The US general overseeing President Bush’s surge strategy in Iraq said last night that he would recommend troop reductions by next summer, but cautioned against a significant withdrawal.

General David Petraeus, in comments that appeared to lay the ground for his pivotal report to the US Congress next month, said that the US footprint in Iraq would have to be “a good bit smaller by next summer”. But he also signalled that the surge would continue into next year, and gave warning against a quick or hefty withdrawal that could surrender “the gains we have fought so hard to achieve”.

General Petraeus said that the “horrific and indiscriminate attacks” on the Yazidi community in northwestern Iraq on Tuesday night were the work of al-Qaeda fighters. The bombings occurred near the Syrian border, and US officials charge the Damascus regime has not done enough to police the frontier against infiltration by foreign fighters who dominate al-Qaeda. Those bomb attacks would bolster his argument, General Petraeus said, against drawing down the 30,000 additional US troops that have made up the surge too quickly. “We know that the surge has to come to an end, there’s no question about that. I think everyone understands that by about a year or so from now we’ve got to be a good bit smaller than we are right now.

“The question is how do you do that . . . so that you can retain the gains we have fought so hard to achieve and keep going. We are not at all satisfied where we are right now. We have made some progress but again there’s still a lot of hard work to be done against the different extremist elements that threaten the new Iraq.”

General Petraeus, who wrote the US Army’s book on counterinsurgency, said he and his staff were “trying to do the battlefield geometry right now” as he prepared his troop-level recommendations. In his report he is expected to highlight the involvement of Sunnis in Anbar province in the battle against foreign al-Qaeda fighters when he delivers his progress report to Congress. “You have to pinch yourself a little to make sure that is real because that is a very significant development in this kind of operation in counter-insurgency,” he said. “It’s all about the local people. When the local people are on the side of the new Iraq instead of on the side of the insurgents or even al-Qaida, that’s a very significant change.”

General Petraeus made his comments to a small group of reporters in Baghdad. They appear to signal that he will ask for more time for the surge strategy, probably into next year. But they also reflect the military reality on the ground. Most of the surge troops will have come to the end of their 15- month tours by the spring and the US does not have the troops to sustain the strategy for a prolonged period.

President Bush has said that he will follow the advice of General Petraeus, who must deliver his report to Congress by September 15.

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