William Shawcross
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Not everybody would regard it as a badge of honour to be cited favourably by President Bush in a speech about Iraq, but it happened to me last week when Bush warned that the consequences of leaving Iraq precipitously could be a bloodbath even worse than happened in Indochina after the American defeat in 1975. Alas, I think he is right.
Iraq has certainly not gone the way that I and other supporters of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein had hoped. Some British commentators argue for abandoning Iraq: the consequences, I believe, would be infinitely more horrible than the horrors we see today.
The suggestion ignores the fact that for Islamic extremists, and especially Al-Qaeda, the war to subjugate the West is indivisible. Osama Bin Laden has said that Iraq is the front line. An Al-Qaeda victory in Iraq will strengthen the movement everywhere.
In Bush’s long and rather literary speech – he also referred to Graham Greene’s famous novel, The Quiet American, which scorned America’s efforts in Vietnam – he said: “Recently, two men who were on the opposite sides of the debate over the Vietnam war came together to write an article. One was a member of President Nixon’s foreign policy team, and the other was a fierce critic of the Nixon administration’s policies. Together they wrote that the consequences of an American defeat in Iraq would be disastrous.
“Here’s what they said, ‘Defeat would produce an explosion of eupho-ria among all the forces of Islamist extremism, throwing the entire Middle East into even greater upheaval. The likely human and strategic costs are appalling to contemplate.’ I believe these men are right.”
The two men he was referring to were Peter Rodman, a former aide to Henry Kissinger and more recently assistant secretary of defence in the Bush administration, and me.
When I covered the wars in Indochina for The Sunday Times, I was opposed to the US effort. After the communists won, appalling stories of brutality began to emerge. Thousands and eventually millions of people fled the cruelty of the Vietnamese communist victors, mostly as “boat people”. In Cambodia the Khmer Rouge communist victors were far more brutal and up to 2m Cambodians were murdered or died.
After talking to Cambodian refugees on the Thai-Cambodian border, conducting scores of interviews in America and obtaining thousands of pages of official documents under the blessed US Freedom of Information Act, I wrote a book called Sideshow: Kissinger, Nixon and the Destruction of Cambodia, which was extremely critical of the Nixon White House’s policies towards Cambodia. It argued that American carelessness from 1970-75 helped destroy the country and enabled the monstrous Khmer Rouge to come to power.
Kissinger had declined my requests for an interview before publication but afterwards his aide, Peter Rodman, published, in The American Spectator, a long, detailed and excoriating attack on me and my research. I replied, Rodman counter-attacked and so on – it was interesting and I included the whole exchange in subsequent editions of the book.
Almost 25 years later, after the overthrow of Saddam, which I supported, I finally met Rodman for the first time and I am glad to say we have become friends. Earlier this year we wrote the article that caught Bush’s attention.
Today, as in the 1970s, the press has a special responsibility. In Indochina the majority of American and European journalists (including myself) believed the war could not or should not be won. At the end one New York Times headline read: “Indochina without Americans: for most, a better life”.
Such naivety was horribly wrong, and I have always thought that those of us who opposed the American war in Indochina should be extremely humble in the face of the appalling aftermath. Similarly today I think that too many pundits’ hatred (and it really is that) of Bush (and till recently Blair) dominates perceptions.
Many armchair editorialists seem to dwell more on the American abuses at Abu Ghraib (quickly stopped and punished) than on the horrific, deliberate mass murders committed by the terrorists, both Sunni and Shi’ite. Far too many Muslims have died in Iraq, and the vast majority have not been killed by American or British soldiers. They have been killed by other Muslims.
Above all, we do not pay adequate attention to the millions of Iraqis who (like Vietnamese, Cambodians and Lao 35 years ago) put their faith in the West. The fear of Iraqi interpreters to the British Army being abandoned in Basra is only the tip of the iceberg.
