Deborah Haynes in Baghdad and Tim Reid in Washington
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Iraq’s Foreign Minister gave warning yesterday that a hasty US withdrawal could plunge the country into full-scale civil war and ultimate collapse, just as President Bush faces mounting domestic pressure to pull out.
Amid a growing Republican rebellion over the President’s “surge” strategy and intensifying pressure from Congress for a troop withdrawal, Hoshyar Zebari said that the US had to stay the course or face catastrophic consequences. He was responding to reports that the White House was discussing the possibility of announcing a gradual withdrawal of troops from Baghdad before September’s pivotal progress report. The aim would be to halt Republican defections before General David Petraeus, the US ground commander, reports to Congress.
If Mr Bush fails to heed Republican calls to begin a troop withdrawal, he risks causing severe political damage to his own party and a full-scale revolt after September, with a troop withdrawal being forced on him by Congress. But if he bows to domestic political pressures he will be accused of walking away from the beleaguered Iraqi Government that he has pledged repeatedly to support until the country is secure.
Tony Snow, Mr Bush’s spokesman, said that talk of a withdrawal was premature, and the surge was still at a “very early stage”. But in recent days neither he nor other White House spokesmen have ruled out a pull-out of US troops next year. One, Tony Fratto, said: “It shouldn’t come as any surprise that we here in the Administration . . . are thinking about what happens after a surge. A surge, by definition, is temporary in nature.”
Referring to calls by Republican senators for an immediate change in course, Mr Fratto said: “I think it’s important to remember they’re not talking about a precipitous withdrawal. We want to get us to a place after the surge where we can think about how we can draw down troops going forward.”
Mr Zebari said that a troop withdrawal would leave a security vacuum in Iraq: “The dangers could be a civil war, dividing the country, regional wars and the collapse of the state . . . Until Iraqi forces are ready, there is a responsibility on the United States to stand with the [Iraqi Government] as the forces are being built.”
In a sign of growing concern within the Administration over the fate and direction of its Iraq policy, Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, cancelled a trip to Latin America to attend talks on Iraq. He is also involved heavily in the writing of an interim report, to be delivered to Congress by the end of the week, on the progress made by the Government of Nouri al-Maliki in meeting a series of benchmarks laid down by Washington. With Mr al-Maliki facing the possibility of a no-confidence vote as early as this week, and his administration in crisis with nearly a third of Iraqi MPs boycotting parliament, the Pentagon’s report to Congress on July 15 is expected to be far from optimistic.
It is likely to say that little real progress has been made towards the crucial goals of political accommodation and progress between Sunnis and Shias, a failure that will increase calls on Capitol Hill for a change in course.
Mr Bush faces fresh challenges this week over his Iraq policy, opening yesterday with the start of a two-week debate in the House and Senate before a barrage of votes aimed at forcing a withdrawal of US troops. Over the weekend three more Republican senators called for a change of course.
Twelve of Iraq’s 37 ministers have suspended or scrapped their participation in the Cabinet, including six loyal to the radical Shia cleric Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, whose support has been crucial to Mr al-Maliki’s survival.
Republican dissenters are, in essence, calling for a centrist, bipartisan change of policy based on last year’s Iraq Study Group recommendations, which advocated a withdrawal of US combat troops next year, leaving 60,000-80,000 behind to train the Iraqis and fight al-Qaeda.
Stephen Biddle, a senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has been advising General Petraeus, told The Times that the approach might be politically helpful for the Republican Party at home but would be a military disaster in Iraq, leaving the remaining US troops “to be shot at”, and a country falling deeper into sectarian division, he said. “There is a far better case for both the extreme positions in the US,” Mr Biddle said.
— The Turkish Army has 140,000 soldiers on its border with Iraq. It wants an incursion into northern Iraq to crush Turkish Kurdish militants there.
Bush’s benchmarks
— Amend the constitution to make it more balanced after Sunnis largely ignored the original drafting. No agreement
— Allow some members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath party back into the military and Government. Yet to be agreed
— Set date for new local elections. Yet to be agreed by Cabinet
— Pass oil law ensuring equitable distribution of future oil revenues among different regions. Draft agreed by Cabinet but yet to go before parliament, where it is criticised by all sides.
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Sir,
The Neo-conservative Americans were straining at the reins in order to destroy the civic infrastructure under the dictator Saddam. Surely they should finish what they started, even though they let all hell break lose, instead of childishly blaming the powerless citizens, or putting the burden on the rest of the world?
A Golden Rule: If it isn't broken, don't try & fix it, especially in the historically complex region of the Middle East. P.s. Even if you are the Top Dog!
