Michael Smith and Sarah Baxter in Washington
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WHEN the British went into Iraq they were believed to have more expertise in counter-insurgency than their US allies still learning the lessons of humiliation in Vietnam.
But now they are facing their own “Saigon moment” with plans for a withdrawal predicted by some on the British side to be ignominious and by a US military adviser to be ugly and embarrassing.
Not only that, but the British are expected to rely on US troops for cover to protect their convoys. Some officers are expressing concern about the way their campaign is ending.
Next month the British will pull back from their last base in the city of Basra at Saddam’s old summer palace. What the Ministry of Defence is keen to avoid is a photograph of the last helicopter taking off from the palace. The image would be too close to that of the last helicopter taking off from the American embassy in Saigon in April 1975, an enduring symbol of US defeat.
The troops on the British helicopters will not be leaving Iraq. They will be pulling back to their base at the airport outside the city to await the final order to withdraw.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, chief of defence staff, has denied US claims that the British have been defeated in southern Iraq, saying that their mission was to put the Ira-qis back in control and that they will soon achieve it. But British soldiers fear that withdrawal will look like defeat, and the way in which it is taking place will make them more vulnerable, resulting in higher casualties.
They are already under relentless rocket fire from the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army. An average of 40 attacks a week are hitting the airport base. The final withdrawal could take another six months, yet intelligence reports suggest that Shi’ite militia attacks will only rise over that period.
The death toll this year is already 41. It is set to exceed that of any previous year. The number of wounded already does so with 55 seriously or very seriously wounded by the end of last month. “History has shown that you cannot pull out in a measured manner,” one British officer said. “It is usually all or nothing. Aden was a classic example of what happens if you hang around.”
Casualty figures in 1964, the first year of the insurgency in Aden, the former British colony on the Arabian peninsula, were just two. But there were 44 casualties as the British prepared to leave in 1967, giving the impression of a defeat.
It is the final British withdrawal from Basra airport that is the cause of most concern, with military commanders expecting to lose between 10 and 15 men. Most of the troops will be flown out by Tristar, with some equipment being airlifted out in C-130 Hercules and C-17 Globemaster aircraft.
But the bulk of the heavy equipment and vehicles will have to go by road, either to Kuwait or to the southern port of Umm Qasr where it could be loaded onto ferries.
“Britain won’t be able to pull all its troops out through the airport, which is why they will have to fight their way out,” said Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow of the US Council on Foreign Relations, who has advised President George W Bush.
The coalition’s overwhelming superiority in firepower, particularly from the air, will ensure that there is virtually no chance of massed attack. The RAF will fly Tornados to provide air cover and the US Navy will be able to provide Super Hornet aircraft from its carriers in the Gulf. Special forces will patrol the areas on either side of the convoys, dealing with any attempted ambushes.
The US is also expected to send thousands of troops to provide a protective cordon north of the Kuwaiti border.
But the militias can be expected to use the same insurgency tactics that have inflicted serious casualties on the coalition across Iraq, trying to harass the British troops in small numbers.
They are incapable of inflicting a real defeat: their attacks will be “theatre” aimed at creating the appearance of one. “They probably won’t fight in the open but in built-up areas along the road,” Biddle said.
British commanders are concerned that the Americans will add to that impression by sending in troops themselves. Biddle suggests they might need as many as two brigades in Basra, about 7,000 men.
“It’s quite clear the British didn’t have enough troops to stabilise the area,” he said. “The south is in badly declining shape and poses some serious dilemmas for the theatre command in Baghdad.”
One US Army officer said: “We could not afford to see southern Iraq overrun by insurgents which would threaten any future use of our main supply route from Kuwait.”
British officers believe that the potential difficulties posed by withdrawal are being “overhyped” by US counterparts. They believe the Americans were irritated by previous British suggestions that the US did not understand counter-insurgency tactics.
“I accept we haven’t done the best job possible in southern Iraq but that is largely the result of underresourcing,” one British officer said. “I cannot see how the Americans could do any better . . . Basra is a hell-hole because we do not have enough troops there to control the city. We have been left to hold the flag while politicians enjoy their holidays and wait for Bush to make a decision.”
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I am glad the UK is pulling out of a stupid war that the British public did not agree with in the first place.. In my own opinion this is an oil war and nothing else. As soon as saddam changed the oil currancy into euros he suddenly had weapons of mass destruction, and how quickly the US went in and changed it back to dollars...Brown i hope will not crawl up bush`s backside like the gutless tony blair..
Amanda, London,
My point of view is that the solution will be found by the US by opening a second front in Iran in a more conventionnal war .This is the way to slow down the pressure of the Iranian help to Mahdi Army and find a secure way for uk troops to get out that stupid war !
