ministers, opted for a catch of 26,500 tonnes.

Not long ago the Commision doled out subsidies to Galician shipyards to build fishing trawlers, so it is perhaps too much to expect them to tell the boats to stay in port. In Scotland the SNP is protesting that fishing in British waters is being threatened by EU “diktat”.

If only it were true.

carl.mortished@thetimes.co.uk

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