Yet many British commentators and politicians are now suggesting we should abandon Iraq and fight only in Afghanistan. Ironically, this debate is happening when, for the first time, America is making real progress against Al-Qaeda in its strongholds in the northwest of the country and Baghdad. Under one of America’s best generals, David Petraeus, Bush has committed some 30,000 more American troops into these areas and driven Al-Qaeda out.
Local insurgents have been revolted by Al-Qaeda atrocities – decapitating babies, slicing off people’s faces with piano wire, using chlorine gas tankers and vast car bombs as weapons of mass destruction to kill as many innocents as possible – and have rallied to the government. Confidence is beginning to return: even Fal-luja, a hell of torture chambers and Islamist violence until US marines drove Al-Qaeda out, now has a growing chamber of commerce.
Next month Petraeus has to testify on successes and failures in Iraq to Congress, where both Republicans and Democrats are increasingly sceptical if not downright hostile to the president’s policies. He can justifiably praise the courage, commitment and successes of his soldiers. But alas their progress has not been matched by reconciliation and progress between the Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish members of the Iraqi government. That is where the real threat to Iraq now lies.
The consequences of an American defeat in Iraq are likely to be even worse than in Indochina. As Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Al-Qaeda leader in Iraq, said before he was fortunately killed by a US airstrike: “The shedding of Muslim blood is allowed in order to disrupt the greater evil of disrupting jihad.” Islamist revenge on all those Muslims who have tried to build a better Iraq will be terrible.
Why do the horrors inflicted by Islamic extremists in Darfur seem to appal us, more than those in Iraq? Because, I suppose, in an orgy of self-deluding hypocrisy, we prefer to blame the United States. We should grow up.
The horror of Darfur will pale beside the bloodbath in Iraq if we withdraw before we have done everything possible to enable Iraqi security forces to defend their country against sectarian horrors. I hope Gordon Brown and his advisers realise the impression that we are seeking to leave will guarantee defeat. In global jihad, perception is a more important weapon of war than ever before.
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America's defeat in Vietnam can be laid at the feet of the Democratic Party--that's right, the party of "compassion". They had none for the Vietnamese then, nor do they have any for Iraqis now. The acquisition and retention of power is their only concern. God help us all if B. Hussein Obama wins.
Jan, Kaufman, Texas, USA
Has there been a 'horror show' in the southern provinces since the UK has reduced/removed its presence?
It is maddening to hear those who support the war's fuzzy logic. When things were going to hell, we were told we needed to stay longer to provide a 'window of opportunity' to the domestic politicians. Fair enough. Now that we are told that things are going better, we are told we still have to stay longer. McCain even says he's fine if we stay for 100 years if necessary!
We were initially told that permanant US bases in Iraq were not even being considered. Yet, here we are with permanant US bases being constructed in Iraq.
It was a mistake to invade Iraq, and we are only prolonging the mistake by staying longer. Iraqi's: 'you've got a Republic, if you can keep it.'
Peace be with you.
Chris, Alpharetta, GA
The one factor overlooked by the many comments is unlike Indochina the enemy we are fighting both in Afghanistan and Iraq WILL come and follow us home,as shown in an article in TIME magazine in 2004. And here is the problem-what is Plan B? All the nay saying "I told you so" arguments seem to be full of bile against the Bush Administration-but little of substance otherwise.
Remember the Clinton administration took TWO years to nominate the lead agency against Bin Laden after the Embassy bombings-in the meantime the Sudan,Somalia,Yemen,Chad and the rest of the Middle East burned.
So I am looking forward with bated breath to see how the "critics" are going to get us out of this "mess"-we might be getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan,but are we prepared to fight them on the streets of Europe and the US?
Remember we can always hand over half of Spain a la Sudetenland circa 1938...
Keith Thomas, E Sussex,
Comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam are always going to be tenuous and largely irrelevant. Far from being a 20th century war, the Vietnamese conflict can be traced back to the 1860s when colonialist France under Napoleon III decided that his country should not be left behind Britain and other European states in acquiring colonies in the Far East. As a result, a conflict that largely went on for over a 100 years imposed an alien culture on the indigenous people for commercial gain and imperial prestige.