The allies need a new tactic in their strategy . The civil war is the hardest to win.
Now , that's the time of consequencies !
There is also oil in Iran ! Maybe easier to keep than in Irak .
PROSPECTIVISTE, LE VESINET, FRANCE
In this world everybody walks on his own upstairs to his own destiny.
Britain participated the destiny of USA...and at the result,,, Britains would live their destiny....What a pitty....
Scorpion40, Istanbul, Turkey
Frankly I'm glad the British are pulling out. Britain has fought courageously and is pragmatic about its prospects, and I hope that British soldiers all get home safely. Anyone in the US who thinks that it's just going to take a "surge" to create political breathing room and bring peace to Iraq is guilty of magical thinking. The US will have to pull out someday too, and if the Iraqis can't stop fighting each other now they never will. Maybe Southern Iraq will become more peaceful, as the militias are forced to govern rather than fight. And if it becomes more violent, I don't think it will be accurate to blame the coalition any more.
Mike, Pittsburgh,
I was in Basra (2005). The British forces were content to patrol in their soft-caps and no armor, pretending that they had the situation well in hand. All the while, the Shia militias were biding their time, amassing arms and manpower (with help from the Iranians). British police trainers advised the local police whose ranks were overrun with Mahdi Army and Badr Brigade members. I know of one incident where the British Army failed to follow-up on a solid information regarding a huge weapons cache. They claimed that arms interdiction was not their primary mission?! (To be fair, the US would not make any inquiry either, saying that they weren't going to "mess around" in the British AOR.)
I truly appreciate the service of the British troops in Iraq, and still consider them our closest ally. But the decisions made by the British political and military leadership were a recipe for a slow-motion disaster. They shouldn't have committed troops unless they planned to see it through!
Jack M., Fairfax, Virginia, USA
Don't worry everyone, if the worst comes to the worst Brown will blame it all on Blair.
its going to be quite interesting to see just how he does it, I mean he cannt actually SAY, "its all Blairs fault" ... but without doubt that will be the impression he will skillfully try to create.
Also he has studiously not changed the defence secretary to in extremis he can always sack him.
I presume our American cousins have by now been able to translate Browns carefully crafted words in the recent Bush summit to read, " I dislike the Republican party, i had nothing to do with Iraq, i have no sympathy for our Army/ Armed forces - they waste loads of money, which could be better spent propping up the Labour vote, or the people of iraq and i plan to run out on you at the earliest opportunity"
Trevor Holcroft, Oxford, UK
Sir,
We jumped into join a war without a real purpose for us.
The US based Likudniks are still piping the existential tune of a jingoistic, paranoid armed ghetto. Will we fall for it again?
The brave men and women of the British Armed Forces are not meant to be sandbags for other countries. Let the US dole out weapons to their favoured allies & let them fight their own battles.
SC, London, United Kingdom
The only way to defeat the west is to drive a wedge between the english speaking peoples. Together we have never been defeated, when we fight alone and dont stand united we allow lesser nations to control the outcome. Iran took your sailors as propodanda to lessen the British will to fight. Our own leftists cry defeat every day so that they can assume power. Lord how I miss the days of Reagan and Thatcher. For 50 years the US, Canada and the U.K. stood side by side in Germany facing down the greatest threat in world history. An earlier poster asked if Americans are "grateful". I will say that I have served with British soldiers and always felt that we were brothers fighting for the same cause. I spent time in Greenland training with the Canadian Air Force at Thule and felt the same way. In the end we will realize that we must stand together or we will fall seperately. History teaches that we are connected by Democracy, language and common beliefs. If we allow that to fail us we fall.
Don, Kirkuk,
Our problem in Southern Iraq is not that we can't establish democracy. It is that the democratic choice of most Iraqis there is a Shiite dictatorship on the lines of Iran. That's the trouble with democracy: you can ask people to vote but you can't tell them who to vote for.
We British have not failed in Basra. It is just that what the Basrans want and what we (and the Americans) would prefer are not the same thing. The most likely outcome of this war will be the partitioning of Iraq. Basra will become a protectorate of Iran, Northern Iraq (if it is not invaded by Turkey) will become 'the Republic of Kurdistan' and the central area will become a rump state: a sort of Middle Eastern Serbia without the rest of former Yugoslavia.
This will be Bush's legacy and it is absurd for America's generals to blame it on the British. In the end you cannot tell the tide to go back. You either retreat or you get your feet wet.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge, England
Why are Americans waiting on the sidelines with what seems baited breath hoping almost that the Brits will suffer an ignominious defeat. Will it make you feel better about your own war effort, if so we ought to remember we are allies and should support one another through the worst troubles. Remember this, the USA have to plan their withdrawal yet. Would you thank us for gloating over a potentially perceived failure by the USA?
