ARGENTINA may be the bookmakers’ favourite, Brazil may have been backed by the pundits and England fans may resolutely pray for victory. But according to scientists this year’s World Cup is more likely to be lifted by a German.

A study of the behaviour of sports teams suggests that playing at home not only guarantees more support and the comfort of familiar surroundings, but it also has a biological effect on the way players perform.

A study of football and ice- hockey teams carried out by scientists in Canada has revealed that team members playing at home experience higher levels of testosterone, the male sex hormone, compared with those playing away. And the authors of the report suggest an evolutionary behavioural link — relating to the basic need to protect territory.

Levels of the stress hormone cortisol were also found to be raised at home — indicating pressure not felt when on the road — as were levels of self-confidence.

The research, presented yesterday at the International Congress of Neuroendocrinology in Pittsburgh, supports strong trends previously observed in both professional and amateur sport.

In the World Cup, 6 of the 16 competitions have been won by home teams, and nations such as Sweden, Chile, South Korea and Mexico have defied the odds to reach the latter stages of the competition when playing as hosts.

Justin Carré, a member of the research team in the department of psychology at Brock University, Ontario, said that there was a pattern to hormonal responses, where a match was played and the outcome. Tests on ice hockey players before and after a game showed significantly higher increases in testosterone in those playing at home than in those playing away.

Mr Carré said that in sports in general the home team would typically win more often than it lost. But assumptions that this was because the visitors were worn down by the stress of travel and nights spent in unfamiliar hotels did not account for all factors. “Game outcome was a significant moderator of the testosterone response to competion,” he said.

Previous studies have also explored the impact of home advantage, and its possible causes. A recent report in the Journal of Sports Behavior suggested that it remains at a similar level across England’s four main domestic football leagues.

It has also been shown to vary greatly from country to country, with the greatest advantage found for teams playing in the Balkans. The lowest home advantage was found in the Latvian league.

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