In contrast, Iraq was a pariah state which under Saddam was yet another source of weaponry and funding for arab and palestinian terrorists engaged in their campaigns to drive the Israelis back into the sea. Saddam's sponsorship of suicide bombers' families to the tune of US$25,000 every time they blew themselves and nearby Israelis to smithereens was enough justification for his removal by force. Sadly, the efforts to contain him were being undermined by France's trading ambitions.
Ali D, St Helier, Jersey
Is there any concrete judgement on the folly adventure more than that withdrawal now seems disasterous
Also what happened in the last 4 years was no less destructive and criminal than what happened in Veitnam
America should acknowledge the truth it is long trying to avoid and let the international community represented in the UN come foreward for real help. The longer the murderous forses of Bush stay , the more Iraqies will pay with their lives
G Bush and T Blair should be tried as war criminals _ no less
Mohamed Ahmed, London, UK
I feel there are many aspects of the big question that are deliberately forgotten whenever a decision has to be made about it in american congress.
The big question is why and how should U.S.A get involved in a conflict at the first place and what is the objective and does U.S give enough material and intelligence to achieve the mission in a reasonable time.
Once engaged, the big question for U.S congress is exaclty the same and yet is completly opposite: "Why should U.S.A leave a conquered country and what would be the consequence of leaving before losses get through the roof!"
U.S.A is a huge machine of industry and army defining itself as a peacekeeper police force throughout the world, faster and more efficient than U.N. forces to get involved anywhere but unable to pursue its objectives because it's moving (in or out) before thinking about consequences.
It worked well in 2nd world war because there was a defined side of enemies and a defined side of allies...now who knows!
Philippe Le Tiec, St andrews Guernsey, C.I.
Yes, America stay on in Iraq and fix the place. Problem is that this administration has been proven to be wholly incompetent to do the job. The president and his team should simply do the honorable thing and resign. Bring in someone who can really gather world support to help fix Iraq.
In parliamentary democracy Bush would have resigned a long time ago and someone from his party would have taken his place.
rajendra, Santa Cruz, Bolivia
I think the hitorian and Mr Bush trying to change the history of Veitnam. because what American did in Veitnam killing inocent people they saying that people were killed after American left Veitnam that is not right. Now more than 1000000 people been killed in Iraq in future historian going say those people were kiilled after American left Iraq. Powerful people or nations always
mess up things for others to sortout after.
Ian, Manchester, UK
So, William Shawcross, having first supported the unjustified, unnecessary and disastrous invasion of Iraq, now wants us to stay there because if we don't things will get worse. It's not that Shawcross is wrong: the consequences may indeed be as bad or worse than what happened in Indochina. Or they might not be, and given that his original analysis was wholly wrong, why should we listen to him now?
As Bruce Sharp put it back in April: 'Does a surge stand any realistic chance of making a difference? Do we believe our enemies to be idiots? They are brutal, despicable thugs... but are they fools? A temporary surge in troop strength can be rendered irrelevant if the enemy adopts a strategy that can be summarized in a mere five words: Lay low for a while.'
Bush's "surge" strategy is nothing but more of the same. Blind hope and blind faith: this is all we are offered. What good is remembering 1975 if you ignore the lessons of the previous 30 years?
Jon Latimer, Ferryside, Carmarthenshire
Stay in Iraq? This ain't the WW2 we're fighting, against a truly visible foe(s)! This is a manufactured war thought up by Neo-Cons in the White House who have manipulated a dumb, fundamentalist zealot, fired with retribution after 9/11 and with oil revenue for their oil business buddies at the back of their minds.
The real war was not in Iraq. There was no need to invade. Alas, it may well be now a hotbed of fundamentalism, due to a needless and botched intervention; thanks to the USA and good ol' Mr Blair, the flim-flam man of Downing Street. Why should we compound the error and waste more lives by staying?
