Balding, bespectacled and pudgy-faced, Frederick Kagan would struggle to be noticed by, let alone inspire, the battle-weary US soldiers heading to Baghdad.

But this military historian and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-wing think-tank, managed last month to rekindle the flames of defiance deep within President Bush. At that time, the Iraq Study Group’s report appeared to represent a bleak consensus that the war was being lost. Mr Bush was being told to start bringing the troops home.

According to Mr Kagan’s colleagues, when the President met him it was as if a burden was lifted from Mr Bush’s shoulders. “He said, ‘Wow, you mean we can actually still win this war?’” one said. The title of Mr Kagan’s alternative strategy is Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq.

It arrived at the White House unsolicited, having originated outside the usual military planning channels, and suggests that America can still win through military might. Mr Kagan said there had never been enough US troops in Iraq and they had focused too much on killing insurgents rather than securing law and order.

He still fears possible half-measures on troop numbers. He has argued for a sustained increase of 35,000 troops rather than the expected “surge” of 20,000.

“The enemy always expects us to surge and leave. If we surge for three or six months and then pull our forces back, the enemy will be right there waiting.”

Times Recommends

• Would you live on the wrong side of the Berlin Wall?
• Wish you were here, says Iraq tourist board
• Russian policeman’s corruption plea to Putin