As ministers and officials boarded the Eurostar for Brussels last Thursday,
hopes ran high that a Briton could soon occupy the most prominent post in
Europe. “Tony Blair is the ideal candidate and he has a lot of support from
all quarters,” said one civil servant. “It is hard to see how he can be
stopped.”
Hours later, as a summit of 27 European Union leaders got under way, Gordon
Brown entered a meeting of centre-left politicians promising to promote
Blair as the first president of Europe.
He was promptly ambushed. Blair, complained one Euro-politician after another,
was tainted by the Iraq war and the wrong man to become the face of the EU
on the world stage. At one point a flustered Brown protested: “You need to
get real.”
Worse was to come. Late on Thursday it was clear that Angela Merkel, the
German chancellor, had turned against Blair. At a midnight briefing to
selected media in the Amigo hotel in Brussels, Merkel warned that the
president’s job should go to someone from one of the smaller EU countries.
Even Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president who had been Blair’s most ardent
supporter, appeared to change tack. “The names that come out of the hat are
not necessarily the ones that are finally chosen,” he told reporters.
Yet in the murky world of Brussels diplomacy nothing is ever quite what it
seems and yesterday British officials were insisting the Blair bid was not
dead. “The important thing about the past few days,” said one Whitehall
source, “is that no credible rival candidate has yet emerged.” Everything is
still to play for, it is claimed.
Adding to the intrigue, David Miliband, the foreign secretary, was emerging as
a frontrunner to take another new and powerful post, that of EU high
representative for foreign affairs. There is no possibility of both jobs
going to Britons.
Although Miliband publicly vouched he was “not available” and “not a
candidate”, The Sunday Times was told that he has had a series of
conversations with senior European politicians about the Brussels job.
One German diplomat said: “Miliband is clearly not going to say he is a
candidate at this stage ... but faced with a choice of possibly becoming an
opposition leader for the best part of his political life or assuming an EU
post of extraordinary significance, he will obviously opt for the latter.”
Downing Street officials are already preparing for Miliband’s exit from
British politics, which would prompt a cabinet reshuffle and parliamentary
by-election in his South Shields constituency.
In a week of dark politics and back-stabbing who, if anyone, is really telling
the truth? Is Blair’s bid to reinvent himself as Europe’s new president at
an end? Will the power-hungry Miliband abandon his goal of succeeding Brown
as Labour leader for a life as globe-trotting Eurocrat? And what impact will
these manoeuvrings have on the Tories and on Britain’s relationship with
Europe?
THE tangled story of Blair’s European ambitions has followed the up-and-down
fortunes of the Lisbon treaty. The blueprint for reform of the EU’s
structure was first agreed by EU leaders in June 2007 in the dying days of
Blair’s premiership. Among the treaty’s proposals was the creation of a new
post of president of the European council (a body made up of individual
state leaders). The role would be to chair the council meetings and “drive
forward its work”.
The president would also “ensure the representation of the union on issues
concerning common foreign and security policy”. In some hands the new
presidency might become the EU’s “head of state”.
Before the ink had even dried on the treaty, Blair’s name was linked to the
job. However, it has taken more than two years for the treaty to be ratified
— the parliament of each member state has had to approve it before it can
come into force. Last week the last refusenik, Vaclav Klaus, the Czech
president, got what he was demanding in a special opt-out to protect
national sovereignty. Ratification is expected to be completed in the next
fortnight.
Along the way Blair has maintained a discreet campaign for the president’s
post. While he has been busily raking in millions through speeches and
corporate work, Jonathan Powell, his former chief of staff, has quietly been
making representations to EU capitals.
Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, has used his network of contacts in
Europe to push the idea that a “big figure” is needed for president — in
other words, Blair. Another key supporter has been Alain Minc, a charismatic
and influential French lobbyist and television chat show host, who is a
close friend of Mandelson.
Public support came from Sarkozy and Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime
minister. Then last week Brown announced that he would campaign for Blair to
get the job.
The tide began to turn at a dinner between Sarkozy and Merkel in the Elsysée
Palace on Wednesday. Sarkozy argued that a high-profile operator was needed
to represent Europe. Merkel countered that “whoever speaks for Europe will
be listened to by everyone”.
