Michael Evans, Defence Editor of The Times
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Britain’s phased exit from Iraq has begun at an extraordinary time: security in Basra is worse now than it was three years ago, Shia militia extremist groups are battling it out for supremacy in the south, and Iranian influence is everywhere to be seen. Hardly the right conditions, one might suggest, for British troops to start withdrawing.
However, there comes a point when the military and the politicians have to decide whether the continuing presence of more than 7,000 British troops in southern Iraq is a positive factor, helping to improve security and the Iraqi people’s lives or whether they are part of the cause of the continuing violence.
This was the question raised so controversially by General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the Army, in his interview with the Daily Mail last October. But the real question is not whether the British are seen as an occupying, and therefore hostile, force in the minds of the Iraqis in the south - there are many Iraqis who have been begging the British to stay for fear of the consequences if they go home - but whether the Iraqi military and police forces can be trusted to take over the security responsibilities.
Despite all the encouraging signs in recent months, the answer is not yet clear. But unless they are given a chance to prove themselves, with the British in the background to step in if required, Iraq’s future will remain in the balance, and those intent on undermining stability in the south will take advantage and pursue their selfish, political ambitions.
An event took place in Basra on Tuesday which was hardly noticed, but which was symbolically significant. Iraq’s 10th Division, the army formation that has been nurtured and trained by British and Australian troops for the last three years, finally began taking its orders from Baghdad instead of the British commander of the Multinational Force Southeast in Basra.
The 10th Division of 12,500 troops is led by an admirable Iraqi commander called General Abdul Latif, who signed a memorandum of understanding with Major-General Jonathan Shaw, the British General Officer Commanding the multinational force. The division now comes under the command of a military headquarters in Baghdad. A small step but another sign of the Iraqis taking charge.
There are still concerns about the Iraqi police whose loyalty and dedication to the job are not guaranteed. Indeed, many are more committed to serving the cause of the Shia extremists than to the inhabitants of Basra province and elsewhere in the south. Nevetheless, with a strong army division watching over them, the police will gradually be reformed, and the bad eggs removed.
So what is left for the British to do? Increasingly their role will be to mentor their Iraqi counterparts but to move further into the background. The 4,000 troops expected to stay behind once the withdrawals have been completed by the end of this year will be consolidated in the large base at Basra airport. Patrols are also likely to continue, especially along the border with Iran, but it will be up to the Iraqis to decide what operations are necessary.
One of the problems with the Iraq story is that Washington has always seen it in terms of victory - or defeat. Operations of this nature should never be categorised in such a way. It’s too simplistic. But behind all the violence, the death of members of the British Armed Forces - 101, two of them women, killed in action - and horrific scenes, such as the soldiers set on fire during riots in March 2004 , there have been some outstanding achievements.
Mostly unpublicised, work has been going on ever since the end of the combat phase of the war on May 1 2003 to improve the lives of the Iraqis, to get children to school and to rebuild a society which had been cowed by three decades of tyranny. That has meant creating a new legal structure, developing a banking system, and forming an administrative framework out of which democratic, provincial government has emerged.
The British troops were greeted as liberators when they swept through Basra, and there was a genuine feeling of relief, even euphoria among the Iraqi people in the south. The euphoria did not last long because their expectations of instant improvement to their lives did not materialise.
Saddam Hussein had destroyed so much of the infrastructure by deliberate neglect that it was impossible to make short-term, dramatic changes. As the Iraqi people became disillusioned, the struggle for power led to violence and attacks on the British.
For the sake of those soldiers, sailors and airmen who have sacrificed their lives for Iraq, the Government’s exit strategy must not be viewed as a consequence of failure. If the Iraqi forces can successfully take charge, there is reason for optimism that Iraq will emerge as a reasonably democratic and stable nation.
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When is the right time to pull out? Tell us your view
The allies won. The secured the oil fields! Yet the price of petrol went up. WHAT A MAGNIFICIENT FIX!
kaleem sheikh, London, England
Britain cannot pull out as the job that Mr Blair had defined has not been done. Sadam has gone but there is a civil war now in Iraq. So what is the justification to pull out?? Mr Blair stay and restore democracy as you had promised. Of course, most who were for the war had not envisaged a civil war. There was never a plan B. We should have never gone to war in the first place. We could have used the money to improve our schools and the NHS. But now that we are in we have to do the decent thing and stay and create democracy, end the civil war and establish peace in Iraq. Does the government even know how to do this?? ah! how great it is to be born into demorcracy but do you know what it takes to create it Mr Blair???Take lessons from history!
Ruxana Nasser, Buckinghamshire,
It will be spin-job again - just like everything else Labour does. Who actually believes them anymore? Who actually trusts them now?
