A military think-tank working for General David Petraeus, the US commander in Baghdad, has concluded that American troops have six months to create order in Iraq.

The so-called “Baghdad brains trust”, a group of officers and counter-insurgency experts hand-picked by General Petraeus, is reported to have warned him that the situation in Iraq was deteriorating and that US troops faced the prospect of a humiliating withdrawal.

The team was said to be aware that the US probably had no longer than six months to restore order in Iraq, otherwise Washington would implement “Plan B” — a hasty pullout, leaving the divided country to its fate.

They have advised General Petraeus that events on the ground conspired against the mission, citing obstacles such as insufficient troops, wavering coalition partners and a deterioration of troop morale. They predicted an upsurge of violence in southern Iraq as British troops withdraw, and anticipated a weakening of political will in Washington and Baghdad to back the troops.

General Petraeus took command of the 140,000-strong US force in Iraq last month with a brief to find ways to end the four-year insurgency. He is the author of the US Army’s counterterrorism manual and will oversee the “surge” that will push 21,500 additional US combat troops into Baghdad and central Iraq, a policy that has been criticised heavily in the US.

– A 21-year-old soldier who died after being injured in a patrol in Iraq was named yesterday as Rifleman Daniel Lee Coffey, from 10 Platoon, C Company, 2nd Battalion The Rifles.

The Ministry of Defence said that he had been returning to base at the Shatt al-Arab Hotel in Basra on Tuesday when his patrol was ambushed by two gunmen. He sustained “very serious injuries” from which he later died in hospital.

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