Britain is a great power that must not “run away” from its responsibilities in Iraq, the Iraqi Foreign Minister has told The Times.

Criticising Britain’s recent “lack of engagement” in the southern city of Basra, Hoshyar Zebari has forecast catastrophic consequences if London and Washington decide prematurely to withdraw their troops from Iraq: a bloodbath as the country breaks up, neighbours sucked into a regional conflict, an oil crisis and a new terrorist haven far deadlier than Afghanistan.

“I am worried, absolutely worried,” Mr Zebari said yesterday as British troops prepared to withdraw from central Basra and the US Congress debates whether Iraq – where 3,600 American soldiers have met their end over the past four years – should be written off as a lost cause. “The stakes are very, very high for us as Iraqis, for the US and Britain, and for stability and security in the region.”

Mr Zebari, 54, a Kurd who studied at the University of Essex and has been Foreign Minister since the removal of Saddam Hussein, said that he was relaxed about this week’s expected withdrawal of 600 British troops from the beleaguered Basra Palace to join 5,000 compatriots at their airport base outside the city. That was merely a symbolic move, he said, though he agreed that it could be regarded in the Arab world as a defeat.

Iraq timeline: five years of conflict

From accusations that the weapons of mass destruction dossier had been sexed-up to withdrawal of British troops from Basra

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He expressed concern that it could herald a hasty withdrawal of all British troops from Iraq. That would trigger a “free for all” among the heavily armed militias battling for control of Basra and southern Iraq’s huge oil revenues. Without those revenues Iraq would come to a standstill, Mr Zebari said. “Despite their lack of engagement [the British] are doing a very, very important role not allowing further deterioration,” he said. He criticised Britain’s failure to do more to prepare Basra for its return to Iraqi control. As recently as 2005 the city was a model for the rest of Iraq, he said, but no longer. “I expected that the British should have invested more in building Iraqi capacity, security forces and administration, but for some time they have let it drag without engagement.”

Mr Zebari warned the US and Britain that withdrawing prematurely from Iraq would lead to “real disaster” on a global scale. The country could break into several parts, and without the deterrent of coalition forces “you would really see a bloodbath” as Sunnis, Shias and Kurds fought one another and among themselves. Intervention by Iran would suck neighbouring Sunni Arab countries and Turkey into a regional conflict. Iraq could end up as a haven for al-Qaeda and other terrorist networks “in a far more convenient environment than Afghanistan”. Mr Zebari added: “I don’t think the US or Britain or the international community would like to see oil and terrorism combine forces.”

The minister said that the US and Britain also had a moral responsibility to stay and sort out the mess that they helped to create. “They were instrumental in the war and regime change, which many of us supported, [but thereafter] they didn’t listen to their Iraqi friends – on all issues, on everything.”

General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, will deliver his progress report to Congress on September 11, and Mr Zebari expects the Shia-led Iraqi Government to take a “lot of heat” for failing to do more to promote reconciliation during the US military “surge”. But he insisted his Government knew that it had to improve its performance, and had been working hard in the past fortnight to bring its disgruntled Sunni ministers back on board. On Sunday night its leaders agreed to release thousands of Sunni detainees held without charge, relax restrictions on former Baathists taking senior government jobs and be more inclusive. Mr Zebari said that if the Sunni ministers still refused to rejoin the Government other Sunnis would be invited to take their place.

Mr Zebari also predicted that terrorist groups in Iraq would mount spectacular suicide bombings before General Petraeus delivered his report in an attempt to shake Western resolve. He cautioned against calls of “bring the boys home” in view of the American presidential election and probable British election next year.

“This is the time to stay the course,” Mr Zebari said. Iraq had undergone dramatic changes. Given time it would recover. “A responsible country like Britain, a great power and a member of the UN Security Council, can’t just run away from its responsibilities,” he said. “People need to understand what’s at stake. The [London Underground] bombings should serve as a reminder that terrorism can’t be confined to one country or one region.”

— America and Iran stepped back from confrontation yesterday when US troops released eight Iranians who were detained in Baghdad for carrying firearms without a licence, writes Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor. A day after President Bush vowed that US forces would “confront Tehran’s murderous activities” in Iraq, there were fears that the two sides could become embroiled in a new dispute. But US troops freed the party, that included two diplomats, and said the arrests were a “regrettable incident”.

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