Marie Colvin
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
DESPITE sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and suicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants.
The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services.
The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war.
Officials in Washington and London are likely to be buoyed by the poll conducted by Opinion Research Business (ORB), a respected British market research company that funded its own survey of 5,019 Iraqis over the age of 18.
The 400 interviewers who fanned out across Iraq last month found that the sense of security felt by Baghdad residents had significantly improved since polling carried out before the US announced in January that it was sending in a “surge” of more than 20,000 extra troops.
The poll highlights the impact the sectarian violence has had. Some 26% of Iraqis - 15% of Sunnis and 34% of Shi’ites - have suffered the murder of a family member. Kidnapping has also played a terrifying role: 14% have had a relative, friend or colleague abducted, rising to 33% in Baghdad.
Yet 49% of those questioned preferred life under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to living under Saddam. Only 26% said things had been better in Saddam’s era, while 16% said the two leaders were as bad as each other and the rest did not know or refused to answer.
Not surprisingly, the divisions in Iraqi society were reflected in statistics — Sunnis were more likely to back the previous Ba’athist regime (51%) while the Shi’ites (66%) preferred the Maliki government.
Maliki, who derives a significant element of his support from Moqtada al-Sadr, the hardline Shi’ite militant, and his Mahdi army, has begun trying to overcome criticism that his government favours the Shi’ites, going out of his way to be seen with Sunni tribal leaders. He is also under pressure from the US to include more Sunnis in an expected government reshuffle.
The poll suggests a significant increase in support for Maliki. A survey conducted by ORB in September last year found that only 29% of Iraqis had a favourable opinion of the prime minister.
Another surprise was that only 27% believed they were caught up in a civil war. Again, that number divided along religious lines, with 41% of Sunnis believing Iraq was in a civil war, compared with only 15% of Shi’ites.
The survey is a rare snapshot of Iraqi opinion because of the difficulty of working in the country, with the exception of Kurdish areas which are run as an essentially autonomous province.
Most international organisations have pulled out of Iraq and diplomats are mostly holed-up in the Green Zone. The unexpected degree of optimism may signal a groundswell of hope at signs the American “surge” is starting to take effect.
This weekend comments from Baghdad residents reflected the poll’s findings. Many said they were starting to feel more secure on the streets, although horrific bombings have continued. “The Americans have checkpoints and the most important thing is they don’t ask for ID, whether you are Sunni or Shi’ite,” said one resident. “There are no more fake checkpoints so you don’t need to be scared.”
The inhabitants of a northern Baghdad district were heartened to see on the concrete blocks protecting an Iraqi army checkpoint the lettering: “Down, down with the militias, we are fighting for the sake of Iraq.”
It would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Residents said they noted that armed militias were off the streets.
One question showed the sharp divide in attitudes towards the continued presence of foreign troops in Iraq. Some 53% of Iraqis nationwide agree that the security situation will improve in the weeks after a withdrawal by international forces, while only 26% think it will get worse.
“We’ve been polling in Iraq since 2005 and the finding that most surprised us was how many Iraqis expressed support for the present government,” said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB. “Given the level of violence in Iraq, it shows an unexpected level of optimism.”
Despite the sectarian divide, 64% of Iraqis still want to see a united Iraq under a central national government.
One statistic that bodes ill for Iraq’s future is the number who have fled the country, many of them middle-class professionals. Baghdad has been hard hit by the brain drain — 35% said a family member had left the country.
Additional reporting: Ali Rifat
ORB interviewed a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults between February 10-22. The margin of error was +/- 1.4%.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the collective power of smart thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Flip MinoHD Camcorder
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
42,945
2008
71,450
Car Insurance
Not Specified
MI6
UK-based
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Save up to £1,000 per couple with Elite Vacations at the five-star Constance Lemuria Resort
and do the British Isles this Summer.
Save up to 60% with Oxford Hotels and Inns
Try our inspiring luxury holidays to the Indian Subcontinent and South East Asia.