Mike, Derby, UK
Lions lead by morons. Plus ça change........
Victor M., Malaga, Spain
its not the time to be leaving, not yet, progress is just being made, it will be so counterproductive and for what end?
thom pain, boston, Mass. USA
i wouldn`t say it is a defeat rather mission accomplished. the time has come for the iraqies to fend for themselves. it would create a civil war but who cares that is what they choose.
auzy, kl,
Oh dear. So you cant win a war by wearing berets and giving out sweeties.
But the liberals told us you could.
They wouldnt have lied would they?
Geoff M, Josselin, France
Blair and Bush did not listen to the middle east experts who warned Iraqis would fight amongst themselves because they thought they knew better. Soldeirs now pay the price.
Steve Byrne, Christchurch, UK
As The Times reported earlier this year - the second most popular baby boys name in the UK is Mohammed. It's predicted to become the most popular name by next year. Will Britain's Armed Forces really be expected to impose "Western-style democracy" on Muslim countries ... when based on the demographics Britain is becoming a Muslim nation ?
Robert, Luton,
The American version of peace keeping involves flying jet aircraft at 30,000 feet and blowing up civilians.
Lee , Wednesbury,
Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon. The old order changes. But not for recalcitrants that continue to use Imperial measurement and colonial place names (example, Burma rather than Myanmar). Come on Telegraph, flash to the new reality. Saigon moment: More like Custerâs last stand.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Nagano
The person who placed Britain in this mess, the ex Labour Prime Minister Blair has merrily run away to seek further lucrative fields to conquer. Noticeably without a care for the suffering inflicted upon the grieving families of men and women who have given their lives unjustly in Iraq. For those troops remaining the eventually retreat seems also highly perilous.
Jack, Newtown, UK
The great lion of Europe must never be chased out the way the Americans were from South Vietnam. England must let the Shiites in the South know that if they are intimidated during their withdrawal from Iraq, the Shiites will pay a price that they never like to think about, . The British soldiers are much more disiphlined then the American ones, and are better fighter at that.
Saigon with not be repeated at Basra, so do not worry too much about the Mahdi army or other gangs roaming Iraq these days all thanks to the White House and the State of Israel which controls the White House.
Will Saigon be repeated again when the American troops retreat from Iraq and in what form or matter, that is the question to be asked.
I have great faith in the British military commanders and their foresight in making sure that the British troops will have an orderly withdrawal from Iraq, that is also in the best interest of Iran, and not the other way around.
vespasianus, Paramus n.j, United States
Whatever the truth on the ground, the Iraqis will want to give the impression that they have kicked the British out of Southern Iraq. This is entirely consistent with claims by Hamas and Hezbollah that they kicked the Israelis out of Gaza and lebanon respectively - even though the Isrealis did a phased, planned withdrawal in both cases. It all has to do with Arab macho posturing and self-delusion than military reality on the ground. The british simply have to leave with dignity and honour at a time and place of their choosing - the Iraqi groups will spin it how they like anyway. Remember - Saddam and the Iraqis were convinced that they won the first Gulf War! If they had been sensible and not deluded themselves, the situation would not have led to the second.
Humphrey Fanning, Marlborough, UK
Get out while you can, to hell with the rest, this place is not worth one more dead. This was all about profit, the blood of our youth, paid the price.
Don in Dallas, Dallas, USA/Texas
now is not the time to leave. we are all just hopefully seeing a sea change. the uks' leaving is ill timed & unneccessary you just had an election you could leave a good amount of troops for a year more then if its not changed , thanks and wish you well, now it seems to push the whole mess over the edge in giving up the whole south. am i missing something about supply routes etc.? we need you now more than ever. America much appreciates fr all your sacrifice, your lost servicepeople and help but we need you to carry on a bit longer!
thom pain, boston, Mass. USA
You've put the problem incorrectly. It's not a question of more experience with counter-insurgency, for British forces do indeed have that. What we see in Iraq is at least two huge forces at work, neither of which is accurately called "insurgencies." One is a large part of the population that wants foreigners out, that is angry at occupation and at humiliation and at America's brutual tactics and inepitude at even getting the water or electricity running. The other represents opposing sides in a potential civil war, the quite likely future break-up of the country into at least three mini-states. There is no center to hold. America's pointless, illegal, and ill-considered invasion has created a Frankenstein monster.
JOHN CHUCKMAN, Toronto, Canada
David of London...thanks mate for your comments. Hopefully the MoD and its leadership will realise that our Forces have been so reduced that we're struggling to commit. British Forces.(tell you what those words send a shiver down my spine) are still the finest in the world . We love to help out our American cousins..makes us proud to do so..Just wonder though whether they are grateful.
kirk, Rotherham, UK
Well, the withdrawal might be ugly and embarrassing but in the end the troops will see again England Green. Just as the Americans actually left Vietnam. Embarrassed but alive and in one piece...