SC, London, United Kingdom
The US should make it very clear to the international community - the UN, various arab governments et al - that there will be a complete withdrawal and disengagement by the US unless other countries assist. The crass posture that this is a illegal assault on the Iraqi civilian population by an overbearing Western power has to be shown to be as flimsy and foolish as it truly is. If no significant contribution (approx 50% of the burden) is forthcoming, the US should not subsequently participate in any regional peacekeeping efforts beyond protecting Israel and the oil channels. If the rest of the World wants to do nothing but stand on the sidelines and lob snide remarks, let the US follow their lead, and let the carnage ensure. I am sure everyone will think it was the right thing to do.
Nick, Rotherham, UK
Iraq is right if the US and UK withdraw its troops there will be a civil war. But the fact is that most people in the USA and UK don't care. Its not their problem.
After a dictator dies or is toppled there is often civil war between rival factions, whether it be Sunni, Shiites, Croats or Serbians. After a period of civil war peace usually- if not always- results.
The presence of US and UK troops is just delaying it. Let the Iraqi people sort out there own mess - its called self determination.
Carl Teper, Madrid, Spain
I just saw on the CNN that the Iraqi lawmakers
are planning to take two months off for vacation.
Let's see...the country is falling apart and American troops are dying whilst trying to give them some breathing room to try and gain control and stop the internecine bloodletting. What's wrong with this picture????
Bruce L. Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA
Iraq is already in a civil war and has been since the Sunnis and Shias started openly attcking eachother.
No wants to admit it because of that will be the same as admitting total failure of trying to implement democracy in the region
Giles Dawnay, Lautoka, Fiji
The senior members of the Iraqi Government will do and say exactly what the US tells them to do and say whilst they are being "encouraged" through monthly payments reputed to be upto $2 million.
Andrewsan, Yokohama, Japan
Warning that the country could slide into full scale civil war? What do they think is going on now?????"
Bruce L. Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA
"...Majority of Americans want a complete pull out form Iraq. Bush & Co will obviously prevent this at any cost." Stanzler, NY, USA
"Please, stop with the "American people elected George Bush". " Sammy, Detroit, MI, USA
"It was a foolish war, by a foolish man, sold to a foolish congress!" Mike Hermsen, Omaha, Nebraska/U.S.A.
Regardless of whether you voted for him and whether it was a fair election, you're the ones that apparently live in a 'democracy' and you're the only ones that can do anything about it. Don't worry, we're told we live in a 'democracy' too, yet not one single person in the UK voted for Mr Brown!
Rod Munch, Northampton, UK
The British Military ski-daddled right home when the 13 British Colonies revolted to become The United States of America. Keeping the Coalition Military as mea culpa sitting ducks during this ongoing civil war shows that Iraq is not a country capable of independance- let alone recognise their unique differences in religion, tongue, and race. Iraq has been annexed as the next State in The United States of America because these warring people already dominate the agendas of the Senate and the House of Representatives in that country.
John Jacobson, Brandon, Canada
Iraq will slide into civil war???? What the hell is going on there right now?
Bruce Northwood, Washgingto, D.C., USA
US pro-Israeli poklicy towards middle east should be reviewed and carry out a basic and fundamental change. Remenber, no military, no matter how mighty it is, can solve international disputes, let alone success of interferance with internal affairs of other countries.
Wang G L, Beijing , China
Lets be clear - the US intended there to be a Civil War.
Death squads (as in Vietnam, Central America etc) were active within weeks - their first targets were academics speaking out against the invasion. Many of those professors were Sunni, which is why the insurgency turned on the Shia, as well as on the US.
The US-backed death-squads have caused a stagggering amount of suffering - but they've been defeated by even better death-squads. The organisational skills (and the funding) of the Sunni old hands is streets ahead - and the atrocious behaviour of US forces has played into the hands of the Wahabbists.
Most disappointingly, UK forces have been brutalised by contact with US forces (eg siege of Fallujh). Our forces were caught red-handed trying to bomb Basra, we've become as much a part of the problem as US forces.
What we can we do now? Well, we could start by putting the culprit into a cage made of the rifle barrels of his followers and shipping him to Baghdad. As deck cargo!
Andy Dyer, London, UK
We can not stay there for ever, and when we leave internal pressures will determine the outcome. It will undoubtedly be prolonged and bloody and may even result in an Islamic fundamentalist State - which will be entirely contrary to the intended result.
Bush and Blair were warned of this likely outcome prior to invasion but chose to ignore the warning because it didn't tally with their ambitions. They have nobody to blame but themselves.
Ton Jones, Grantham, Lincs
Surely the best solution is to have non-partisan peace keepers to help maintain peace in Iraq after the AMerican forces leave?
javed, london, uk
"Iraqâs Foreign Minister gave warning yesterday that a hasty US withdrawal could plunge the country into full-scale civil war and ultimate collapse"
Puppet governments will obey their masters. Majority of Americans want a complete pull out form Iraq. Bush & Co will obviously prevent this at any cost.