Great offers available
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
See the later September 2007 poll by ORB, which estimates that 1.2m Iraqis have died as a result of bringing them democracy. Oh, and in addtion to the other one million injured, there's also the two to three million displaced or fled to neighbouring countries. About 75 have been admitted to the US/UK - collaborators always welcome.
Joe Smith, Dublin,
The radically different results reported in this survey compared to that reported by USA Today/ABC News/BBC from a survey over roughly the same period prompted me to look at the survey methodology used by ORB (the Sunday Times Poll) versus that used by the firm that conducted the poll for various newspapers.
Suffice to say that the ORB survey results are at least highly questionable on numerous grounds. These include the apparent political bias of the polling organization (judging from its website); the lack of detailed information about its sampling methodology; the absurdly large sample size, suggesting a lack of understanding that it is sampling selection not sample size that determines accuracy; the reliance on unnamed "partners" in Iraq to conduct the interviews; and the fact that ORB financed the survey independently, suggesting a lack of accountability to a client.
All in all, the survey sponsored by news organizations appears to be much more reliable.
Stephen Hendricks, Sammamish, USA/Washington
I can't believe how so many people in the West just don't get it. The idea of democraticizing Iraq who has suffered under such a tyranical regime is a noble one. The Polls clearly show that a clear majority of Iraqis agree. I think history is getting shed a positive light on Blair and Bush. I am curious to see if Al Jazerra has aired this poll.
Frank, Miami, Florida/United States
I think it's unreasonable to think that such a poll should be construed as if everything were great in Iraq. The Christians have suffered and Iraq's sectarian violence appears to have done to the Christians what previously cleared out the Jews of Iraq. And the point about former Sunni privilege is apt. Sunnis consider Shia as heretics and have similar views in Iraq to those of Americans during the Jim Crow era had toward black people.
Things aren't great. But are they mostly better? Would seem so. Having spent years in Central Asia, this makes sense to me. All options are, by American standards, rather awful. Think of your great grandfather's time and our own bloody history. The road is long and very hard. The legacy of terrible oppression deeper than most Americans can fathom.
Brian, Davis, CA
Appears as if BBC poll was oversampled in Anbar province - the places where most of the violence is.
Talk about BIAS
John, New York, NY
I think asking Iraqis wether they face civil war or not is one way of getting a positive view of how things are. The majority will say no. If you were instead to ask them, how is everyday life now? You would get a far far gloomier answer. Thats the difference between this poll and the BBC's. Iraq is facing terminal decline in living standards. But perhaps not an immediate civil war. Is life in Iraq now much worse than under Saddam? without a doubt. Thats what these two polls show. That Iraq is a country with a strong national sentiment, but the lives of ordinary Iraqi is extremely volatile and grim.
Ruairi, Brighton,
This does make you question the doom and gloom polls, reported prominently and regularly by Western outlets including the BBC. - perhaps those are based heavily on refugees and Sunnis? Goes to show that the story is more complicated. As for blogs, these represent the opinions of individuals, who have a strong point of view (do we know the bloggers' backgrounds - how many people who lost privileges they enjoyed under Saddam?) and the facility and time to voice it on the web. Granted, polling is unreliable in a place like Iraq, but blogs??
Ravi, Warren, NJ
They do the breakdown by urban/rural, and by city/region with Baghdad numbers on their own. Go look at the full report available on their website.
Hawke, Albuquerque, NM, USA
The views of Iraq in total were not separated from the views of those residing in Baghdad, where the majority of sectarian violence is. Why not?
Jack Hilden, Tampa, Fl. /USA
"This poll does not reflect the feels of those who I receive e-mails from or whose Baghdad blogs I read."
Talk abouit a completely unscientific poll. You know, the soldiers I have met and comunicated with IN IRAQ would agree with the poll results.
"I met many Iraqi refugees when I was in Jordan and Syria who do not reflect the number in your polls."
