MASS desertions of Iraqi troops and the defection of senior figures from President Saddam Hussein’s ruling family circle gathered pace ahead of today’s opening shots against Iraq.

Classified intelligence reports seen by The Times suggest that as many as three quarters of some Iraqi regiments in the area near the northern no-fly zone have fled. Nearly a quarter of the Republican Guard, whose loyalty to Saddam has until now been unquestioned, were also said to have deserted. In the mainly Shia Muslim south, 17 Iraqi soldiers gave themselves up to US-led forces in northern Kuwait, but Kuwaiti border guards were having to turn others back, telling them that they had to wait for the attack before they could surrender.

One of Saddam’s half-brothers has fled to Syria. Sab’awi Ibrahim Hasan Al-Tikriti, regarded in America as a possible war criminal, has sought refuge in Damascus.

His flight from Baghdad suggests “fractures developing within the regime”, according to the intelligence reports, updated four times a day, which paint a picture of the dying hours of a 30-year regime. But rumours that Tariq Aziz, the Deputy Prime Minister, had defected, were proved untrue when he appeared, cigar in hand, before the television cameras.“We are looking at wholesale desertions in some areas,” one officer said. “ Most want a quick andsudden or surprise attack, so that they have thean excuse for not putting up greater resistance.”

The intelligence reports could not be independently verified, but Vice-Admiral Lowell Jacoby, America’s most senior intelligence officer and director of the Defence Intelligence Agency, told the Washington Post that there was “a very real likelihood” that Iraq’s military could collapse “very quickly”.

In addition Massoud Barzani, the Kurdish leader in northern Iraq, told The Times that he had received a flurry of contacts from Iraqi troops, some of them high-ranking officers, saying that they planned to surrender when fighting began. “The numbers are great and the quality of people is significant,” he said.

US officials believe that the psychological warfare of recent months has severely weakened the resolve of Iraqi soldiers. Yesterday alone, American and British aircraft dropped another two million leaflets, urging Iraqi troops not to fight, over southeastern Iraq. Several EC130 Hercules transport aircraft over the Iraqi border have been broadcasting anti-Saddam messages on radio frequencies that Baghdad has been unable to block.

So poor is morale that in some areas Saddam has ordered the deployment of special forces officers to prevent regular officers from deserting. The last such report came in the past two days.

One US “psy ops” — psychological operation — unit dropped leaflets on Iraq’s 51st Mechanised Division on March 9 and 10. Four days later, 20 per cent of the division had deserted. “Many of those who have already gone are reporting that the rest are preparing to surrender,” an intelligence officer said.

In northern Iraq, between 43 and 75 per cent of regular soldiers have fled but the rate is lower around Baghdad.

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