ARGENTINA has picked a better moment than in the past to reopen its case for the Falklands.

The declaration of a new “hardline” approach to the dispute has not come as a complete surprise, a year before presidential elections. But all the same, no obvious resolution is in sight. If anything, Argentina has made that less likely, in jettisoning its previous policy of “seduction” of the islanders. A fortnight ago Argentina formally asked Britain to reopen talks on the islands’ sovereignty in a speech to the United Nations decolonisation committee in New York.

Why now? One easy explanation is that President Kirchner wants to use it as part of his campaign for re-election in the October 2007 polls.

That is no doubt right, although the politics behind it are complicated. Since Kirchner came to power in 2003 he has tried to purge the military of those implicated in the “dirty war” waged by the junta which ruled from 1976 to 1983, falling a year after the Falklands conflict.

In particular, the Supreme Court has quashed laws granting military officers immunity for their actions in that period.That has proved hugely popular with Kirchner’s left-wing base. But it has triggered protests, even threats, from the armed forces. Some opposition leaders also accuse him of dwelling too much on the past — not the quality Argentina most needs in its leader.

Kirchner is gambling, however, that the mood internationally has swung in his favour — and he may be right. He may have reckoned that Britain has lost a level of support in the UN from its action in Iraq.

The US-led invasion has turned the mood of the UN General Assembly even more against “colonial” adventures than it was 24 years ago, if that is possible. At the same time, Latin American leaders are riding high on a new wave of left-wing populism.

On a practical note, he will also have noticed that British troops are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan. The timing of Argentina’s move shows how Iraq now contaminates parts of British foreign policy that appear to be entirely unrelated.

But if Argentina’s timing is good, does that mean it will now get somewhere? Probably not. The most that the UN committee seems likely to do, judging by its comments this summer, is to urge Britain and Argentina to reopen talks to resolve the matter peacefully.

As things stand, there is little chance of that. Britain stands by its position that while the islanders want to retain their British links it will adamantly defend their sovereignty.

Kirchner’s new drive marks a “drastic change” of policy, as the Argentinian press has described it. He has chosen to dump the “seduction” tactics of his predecessor Carlos Menem — to coax the islanders gradually to become more intertwined with Argentina. In that spirit he has banned additional charter flights to the islands and limited co-operation on fishing. He said in April that diplomacy did not mean living with “heads in submission”.

This seems a mistake. Granted, the seduction may not have been proceeding very fast. The islanders say they are delighted with the attention, investment and modernisation they have received from Britain since the conflict.

But it is hard to see how this deadlock would ever be resolved in the direction that Argentina wants other than by the islanders eventually developing links with that country, through business and marriage. Until then, the dispute makes good campaign fodder — but that is probably about all.

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