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This week’s forecast is for high pressure building up into a heatwave by the weekend, making conditions for the coalition troops increasingly uncomfortable.
After last week’s ferocious sandstorms subsided, cooler northwest winds have brought more pleasant conditions, but towards the end of the week the wind is expected to shift to the southeast, blowing hot air in from Saudi Arabia and picking up humidity from the warm Gulf waters.
By Thursday the temperature in Basra is expected to reach 30C (86F), but in the central desert and Baghdad it could hit 33C (91F), possibly even 39C (102F), on Friday. For military personnel inside vehicles and wearing chemical protection suits, the temperature would feel at least 10 degrees higher.
Military sources said that every attempt was made to keep equipment cool with fans, but rising heat would cause problems, particularly for troops in older armoured vehicles that have no air conditioning. One of the workhorses of the British Army in Iraq is the Royal Engineers’ 432 armoured vehicle, whose air conditioning consists of “keeping the flaps open”.
The longer the war continues, the hotter the climate will get. “The troops who have been out there for several weeks will now be fully acclimatised, but even they will find it increasingly uncomfortable, especially if they have to wear chemical protection suits,” one military source said.
The biggest challenge would be for the US 4th Infantry Division, now beginning to arrive in Kuwait, who will have little time to acclimatise before they head to Baghdad.
Although it is difficult to predict the weather beyond five days, some computer models are forecasting that Baghdad will reach the low 40s (about 106F) by Sunday.
Troops will also be battling against oppressive humidity, which will be particularly bad in places such as Basra, because it is close to the sea.
A shamal desert wind is also expected to arrive today, possibly whipping up localised sandstorms.
These conditions serve as a warning that the window of weather opportunity for the coalition forces is steadily closing. The heat is going to become an increasing problem because Iraq is one of the hottest places in the world. From June to September temperatures regularly top 38C (100F).
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