Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor
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Just when the Mahdi Army seemed set to consolidate its dominant position over large areas of Iraq, Moqtadr al-Sadr, the group's fiery leader has ordered his foot-soldiers to stand down.
In a statement read out by Sheikh Hazim al-Araji, one of his senior aides, the young Muslim cleric said that his fighters should suspend operations until February and ordered his political offices closed for three days.
“I direct the Mahdi Army to suspend all its activities for six months until it is restructured in a way that helps honour the principles for which it is formed,” read the statement, which was issued in the Shia Muslim holy city of Najaf.
Although no reason was given for the move, it was seen as an attempt to halt the outbreak of bloody inter-Shia violence which erupted earlier this week in Kerbala.
Reports from the holy city, south of Baghdad, said that 52 were killed and 300 injured in clashes between Mahdi Army gunmen and members of the rival Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC).
Al-Sadr may have been forced to act because of fears that the clashes threatened to spread to other Shia cities across southern Iraq, where offices belonging to the SIIC were set on fire Tuesday night.
The Mahdi Army, which was founded in 2003 as a rag-tag militia loyal to al-Sadr, has since emerged as one of the most powerful forces in Iraq. It boasts thousands of fighters. It is accused of receiving arms, training and funding from Iran. It controls large swathes of Baghdad and is the dominant force in Basra and other Shia cities, where it often controls the local security forces.
With Britain set this week to withdraw the last of its soldiers from the centre of Basra and with the likely drawdown of US forces from Iraq next year, the Mahdi Army should be in a position to become one of the most powerful groups in Iraq.
That may offer a clue into al-Sadr’s unexpected order today. The cleric, who rarely gives interviews but does deliver angry sermons against the US military occupation of Iraq, knows that his ambitions will be wrecked if his loose band of followers are dragged into an inter-Shia war.
Until now Iraq’s majority Shia community has stuck together. Rival groups agreed to stand on one electoral list in the last elections, where they emerged with a comfortable majority.
But even before this week’s fighting in Kerbala there were signs of deep cracks in the Shia ranks with rival militias and leaders vying for power.
Al-Sadr will have to use the next six months to reorganise his force, try to discipline unruly local commanders and turn this chaotic force into a capable organisation.
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I agree, mostly, with Roger's statements about human nature but I'm afraid that creating multiple states will only provide the leaders of post US Iraq with a call to arms to reunite the country. They've got to get consolidated govt or they are doomed to be ruled by a dictator.
Raheim Sherbedgia, Washington, DC
The opinion voiced by Roger echoes my own thoughts on the subject.
The Balkans now has a future for one reason only: the various ethnic groups managed to gain independance inside their own borders after violence erupted, removing ancient tensions between very different cultures that had grown to hate one another over time.
In a similar vein, redrawing the meaningless administrative borders stemming from colonial (British and French) rule after the first World War remains a major priority, not only in the Middle East but in Africa as well.
Only by partitioning Iraq into ethnic units can peace be assured in the future.
This lesson will be hard to swallow by politicians who cling obsessively to the unworkable idea of multiculturalism.
They must repeatedly be reminded of the positive Balkan example.
Endless streams of blood in Iraq seem not to affect them in the least, unfortunately.
Leif Jacobsen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Makes you wonder whether this self proclaimed cleric has been told...'Anymore attacks by your lot on British forces...then YOU will be targetted as well' ..... and not before time.
kirk, Rotherham, UK
Roger is correct, a United Kingdom would never work.
Like the UK, US...
Joe Blane, London, UK
It is inevitable that Shia political and military power will come to dominate the post-saddam iraqi nation. I think in order to limit this and give freedom to the Kurds and Sunni's that a Sunni-Arab state in Western-Iraq should come into being and Kurdistan is already de-facto independant in the North. These three states with their own Prime-ministers could continue on as a confederation or become three separate nations. This is the only solution. Some kind of coalition government of all three running iraq, which President Bush favours will never work, human nature is not like that.
Roger, Weymouth, England