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JOG out of the player’s tunnel and on to the field at Liverpool’s home ground and you pass under a sign. “This is Anfield” it reads.
On the face of it, it is only a cheap piece of plastic. But those who affixed it realise its true significance. It is intended to intimidate, and it does.
Science isn’t usually kind to footballing folklore. Most of the game’s clichés disappear when placed under the microscope. Not so home advantage.
Henry Stott, who has built a computer model of the Barclaycard Premiership for the weekly Times Fink Tank column, has calculated that, adjusting for the quality of the teams, a home team can be expected to score 37.29 per cent more goals than the away team. Let’s give a real example. The chances of England beating Germany in a neutral country would be 60 per cent. At home it would be 73 per cent. But a game in Germany gives England only a 45 per cent chance. Home advantage turns the weaker German side into favourites.
The main scource of the edge for the home team is that they tend to do more of the attacking. The result? More free kicks for the home team and more goals too.
In the meantime, managers are wising up. In 1973 the away team won only 19.9 per cent of matches. By 1999 they won 27 per cent. With three points available for a win since 1981, away managers have been disinclined to let their teams sit back and wait for a draw.
So home advantage is declining. Who knows, maybe one day it will disappear.
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