Peter K Day, Doncaster, UK/ Yorkshire
America destroyed Vietnam with its chemical warfare and a hundred thousand massacres. Long after the war, U.S. continued to choke Vietnam through enforced economic isolation. We even threatened to punish India when India not long ago wanted to give a hundred water buffalo to Vietnam. Remember, we killed their water buffaloes., which take the place of tractors. American effort at causing suffering in Vietnam has been relentless, to prevent Vietnam from becoming an inspiration of resistance to invaders.
But U.S. lost the war in Vietnam anyway, and it will lose the war in Iraq. God is great.
Sabina Giordana, Chattanooga, TN
Of course, Vietnam is "orderly!" It's a Communist police state!
And they didn't defeat the U.S. --we left because we'd lost the poliitical will to fight and win that war.
Are you willing to have Islamist thugs like al-Sadr say that they defeated the British and that's why you left Iraq?
Staying in Iraq is defending Britain's national interest: better to fight the jihadis on the streets of Basra than those of Birmingham, don't you think?
Jennie Taliaferro, Dallas, TX/USA
"the Soviet Union destroyed communism all by itself"
Yes, indeed, just POOF into thin air, there was never any doubt...
Paul Kelley, Columbia, SC, USA
And what about the case of the prosecution against the Viet Minh? I mean before we were involved except as an ally of the French? WE justified our intervention because of their akready well-known methods . From the earliest days of that organization, it always employed Leninist methods against its opponents: French or Vietnamese. Fanaticism is indemnic to Leninism. What are regarded as abuses by our system, no matter how widely applied, is SOB to its adherents. I suppose that if the Viet Minh had taken over in 1955. Vietnam would be better off today. But for the same reason that Russia and China and Vietnam are better off today. Stalin, Mao, and Ho are in their graves and most of their acolytes with them.
John Schuh, Lake Dallas, USA
In both the cases of Vietnam and Iraq, in regards the horrible humanitarian consequences, the basic fact is that neither would ever have had to occur if the Americans had not initiated the bloodstorm with lies, self-delusion, and slogan based fantasies. For example, it is so wrong to see the Cambodian genocide of the Khmer Rouge as a result of our leaving Vietnam, because they never would have been able to sieze power absent our massive bombing and the "incursion" of 1970, which fatally undercut the Royal Cambodian government that sought so assiduously to stay neutral. And then of course, the Vietnamese were the ones that finally invaded Cambodia to end their rule. Not to forget that.
Tarquinis, Seattle, USA
Speaking of those who were killed after Vietnam fell, Steve says "The lesson from Vietnam is that a generation of blood does little but fertilize the soil."
I wonder if Steve has a family. Steve - how would you feel if someone fertilized your yard with the blood of your loved ones? Ought we not to care what happenned to millions when America betrayed them?
John says "Defeat of the Americans had no long term negative results" - Tell that to the women raped by pirates as they fled on a rickety boat. Tell that to families that lost their father or mother in a "re-education" camp. 5% of the populace fled the country.
John says "Sorry, a Western pull out from Iraq WILL lead to deaths, but that is NOT our problem"
Such callouse disregard for the sufferring of other people, people we have an obligation to defend and assist! I thought those on the left were supposed to defend the defenseless! It has been said that leftists love humanity, but do not care for people. How true!
KSM, Williamsburg, USA
Bush may be partly right! After withdrawal of Occidental forces from Vietnam there was a bloodbath, although not as bloody as predicted. During the thirty year effort to retain the Euro-american empire after wwII there was also a blood bath.It seems likely that had France not returned to French Indo China and the US not rushed to fill their shoes after Bien Diem Phu that both blood baths would have been avoided. While it is important to learn the lesson of history it is important to learn the right one. That there will be blood letting and mass immigration from Iraq seems certain. It is going on now, the lesson from Vietnam is that a generation of blood does little but fertilize the soil.
