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The treaty has been regarded as dead, or at least in a state of suspended animation, since France and the Netherlands rejected it in referendums, saving Tony Blair from having to fight a politically bruising campaign to justify not only the treaty but also his whole European policy. Attempts to revive it will meet opposition from Britain and other European states.
Germany, one of the countries to ratify the constitution without a referendum, called its senior ambassadors back to Berlin last Monday to brief them on the new strategy. It is already clear that Germany is rejecting the idea, floated by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French presidential hopeful, and others, of extracting a few key points from the carcass of the treaty.
A German diplomat who attended the Berlin session with Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the Foreign Minister, said: “It is in our interest to try to preserve the maximum substance of the text. We are happy with it. We are not going to pick out the cherries. The 18 countries who ratified it do not want to look ridiculous.”
Germany’s plan is to spend the first three months of its presidency sounding out opinion across Europe — “active listening”, in the words of one diplomat. In March EU leaders will meet in the German capital to sign a short, crisp Berlin Declaration to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which first set out the idea of a common market. By June — with the political situation in Britain and France clearer — the Germans hope to produce a document that will set out terms for a possible consensus and a time frame for moves to adopt the constitution.
But even German analysts believe that Berlin is pitching its expectations too high. Jan Techau, who heads the Oppenheim Centre for European Analysis at the German Society for Foreign Policy, a leading think-tank, said: “Look, this treaty was never really a historic compromise. Some leaders put their signature to it only because they knew it would never be ratified.”
According to Mr Techau, Germany has no significant ally in Europe for a constitutional revival. “Everywhere you look there are lame ducks — a very thin majority in Italy, Chirac bowing out, Blair in his last days, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary with troubled governments or no government at all.”
Privately, German diplomats agree with this downbeat analysis but argue that the weakness of Europe could benefit Angela Merkel, the Chancellor, allowing her to shape the debate. One Foreign Ministry source said: “We can bring this forward faster than anyone realises.”
The main architect of the Berlin Declaration will be Christoph Heusgen, Mrs Merkel’s foreign policy adviser, who will also be trying to forge a consensus on the constitution.
Diplomats associated with Romano Prodi, the Italian Prime Minister, will also work on the constitutional project.
Rejected plan
June 2003 Draft submitted to EU summit
June 2005 Dutch “no” vote.
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