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The march through Red Square by thousands of troops ahead of tanks and nuclear missile launchers sent an unambiguous message of Russian military might.
Yesterday's show of strength in central Moscow was a dress rehearsal for tomorrow’s Victory Day parade, the second since Vladimir Putin revived the Soviet-era tribute to Red Army veterans who fought Nazi Germany. The Kremlin’s signal to younger Russians is that their country is back after the humiliation of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The symbolism is all the more powerful this year after the war with Georgia over South Ossetia in August last year, Russia’s first military campaign since the end of communism in 1991. But the flag-waving masks a weaker reality.
Analysts say that the war in Georgia exposed the shortcomings of Russia’s army. President Dmitri Medvedev ordered sweeping reforms within weeks of the conflict, telling army chiefs to spare no expense in improving the combat readiness of troops.
Anatoly Serdyukov, the Defence Minister, acknowledged recently that 90 per cent of Russia’s weaponry was obselete. Mr Medvedev has authorised large-scale rearmament from 2011, regardless of the economic crisis gripping Russia, with mass production of new warships and submarines as well as modernisation of the country’s nuclear arsenal.
New equipment is the easy part compared to manpower. Russia’s military of almost 1.2 million is a shadow of the 4.5 million who served in the Soviet armed forces, and it remains heavily dependent on conscripts with little education, training or motivation.
Efforts to recruit better quality soldiers with short-term contracts offering higher salaries have had limited success. A culture of bullying in the ranks remains a strong deterrent. The Defence Ministry acknowledged that 24 of the 471 servicemen killed in non-combat incidents last year died as a result of bullying, but there were also 231 suicides and 26 murders.
“We don’t have a professional recruiting system, so they are enlisting anyone they can find. We even have tens of thousands of women on contracts who are enlisted simply to bring a second salary into their families,” Pavel Felgengauer, Russia’s leading defence analyst, told The Times.
“They don’t drink so much vodka and may be more disciplined and reliable than the men, but they are not real contract soldiers. They are mothers with children.”
The army is also top-heavy. Mr Serdyukov, a former accountant with no military background, plans to sack 200,000 officers, half the total, as he shrinks the armed forces to 1 million servicemen by 2012.
Finding suitable candidates for redundancy is not proving difficult. Nikolai Pankov, the Deputy Defence Minister, disclosed last week that 20 per cent of senior officers, including 50 generals, had failed aptitude tests and would be dismissed.
General Nikolai Makarov, chief of the Russian General Staff, complained after the conflict in Georgia that only 17 per cent of Russia’s army was combat-ready and that most of its Soviet-trained officers were incapable of fighting a war.
“To find a lieutenant-colonel, colonel or general able to lead troops with a sure hand, you had to chase down officers one by one throughout the armed forces,” he said.
Russia’s air force will cut a third of officers and the navy is halving the number of its operational units to 123 by 2016. The Pacific Fleet, Russia’s second largest, is shedding 5,000 officers.
Few doubt that Russia must get a bigger bang for its rouble if it is to remain a major military player. Nikita Petrov, a security analyst, noted recently that its $40 billion (£27 billion) defence budget is a fraction of the $600 billion the Pentagon spends.
President Medvedev will talk up Russia’s military prowess when he takes the salute on Red Square, but he knows that much of the power on parade is illusory beyond the nuclear deterrent. Western observers were quick to note that the 58th Army lacked reconnaissance drones, high-precision bombs and even secure communications in Georgia, and defeated its tiny adversary largely through superiority of numbers.
“The aim of this modernisation is to westernise the Russian army,” Mr Felgengauer noted. “Things are so bad that something has to be done because the old Soviet military system is just crumbling.”
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