Steve, Lyme, USA
Mr. Shawcross seems to ignore the key point in his article about abandoning Iraq. That is if the U.S. had left the impotent Saddam administration alone in the first place then we wouldn't have the present dilemma he talks of. The same goes for the fifties and sixties era of communist hysteria. Note the Soviet Union destroyed communism all by itself without the need for a World War, nukes and millions of deaths. How close were we to that scenario and how long would Mr. Shawcross have been willing to sacrifice millions of American lives for that cause?
Martin, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
The USA should never have gotten involved in Iraq, but having got involved it has a duty to remain until there is a new state to replace the one they overthrew. All that a withdrawl now will show is that the lessons of the past have not been learnt.
Rachel, Chch, NZ
I agree with this story, however: My husband is a contractor in Iraq right now. He has talked with soldiers concerning their view on leaving.
They don't want to, but stated that the way rules of engagement are now, they are just sitting ducks. They feel they can do no good for anyone unless rules of engagement change. They stated that their only role there now is to just get shot at.
Patty Joss, Lake Jackson, TX/USA
Thank you, MR. William Shawcross, for saying a fact even at this time not many Western journalists want to touch: the true outcome of the Communist victory in Cambodia and in Vietnam. With time, the true face of the authoritarian rulers of communist Vietnam has revealed itself. The Vietnam war was indeed a war started by the rulers of North Vietnam, through their cadres who went underground in the South after the signing of the Geneva Accord in 1954 in order to instigate troubles in the Republic of Vietnam. A war that was waged to impose Communism on the whole country, even after the communist block collapsed on its own in Eastern Europe and the USSR. It has never been a "patriotic war of liberation to rid South Vietnam of imperialist US neocolonization" as the communist propaganda broadcast in Vietnam and around the world, then and now. The cost of the war is so staggering, even after the war ended in 1975. Who knows how many died escaping Communist Vietnam or in prisons.
TV Son, Singapore, Singapore
If you want to hear the case for the prosecution, check out the war museums in Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). Look of the evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity. US "advisorsâ asked the questions, Vietnamese torturers did the dirty work. Photographs of bodies exhumed still tied with wire; nails hammered through the knees, elbows and shoulders. The Americans always were the bad guys, Iraq has made it undeniable.
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Kanagawa
Dear Mr. Shawcross,
In the context of Vietnam, it is not enough to say that the consequences of leaving were terrible without also saying what could have been done avoid those consequences. This is particularly true if you also accept that a Northern victory was inevitable. What could the United States have done in 1975, which would have prevented either a Northern victory or the resulting horrors?
Similarly, what is your proposal for achieving a situation in Iraq in which an American withdrawal would not result in a civil war and the mass slaughter of innocents, which is sure to be followed by the subjugation (under particularly inhumane conditions) of any Sunnis who did not or could not flee to safety? It seems to me that arguing in favor of continued American sacrifices is justified if---and only if---there is some reasonable prospect that in a year, two years, five years or ten years it would be possible to withdraw and not have a civil war and terrible massacres follow.
I
Mitch Guthman, Los Angeles, California USA
Many of the replays of Vietnam that pretend to show that things would have been better if the US had stayed assume that the US also would have engaged the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. This assumption seems very strange, given the lack of political will to stay even in Vietnam. The likelihood is that Cambodia still would have had its killing fields, even had the US continued to defend South Vietnam.
What is more certain is that the US intervention in the region led to the rise of the Khmer Rouge. The revisionists want to exculpate the US intervention for what it did cause, while pretending that had it just continued more, it would have undone that.
Russell, Austin, Texas
The best way to dissuade future administrations from this sort of opportunistic adventurism is for the United States to be thoroughly humiliated and discredited, most importantly at home, but also abroad. This will in effect save thousands of lives by forestalling this sort of behavior. It's called "The Vietnam Syndrome", the unwillingness to support agression against those unlucky enough to live in the rest of the world. What we do in the Third World is mostly evil, exploitative and wrong, and our defeat will give our victims some respite. I realize that the United States is too powerful to be thoroughly defeated, but even 20 years of inhibition will save countless lives. Losing wars can be a very good thing for nations; we don't worry about the Germans or Japanese anymore, do we? I know there are good aspects to our foreign policy, but it is mostly tainted by considerations of self-interest, and it does not outweigh, in my opinion, the harm we do. The important thing is to walk that fine line between a defeat that sours America on further agression and a defeat that provokes fantasies of revenge against "stabs in the back" and the like. That is why the current situation is desirable: a slow, grinding descent into futility, untainted by delusions of nobilty in defeat. It's for our own (and the rest of the world's) good, believe me.