Mindful that many smaller states — known as “the dwarves” — feared being
dominated by a figure such as Blair, Merkel argued that the presidency
should go to one of the smaller EU countries in the interests of
“maintaining a balance”. Her real, unstated objection to Blair was fear that
a powerful president would undermine Germany’s influence within the EU.
By Friday the French president had effectively withdrawn his support for
Blair. A classic EU stitch-up was emerging. A consensus was growing that the
president would come from a centre-right background, ruling out Blair, while
the new foreign policy chief would be a socialist politician. Brown is
understood to be willing to back Miliband for the post of EU high
representative for foreign affairs. In a further murky twist, some Whitehall
insiders suspect he may have professed his backing for Blair knowing full
well he had no chance of success.
German diplomats are understood to have made it clear to No 10 months ago that
Merkel wanted the council president to come from a smaller nation. So why
did Brown back him? Some suspect the prime minister saw the Blair candidacy
as a chance to create a political “dividing line” with the Conservatives and
put David Cameron on the back foot.
The mere prospect of Blair taking a Brussels job caused an embarrassing split
at the Conservative party conference last month. Boris Johnson, the London
mayor, broke ranks with official Tory policy and demanded a referendum if
Blair became president. It is no surprise, therefore, that Brown has done
all he can to keep Blair’s bid going for as long as possible.
Mandelson was promoting Blair in an interview this weekend: “If we want that
job to be a really influential job you are going to need someone with a good
brain and strong personality. Tony Blair has both.”
None of Blair’s more obscure rivals has gathered much momentum. Wolfgang
Schüssel, the former Austrian chancellor, Jan Peter Balkenende, the Dutch
prime minister, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister, who
have been named as possible candidates, also have their own enemies in
European capitals.
AMID the byzantine twists, attention is turning to the job of high
representative, a post which could also carry significant influence in
charge of EU “embassies” all over the world.
Although Miliband, 44, is sometimes criticised in the UK for his geeky
demeanour, in Europe he is regarded as a smooth operator. Martin Schulz, the
leader of the socialist group in the European parliament, said: “He would
most certainly make a superb candidate. Given the prospects of David Cameron
becoming the new prime minister of the UK, David Miliband would be the ideal
solution for the high representative post.”
Asked whether Miliband was actively lobbying for the job, Schultz said: “I
have had several positive discussions regarding the matter with Miliband
recently but I will not say anything that could bring any of my British
colleagues in a difficult position.”
British officials warn that Miliband should be wary of such flattery. One
civil servant claimed that those talking up his prospects were “false
friends” who were playing a diplomatic game designed to undermine Blair.
“David is indeed well respected in European capitals,” said the source. “But
his new supporters are only saying these things now because they want to
derail Tony Blair’s chances of getting the top job. Their aim is to spread
confusion and dissent in the British camp.”
For the Tories the prospect of Miliband winning a top EU post is more bearable
than Blair emerging as president. Cameron has made his position clear: “We
don’t support the idea of a president and we don’t support Tony Blair having
that role.”
Cameron is painfully aware that for the Conservatives Europe is a vote loser.
The fear in Tory high command is that victory for Blair could force a
destructive issue to the fore.
An influential Tory pollster said: “Successive elections in 2001 and 2005 have
shown that when the Conservatives turn to European issues, they repel the
key swing voters. They appear odd and ideological. It stops the party
talking about the soft issues, the need to focus on such as health and
education.”
Cameron is not yet out of the woods. Only once the treaty is ratified will the
positions of president and high representative be decided. Whether or not
Blair or Miliband is appointed, the Conservative leader faces having to
announce a risky new policy on Europe.
Previously he had promised a referendum on the treaty if the Tories came to
power before it was in force. That policy can no longer hold. Instead,
Cameron is expected to say there will be no referendum but the Conservatives
would seek to renegotiate aspects of the treaty with Brussels. There would
also be new legislation ensuring that any further constitutional change
would be subject to a popular vote.
After the era of Margaret Thatcher’s handbag and John Major’s Maastricht
“bastards”, Britain’s relations with Europe under Labour have been
comparatively peaceful. If the Tories arrive in government next year, things
will get stormier — whoever occupies the top jobs in Brussels.
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