Phil, Preston,
It's interesting that we're being told to not view the exit strategy as a sign of failure, when to this day I don't see much but carnage and violence on the news reports from Baghdad. Has it not become painfully obvious that Iraq, Iran, Afganistan and pretty much all but one or two of the countries around that region are simply not interested in democracy? Agreeably they detest dictatorships, but they appear so hung up on the idea of sharia law and the "evil crusaders" of the west that I sincerely doubt any efforts to install a stable elected government in Iraq for the next 200-300 years will end with a Bush/Blair like leader shrugging their shoulders and uttering a procrastination when assaulted with accusations of failure, mismanagement and arrogance. No one should ever forget that 1000 troops are now dead, and probably 5 times that in Iraqi civilians, for absolutely nothing. Meanwhile Blair will get to step down in May, retire to the college circuit and grow old with a swollen belly
ade, Canary Wharf, London
The timing of the withdrawal is not at all surprising. Blair needs to pretend that the British Armed Forces have begun to accomplish their mission. Nothing to do with Blair's imminent departure from Downing St. or the hunt for a legacy of course.
Sinisa, Bermuda,
White House unhappy with timing of Prime Ministers announcement that British forces are being cut back
There are still concerns about the Iraqi police whose loyalty and dedication to the job are not guaranteed. Indeed, many are more committed to serving the cause of the Shia extremists than to the inhabitants of Basra province and elsewhere in the south.
Right .The votes are given. It is as soon as Prince goes. Read this.
Prince Harry moves into the line of fire as 1,600 troops get set to move out. In addition, he will be watched very closely when he is there.
That is what the article states.
White House unhappy with timing of Prime Ministers announcement that British forces are being cut back
Here comes the question. How does white House of Bush come into this issue? The announcements have been made. Troops are coming. Why raise the issue again.
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
Instead of removing 1600 troops from Iraq, who didn't Blair offer to send the troops to assist the US troops in Baghdad and Al-Anbar
province?
Johnny Zero, san jose, CA USA
An interesting analysis which does make one think differently about the outcome of Iraq and what success is measured by. One factor that springs to mind is that it should be noted that one unsung skill that British soldiers appear to have is keeping good relations (generally) with locals. This 'hearts and minds' policy is not new to the British army, it was empolyed successfully in the jungles in Indonesia in the 70's.
The success of our efforts in Iraq should not be viewed in the Washington model of shock and awe decimation of the 'enemy' (hard to define I think) but rather the strength, courage and skill shown by British soldiers, not just on the battle field but in diplomacy and training of the Iraq forces.
We should and will be proud of Her Majesty's armed forces whenever they all return, we all hope safely.
Neil, Rock Ferry, Merseyside
I just wonder if Mr Knights there would have the same opinion if a thousand or two of his friends would have got killed in a terrorist attack?
Darel Reynolds, Agra , Kansas USA
The British have done a fantastic job in Iraq. God Bless Tony Blair and the leadership of the British Armed Forces that made this just cause a success. I wish that the United States had a similar capacity for reconstruction and civil affairs. Britain has clearly shown us up in this regard. (I'm an American).
Our military is pretty good at rolling over other armies, but is ill prepared for the aftermath. We underestimated the fanatics resolve in destabilizing the new government. We've wept at your losses as thought hey were our own, and will not forget you for standing with us.
Hopefully, we learn lessons from this that will make future operations run more efficiently. I'd like to say that we'll learn how to make future operations unnecessary, but since we aren't the ones trying to burn the world down and install dictatorships and Islamic fundamentalist states, there isn't much we can do about that is there?
Dave Reed, Mobile, Alabama
There may never be a right time to pull out. There was never a right time to be there. The invasion was illegal and the perpetrators are war criminals. When they are out of office and out of their own homelands they will spend the rest of their lives fearing arrest on the orders of the successors to the Iraqi government of today. Bush will have less to fear than Blair. The USA will send a battle fleet to rescue him. If New Labour continues in office I suspect the UK's battle fleet will have been made redundant and pensioned off. How can we right the wrongs we have inflicted on people of Iraq? It is an impossible task even if we remained their for a thousand years. Can we resuscitate the dead? Can we make the mutilated whole? Can we remove the fear and horror from the minds of the survivors? I suspect not. I wonder how the two principal criminals who are reported to be god fearing men .can sleep in their beds at night.
Derek Knights, Ashford Middlesex, England
a society which had been cowed by three decades of tyranny.........................in 2004 you taken action ......so what was the reson for that...Earlier the saddam was serving so you people didn't bother about those thing
hahahhahah ..........a good joke keep on writing
haris , mumbai, india
Don't put it in. Then you don't have pull out.
Joe Shepler, San Francisco,
Any individual making personal and hate filled attacks on the President and others in charge of leading the effort in Iraq without offering a better solution only reveals his own stupidity and lack of responsibility. The loss of even one American soldier is a terrible thing but the price of freedom is never free. We kill from 40 to 50 thousand people in America each YEAR yet no one calls for the repeal of automobiles. We just try to make them safer!