It's going to be very ugly and more than deadly embarrassing for the chaps who won't be able to extricate from Iraq: ie the iraqis who worked for the coalition (whatever their motives) or didn't fight it.
And make no mistake: they will be handed to the "victors" by the withdrawing powers, simply as a token and a deal. Why? Because any future Iraqi government will have to prove his legitimacy. Such legitimacy shall need the suppression of necessary traitors.
Every colonial war ended the same way. And Iraq is but an "ugly and embarrassing" colonial adventure.
Ronnie, PARIS, FRANCE
British troop withdrawal will give yet another clear message to the Islamists that the west cannot fight a sustained war against a growing global terrorist threat. The jihadists will see this as a another victory over the infidel crusaders ... and the west will continue down the path of apologetic, strategy-less acquiescence.
When will the west realize that a cohesive policy against the Islamist ideology is the only long-term solution to this problem.
Mark Chad, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
I'm sorry, but if losing "10 to 15 men" is considered a major military defeat, then perhaps you ought to simply disband your military altogether... But then again, you couldn't even perform so-called peace-keeping operations in your own backyard in Bosnia, now could you?...
Paul Kelley, Columbia, SC, USA
Whatever laudable objectives were in mind in the invasion of Iraq, they were lost in the first few months.
The present "elected" government is totally powerless and it is self evident that although vast numbers of Iraqis voted for the first time in reasonably independent elections they voted on sectarian lines, and since then far to many have supported the sectarian militias
There is absolutely no prospect of a stable government being established any time in the foreseeable future. The presence of our troops is only serving to provide a ready target for all and sundry. Bring them home now,
K Wells, Bognor Regis, , UK
I can do no more than thoroughly agree with Kirk of Rotherham.
Gutless politicians screw up and then force an under resourced Army to try to cover their blushes.
Withdraw now, before another British soldier is killed trying to right the wrongs perpetrated by ignorant politicians (on BOTH sides of the political spectrum).
(presently from Antalya)
David Michael, London, UK
Mike Wilkes of Brisbane. Surely you have grasped the fact the 'Middle East' (apart from Israel) doesn't understand democracy (imperfect as it is) as we do. Maybe one day.......but not in our lifetimes matey. Get a grip man, the West is protecting its oil interests- Iran is next, note the biggest fleet in history gathering in the Gulf as we speak. Invent something to replace oil and all the problems will all disappear overnight but you will have to fight Shell and Exxon et el first.
Victor M., Malaga, Spain
How will New Labour and New Gordon Brown spin this defeat into a magnificent victory?
Phillip, Burnley, Lancashire
If the point of the criminal invasion and brutal occupation was to "put the Iraqis back in control" then it could have been achieved without doing anything. If the point was to put the US puppet "Iraqi" regime in control then it has failed.
Richard Cheeseman, Wellington, New Zealand
Well done Mr Blair. Well done Labour. You must all be very proud of yourselves.
David Masu, Zürich,
This retreat or withdrawal is the most pragmatic option available. The Iranians have won their trophy, Basra, as well as the entire southern Iraq. Their next step would be to prepare for the future conflict with the Arabs. The British military should not have followed Rumsfeld into the debacle called Iraq. The US military will follow the British out of Iraq. The only regret is the wasted British and American lives. Let the Arabs and the Persians now have their fight.
Niwa Sofola, Atlanta, GA. USA
What rot! Rightly or wrongly the coalition invaded Iraq in order to establish a democratic, prosperous, peaceful and popular society. Every time one of the allied armies leaves before those goals are achieved it is a significant defeat for the democratic cause. If the second biggest allied army (and the self-proclaimed insurgency expert) leaves unsuccessful and under enemy fire, like Elphinstone from Kabul or Westmoreland from Saigon, that will be a calamitous, history making defeat. It will still have repercussions fifty years from now and our grand-children will still be picking up the pieces, no matter what spin the politicians and political generals put on it.
Mike Wilkes, Brisbane, Australia
Quite agree with the last statement..If the Americans cannot control Baghdad with 160,000 troops..what little chance of UK forces controlling Basra with 8,000. Bush is trying to save his embarrasment...UK forces are after saving lives. Why oh why were UK forces allowed to dwindle?....As usual gutless politicians are at fault. Wish we had a Thatcher to lead us into war. All coalition forces should now withdraw. Democracy is alien to the middle east. Once we have left a power vaccuum will be created and one man..another Saddam..will take over. Then peace will once again reign through a strong fist. It's all they know.
kirk, Rotherham, UK