Iraq’s Foreign Minister gave warning yesterday that a hasty US withdrawal could plunge the country into full-scale civil war and ultimate collapse, just as President Bush faces mounting domestic pressure to pull out.

Amid a growing Republican rebellion over the President’s “surge” strategy and intensifying pressure from Congress for a troop withdrawal, Hoshyar Zebari said that the US had to stay the course or face catastrophic consequences. He was responding to reports that the White House was discussing the possibility of announcing a gradual withdrawal of troops from Baghdad before September’s pivotal progress report. The aim would be to halt Republican defections before General David Petraeus, the US ground commander, reports to Congress.

If Mr Bush fails to heed Republican calls to begin a troop withdrawal, he risks causing severe political damage to his own party and a full-scale revolt after September, with a troop withdrawal being forced on him by Congress. But if he bows to domestic political pressures he will be accused of walking away from the beleaguered Iraqi Government that he has pledged repeatedly to support until the country is secure.

Tony Snow, Mr Bush’s spokesman, said that talk of a withdrawal was premature, and the surge was still at a “very early stage”. But in recent days neither he nor other White House spokesmen have ruled out a pull-out of US troops next year. One, Tony Fratto, said: “It shouldn’t come as any surprise that we here in the Administration . . . are thinking about what happens after a surge. A surge, by definition, is temporary in nature.”

Iraq timeline: five years of conflict

From accusations that the weapons of mass destruction dossier had been sexed-up to withdrawal of British troops from Basra

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Referring to calls by Republican senators for an immediate change in course, Mr Fratto said: “I think it’s important to remember they’re not talking about a precipitous withdrawal. We want to get us to a place after the surge where we can think about how we can draw down troops going forward.”

Mr Zebari said that a troop withdrawal would leave a security vacuum in Iraq: “The dangers could be a civil war, dividing the country, regional wars and the collapse of the state . . . Until Iraqi forces are ready, there is a responsibility on the United States to stand with the [Iraqi Government] as the forces are being built.”

In a sign of growing concern within the Administration over the fate and direction of its Iraq policy, Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, cancelled a trip to Latin America to attend talks on Iraq. He is also involved heavily in the writing of an interim report, to be delivered to Congress by the end of the week, on the progress made by the Government of Nouri al-Maliki in meeting a series of benchmarks laid down by Washington. With Mr al-Maliki facing the possibility of a no-confidence vote as early as this week, and his administration in crisis with nearly a third of Iraqi MPs boycotting parliament, the Pentagon’s report to Congress on July 15 is expected to be far from optimistic.

It is likely to say that little real progress has been made towards the crucial goals of political accommodation and progress between Sunnis and Shias, a failure that will increase calls on Capitol Hill for a change in course.

Mr Bush faces fresh challenges this week over his Iraq policy, opening yesterday with the start of a two-week debate in the House and Senate before a barrage of votes aimed at forcing a withdrawal of US troops. Over the weekend three more Republican senators called for a change of course.

Twelve of Iraq’s 37 ministers have suspended or scrapped their participation in the Cabinet, including six loyal to the radical Shia cleric Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, whose support has been crucial to Mr al-Maliki’s survival.

Republican dissenters are, in essence, calling for a centrist, bipartisan change of policy based on last year’s Iraq Study Group recommendations, which advocated a withdrawal of US combat troops next year, leaving 60,000-80,000 behind to train the Iraqis and fight al-Qaeda.

Stephen Biddle, a senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has been advising General Petraeus, told The Times that the approach might be politically helpful for the Republican Party at home but would be a military disaster in Iraq, leaving the remaining US troops “to be shot at”, and a country falling deeper into sectarian division, he said. “There is a far better case for both the extreme positions in the US,” Mr Biddle said.

— The Turkish Army has 140,000 soldiers on its border with Iraq. It wants an incursion into northern Iraq to crush Turkish Kurdish militants there.

Bush’s benchmarks

— Amend the constitution to make it more balanced after Sunnis largely ignored the original drafting. No agreement

— Allow some members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath party back into the military and Government. Yet to be agreed

— Set date for new local elections. Yet to be agreed by Cabinet

— Pass oil law ensuring equitable distribution of future oil revenues among different regions. Draft agreed by Cabinet but yet to go before parliament, where it is criticised by all sides.

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