Turkey was told yesterday to open its ports and airports to Cypriot traffic within the next month or face the suspension of talks to join the European Union.

The ultimatum from the European Commission — the first delivered to a potential EU country — solicited a promise to speed up domestic reforms, but the Turkish Prime Minister insisted that the Cyprus issue could be solved only by Greece and Greek Cypriots. “Don’t expect us to open our ports and airports until the isolation of the Turkish Cypriot state is lifted,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

Suspension of accession talks would damage relations between Turkey and the EU. Opposition to Turkish membership in Germany and France would make restarting the process difficult if stalled.

It could also fuel hostility towards the EU within Turkey, where the polls show a strong majority of Turks believing that their country is being treated unfairly by Brussels.

The Commission report on the progress Ankara is making to prepare for membership said that Turkey is discriminating against an EU member state, Cyprus, by refusing to recognise it and failing to remove obstacles to the free movement of goods and transport.

José Manuel Barroso, the Commission President, called on Turkey to focus on breaking the deadlock “in the coming weeks”. If it failed to do so, he said the Commission would present recommendations to EU leaders before they meet in Brussels for their summit in the middle of next month.

Finland, the current EU president, will use the next four weeks to try to broker a deal. But after the collapse of attempts to organise a meeting with Turkish negotiators last weekend, the prospects of a breakthrough are slim.

Neither Mr Barroso, nor Olli Rehn, the Enlargement Commissioner, who presented the report, would spell out what the recommendations might be. But with pressure growing for a tougher response to Ankara, especially from France, Cyprus and Greece, temporary suspension of the negotiations is a likely option.

However, Turkish commentators predicted that EU leaders might decide to put off any decision into next year. Such a move would allow the Turkish Government a clear run for re-election against a rising tide of nationalism. Only once re-elected would the Government be likely to make concessions on Cyprus. Election victory might herald another round of reforms from Mr Erdogan, but in the meantime he is shying away from the pro-EU stance that characterised the early days of his Government.

The veteran commentator Hasan Cemal said: “All sides have an interest in the talks continuing, even Cyprus, who would lose their leverage to demand concessions if Turkey were no longer in talks with the EU.”

The Commission noted political and economic reforms in Turkey but said that their pace had slowed. It singled out freedom of expression and treatment of the Kurds as areas where improvements are still required. With Romania and Bulgaria set to join the EU on January 1, the Commission’s policy is that no further countries should be allowed to enter before the EU has overhauled its decision-making structures to cater for more than 27 members.

Such a settlement is highly unlikely before 2009. As a result, Croatia, next in the membership queue, will have to wait at least three years.

OBSTACLES TO MEMBERSHIP

1999 Turkey becomes official EU candidate

October 2005 Austria and Croatia withdraw objections. Among 35 negotiating issues are reforms of military and judiciary and improvement of situation in Kurdish areas

June 2006 Talks on first of 35 negotiation “chapters”

September 2006 Turkey told to open ports to Greek Cypriot traffic. It refuses unless EU ends restrictions on northern Cyprus

October 2006 French make it a crime to deny Turkish responsibility for Armenian genocide in First World War

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