Chris, New York City, USA
well, u forgot to mention that had i been a communist vietcong after many years of being hunted and oppressed by US and ARVN forces I would feel t is not a crime to make some of them pay for their betrayal- In all wars where you have a foreign army come in and support a faction over another there is going to be score settling- that should come as no surprise- Besides, appalling crimes are being committed right now in Iraq...
roberto, milano,
i agree with shawcross's articile 100%, we,uk/america, were wrong to get involved in iraq from the start. but now we cannot abandon the peaple of iraq, the consquences would be veitnaim 10 fold . my opinion , leaveing 1raq is a cop-out; learn from our previous conflicts and get our act together on how to deal with this problem, an example is my own country.
Lenny Deans, Waringstown, Northern Ireland
Can we restore our world class reputation only with continued military operations? Is the promulgation of death and violence the only option? Pol Pot would not have won power with out the societal disruptions we caused to the Cambodians. We were flailing against the massive anti-colonial tide of history then. Does anyone really think prolonging our military presence will succeed?
Mack, Silver Spring, USA
I have to say that I agree with the article entirely. I was against the innitial war, but now that we are there it would be immoral for us to just leave the country in turmoil.
It is indeed a horific situation, but we must prove that we have the stomach for a long and costly war. Otherwise we and future generations will have to pay the consiquences.
Andy Hedges, London, England
I have visited Vietnam and I found the country orderly and well run.Defeat of the Americans had no long term negative results.As far as I am concerned the various do-gooding wars in Yugoslavia, and Iraq called wars of choice are completely needless.Failure in Iraq will inevitably follow and hopefully will put an end to unnecessary interventions in the affairs of sovereign states.One thing is to defend our national interests, it is quite another to carry on the preent tragic farce.Sorry, a Western pull out from Iraq WILL lead to deaths, but that is NOT our problem.It will not mean that an Al Qaida attack on the UK or US will not be defeated- so long as we retain the means of protecting ourselves we should stop these foreign interventions.What the US does in not our business, Mr Brown get those British troops out of Iraq before the New Year.Period.
John Walker, London, UK
Local (Sunni) insurgents have rallied to the government! What planet is this guy on?
Falluja was an act of mass punishment in revenge for the killings of four Blackwater mercenaries by the same type of people the Americans are now arming to fight Al Qaeda. One day they will use these same weapons against the government they are supposedly supporting, and American troops who stand in their way.
Leaving Vietnam didn't lead to the domino effect, it saved hundreds of thousands of lives and the Vietnamese army in its turn ended the horror of the Khmer Rouge.
Perhaps Iraq is more akin to Cambodia and one day Iran will ride to it's rescue. All the conditions put in place by the fools who got us into this mess.
Iraq is already a living hell for it's people and Mr Shawcross has played his part in this from his armchair or otherwise.
Martyn Millard, Calvia, Mallorca
Surely, it would have been less costly to have allowed Saddam to continue killing Iraquis instead of having Al Qaeda do it. Might leaving Saddam in place only have delayed the Sunni/Shia interchanges that we see now? Who Knows? Bush faces the problem we all face. We have no context in which to examine the choices. Past great leaders all had decades of immersion in the issues they handled - Churchill and Germany, Reagan and the USSR, Lincoln and slavery, etc. Religious terrorism is an issue to which we are evolving answers as we go, so it is really hard to "get it right" the first crack out of the barrel.
That said, cut-and-run is not likely to be a successful long term national policy - nor is undercutting your leaders, while they are attempting to work out difficult problems.
R. Jones, Nashville, TN