Stanzler, NY, USA
Please, stop with the "American people elected George Bush".
The 2000 election was stolen with the help of the now Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Chief Justiceship, payoff????
The elections in 2002 and 2004 were stolen by the use of riged voting machines and the disenfranchisment of millions of black and hispanic voters.
Sammy, Detroit, MI, USA
Finally it is being realised that the US and its allies will have to go.The key question is when.The Bush Admininistration has only a finite period in office and after January 2009 the problem is passed to its successor.Those like Mr al-Maliki however have no ranch to retire to and when the invader leaves he and many others will face a blood bath as scores are settled and Iraq is torn apart yet further by an unmediated civil war.
Those Iraqi politicians who thought that the world's only superpower would be there for the long haul do not understand the short term nature of politics on Capitol Hill.Tragically they may lose office and probably their lives when troops are withdrawn and the highly sectarian indigenous Iraqi army breaks into religious and tribal factions
across the country.
BILL JACKSON, Nottingham, UK
Iraq is in civil war!
PB, Hampshire,
The Iraqis have had their chance to decide, now it is our time to leave.
It was a foolish war, by a foolish man, sold to a foolish congress!
Mike Hermsen, Omaha, Nebraska/U.S.A.
I just saw on the CNN that the Iraqi lawmakers
are planning to take two months off for vacation.
Let's see...the country is falling apart and American troops are dying whilst trying to give them some breathing room to try and gain control and stop the internecine bloodletting. What's wrong with this picturE????
Bruce L. Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA
I told you so
Sam Danso, London, UK
Well, what can one say about Iraq, except that the whole Bush,Blair's criminal war has been a total mess. They Stupidly allowed the Gini to come out from the boottle, and now find it impossible to put him back.
The old maxim used to be, if you break it you mend it,sadly that no longer applies in Iraq. Now it is a case break it and leave.
Chris Jaggo, Stockton-on-Tees, U.K.
So the US will have to stay in Iraq even longer. In the meantime you US tax-payers will pay your Government even more, not just for the armed services but also to the private companies - like Halliburton - that are given huge contracts by your Government for the 'rebuilding' of the country. Somebody is doing quite well out of all this but it isn't the Iraqi people and it isn't the US tax-payer.
Rod Munch, Northampton, UK
Now they are arguing over degrees of chaos. But wait, it can't be chaos, for to have chaos you must first have order.
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Kanagawa
I like that! Malaki says if the American leave, the Iraqis will have a target vacuum, and so will kill each other instead of killing the american soldiers. The the American punching bag leaves, then the americans will be responsible for the new Iraqi deaths.
God gave the Iraqi people a chance for peace, prosperity and liberty. They have slapped away God's outstretched hand and have instead chosen revenge, murder and poverty.
Lee, sterling, va
Too bad- so sad. The Iraqi have had 6 years to train a police force and an army that as of now may total over 300,000 people. If that force cannot secure the country then the us forces of 160,000 are wasting time and manpower not to mention lives forcing democracy where it isnt wanted enough to achieve it on their own! Enough! Pull out our (U.S.) troops by the end of the year and end the slaughter of innocent iraqi civilians as well as the deaths of all those in uniform! And good luck to a country that needs to be handling its own civil war.
Kevin, Omaha, ne/USA
No, there will be a civil war if Muslims want it that way.
The fact is they had a chance to choose what happened in Iraq after Saddam and they chose brutal, barbaric, religious sectarian violence.
The 'religion of peace' chose to rape, torture and murder fellow Muslims (and others) in massive numbers, be they men, women or children, often in Muslim holy places on Muslim holy days.
Their present is of their choosing and their future will be of their choosing.
Dave Brock, Stoke On Trent, UK
Apart from GOP, Bush and Chaney does anyone seriously believe that a civil war is not raging in Iraq right now?
Suusi M-B, Harpenden, UK
President Bush has already decided to pull out of Iraq. The consequences in Iraq, Iran and the Middle East will be the nest President's problem.
Allan, Bellevue, WA, USA
People wonder how the US could have re-elected Bush. Obviously the mistake was going into Iraq in the first place. In the 2004 elections John Kerry could not in good conscience call for an immediate pullout, knowing that would cause the country to collapse. He famously said, "We are where we are." He couldn't criticize the original decision to invade because he voted for it. So he appeared weak while Bush looked resolute. Now we still are where we are. There is no good way out. It's all just political posturing.
James Lachowsky, Swindon, Wiltshire
As the war in Iraq is a war of image, surely the best course of action would be to withdraw the Coalition forces and replace them with UN Peacekeepers
Rob, Oxford, England
Yeah, just as well US troops are staying to keep the peace... anyway, I'm off for coffee on the moon. Back when civil war breaks out in Iraq...
Luis, London,