Well, since the poll is of people CURRENTLY IN IRAQ, then maybe your "sources" in Syria and Jordan haven't a clue about the true state in Iraq. It's also quite likely that since YOUR "sources" are refugees no longer living in Iraq, perhaps they are Saddam sympathizers who miss the halcyon days of wanton murder, rape and torture carried out by Saddam, his family and their supporters. Two sides to every coin, eh Cathleen? lol
MIke, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
This poll does not reflect the feels of those who I receive e-mails from or whose Baghdad blogs I read. Were those polled living in the Green Zone or Jordan? There are many corrupt policians and government employees making millions from the US occupation. It sounds like those were the ones you interviewed.
I met many Iraqi refugees when I was in Jordan and Syria who do not reflect the number in your polls. I met many Christian Iraqis, who fled Iraq because of the Islamic Fundamentalist, who left under the threat of death.
Cathleen Krahe, Carbondale, US/Colorado
Yeah, but to get a realistic picture the researchers should really have convassed opinion OUTSIDE the greeen zone!
Kenneth, London, UK
If there are one million Iraqis who have left the country, and 35% of this poll say they have a family member who has left, and if 26% say they have had a family member killed, then the Lancet estimate would seem to be correct. At least 600,000 Iraqis have died as the result of the invasion.
Don McEwing, Tigard, OR, USA
You're drawing some pretty cheerful assessments from some rather mixed data.
If you look at the poll's data, nowhere in it did it say that people prefered life today than under Saddam. Rather, it said that a majority preferred the current "political system" as opposed to the previous one. Indeed, looking at the data, the current political system is favorable to Sh'ia. Not su much for the Sunni, however, who prefered Saddam's system of government by a nearly 2-1 margin, or for the Kurds surveyed, who said they would rather have an independent government, than the current centralized one.
Amongst other things, the survey says that 53% of Iraqis believe that the security situation will improve in Iraq once Coalition forces withdraw, as compared to 32% who disagree. These percentages are significantly higher if you ignore the Kurdish region, largely spared from combat.
Mark Kraft, Santa Clara, CA, USA
Maybe President Bush actually knows what he is doing!
Ryan, Fort Collins, CO
Good news, indeed. Not just for America and the other Coalition nations, but mostly for the people of Iraq.
There is still hope and promise for that nation. Its potentional is mind-boggling.
Let's all just hope that Iraq lives up to it.
Robert Conner, Claremore, OK USA
What really is bugging me is that this story can't seem to be found on most of the major news online sites. Why would that be? Why would a news company want to hold back news which appears to show that some things are going "right" in Iraq?
I stumbled onto this on Fox News and then checked CNN and BBC and nothing.
If time allows I'm going to record further searches, because there is something here that is very educational. I think I have been ignoring the statements I've been hearing that certain "news" companies only pass along stories that match their own agenda. I don't think that was what folks wanted a long time ago when they were asking for "freedom of the press", is it?
Michael, Tokyo, Japan
Well, clearly the Iraq's aren't as smart as the reporters and editors at The Guardian, the BBC, the New York Times, or Washington Post. Surely we need to eduate them on their ignorance and let them know that all is bad in their country. Besides, we all know America and Britain couldn't have done the right thing in Iraq, those esteemed journals and perveyors of what they call "the news" tell us so daily. Amazing how they can't even see how bad off they are now and what a paragon of virtue and enlightened leadership Saddam and his two glorious, caring sons were. How foolish can they be?
Jim Dixey, Bryan, Texas, USA
I am heartened to see the Iraqis rejecting the patronising attitude of some of your political columnists (most notably Matthew Parris) that they are too tribalistic, primitive and violent to handle that sophisticated concept we Westerners call "Democracy".
That they are suffering a Nash equilibrium similar to that in Northern Island, has long been obvious to some of us; that they also have the ability to cooperate to break it, is a confirmation of their long long history of civilisation.
If only we stay the course, Mr Blair will get another legacy to add to his Good Friday Agreement.
Reg Brissenden, Dorchester, Dorset UK