Iraqi and US generals have hailed a fall in insurgent attacks as proof that the Baghdad “surge” plan is begining to show results one month into the operation.

Yet despite an apparent fall in the number of kidnappings and murders, the scourge of car bombs and roadside bombs has not abated and most officers caution that the crucial bench-mark will be Baghdad’s death toll in the coming months.

General Qasim al-Mussawi, spokesman for the Iraqi operation, said that the number of civilians killed in the past month had fallen to 265, compared with 1,440 from mid-January to mid-February. But there was no way to verify the figures independently.

Major General William Caldwell, the spokesman for US forces in Iraq, said that “there has been an over 50 per cent reduction in murders and executions” since Operation Fardh al-Qanoon (Imposing the Law) began. But US and Iraqi forces still faced about 200 attacks each day.

“Attacks won’t stop suddenly but we’ll keep up momentum,” General Aboud Qanbar, the top military commander for the Baghdad security plan, said. Since mid-February two extra US military brigades have been deployed in the capital as part of the surge. Eventually an estimated 40,000 US troops will be in the Baghdad area, part of a force of about 90,000 US and Iraqi forces.

General al-Mussawi said that 713 insurgents had been arrested and another 1,152 suspects detained, while more than 2,000 displaced families have been returned to their homes.

General Muhammad Shahwani, the national intelligence chief of Iraq, told The Times that the ultimate test for the surge will be whether the death toll stays low. General Nasier al-Abadi, the deputy chief of the Armed Forces, said that proof of success will be seen through a big reduction in violence, successful reconciliation within Iraqi society and a resuscitation of the economy.

Once the plan produces results, US troops would withdraw from neighbourhoods. Then the Iraqi Army would leave and the Iraqi police would be left to assure stability.

The US Senate last night rejected a Democratic motion to set a March 2008 timetable for the withdrawals of troops from Iraq. The vote was 50-48 against the Democrat measure, 12 short of the 60 needed for its passage.

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