Jerry J. Shaw, Okeechobee, Florida
We should transfer power to Iraq now, not latter. They must resolve their sectarian differences themselves. Outsiders will be resented and attacked at every opportunity. Left to themselves they will have to justify killing each other or learn how to get along. As soon as power is transferred we should leave immediately. We have done our best to rebuild Iraq without adequate support of the general pouplation. We have Lost Too many American Lives in Iraq.
Addison Barber, Flint, Michigan/U.S.A.
Right before Bush and Cheney are impeached.......Hopefully soon! Bush is stupid and Cheney is evil.
James, jACKSONVILLE,
I think US lead forces should leave Iraq right away. I beleive if US desires to attack Iran, it is better to disengage themselves from Iraq. Opening too many fronts ata time is not advisable
Naeem Javed, Lahore, Pakistan
they should never have been there in the first place. a lot of Iraq people, american and british soldiers have died in vain. In Vietnam 50000 soldiers died in vain. our leaders never seem to never learn the lessons of history. In the US we have the best government mlney can buy, but that doesn't mean they have any smarts. What would the British do if it ever got into a a war with russia or china or some other large nation. times are changing and the allies are not what trhey used to be. at least some of the eurpean nations had enough common sence to stay out of Iraq. Our leaders need to get brain transplants with working functioning brains
larry chappelle, longview, washington
The U.S. should withdraw now
Eidnoreid, Anchorage,
6 months
melvin l carpenter, tulsa, oklahoma
Personally I think the American pressence in Iraq is a contributing factor to the violence there. Many Iraqi's both Sunni and Shiite are living toogether peacefully and want that to continue.
The fact of the matter is that terrorist factions will continue to stur up these two groups against each other and against the "American invaders" as long as America stays in Iraq. This serves the terrorists and as stated in a few previouse articles they tend to focus on what works.
The fact of the matter is that ocupation never works, its been proved time and time again. At the moment the US forces in Iraq are an occupying force. it doesn't matter how many troops you throw into Iraq because it will just result in further bloodshed. I believe that if the US starts a phased withdrawal, with set announced dates, rather than increasing its troop pressent, things will start to improve rather than worsen. One must realise that what one side sees as a helping hand another side sees as invation.
Gordon, Durban, South Africa, Kwa-Zulu Natal
The continuing kidnappings and shootings so often attributed to corrupt police forces seem to make any short term peace initiative extremely unlikley.
These police are recruited and trained by the Iraqi Government and Occupying forces jointly so they have something of a responsibility in the matter. I do however have a question that seems so obvious I am surprised it has not been voiced before.
'Has nobody out there ever heard of Lie Detector Tests?'
A simple test of applicants could quickly determine if the individual had the best interests of Iraq at heart or whether they had ulterior motives. the trainees are on an 8 week course, plenty of time for such a test.
It may even be worth testing existing officers to determine who is undermining the peace efforts...
Alan Lane, Wokingham, England
I think that is fantastic. Harry wants to go over there and kick some a**!! Good for him! His mother would be proud, albeit, quite frightened. Oh well, she raised strong boys.
Kelly, McAllen, TX
The right time to pull out of Iraq is after this last pursuit of President Bush's attempt to help Iraqi government to stabilize the religious conflicts between Sunni and Shiites.
I firmly believed that the mess in Iraq can not be solved by U.S. and the allied forces as long as there is no unity in the U.S. political arena. Then too if other countries do not agree with U.S. policy, it does not help to solve the bad situation.
The only solution is let the Iraqi people solve their own problem without outside influence.
The United States should just stay out of other countries business or trouble. There is no sense helping other countries like in the past, most of the countries helped were not grateful for what U.S. did for them anyway.
Bring home all military personnel outside US and station them inside US and develop a tight structured strategy to keep out undeseriables and illegals entering in US.
Our politicians should concentrate on solving domestic
problems first.
Onofre Magpayo, San Jose, California
Is Tony abandoning his Allies to keep Harry out of harm's way?
Hal Schieve, Whittier, USA / California
Right now. Why you may focus on changing Iraquis perception of USA, when they are not willing to negotiate among theirselves ? Why USA want to send troops to do humanitarian aid missions while war gets worst every day and more US soldiers, property and iraquies loose !
Please explain
Juan G Marin, Fayetteville, North Carolina
Considering that we should never have got involved in the first place, 'now' is always the right time.
Raeburn Smith, Falkirk,
external military interference in a country's internal affairs could never have been and never will be condoned...regardless of how good the intentions are of the aggressor
Jayjee, Bombay,
start withdrawing now.... there will never be as Cheney wants, an honorable departure..
j anaya, calgary, AB Canada
the best time to start withdrawing was the first day of this war!!!
Manuel Luis Rodriguez, Punta Arenas - Magallanes, Chile