Martin Fletcher in Baghdad
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Britain is a great power that must not “run away” from its responsibilities in Iraq, the Iraqi Foreign Minister has told The Times.
Criticising Britain’s recent “lack of engagement” in the southern city of Basra, Hoshyar Zebari has forecast catastrophic consequences if London and Washington decide prematurely to withdraw their troops from Iraq: a bloodbath as the country breaks up, neighbours sucked into a regional conflict, an oil crisis and a new terrorist haven far deadlier than Afghanistan.
“I am worried, absolutely worried,” Mr Zebari said yesterday as British troops prepared to withdraw from central Basra and the US Congress debates whether Iraq – where 3,600 American soldiers have met their end over the past four years – should be written off as a lost cause. “The stakes are very, very high for us as Iraqis, for the US and Britain, and for stability and security in the region.”
Mr Zebari, 54, a Kurd who studied at the University of Essex and has been Foreign Minister since the removal of Saddam Hussein, said that he was relaxed about this week’s expected withdrawal of 600 British troops from the beleaguered Basra Palace to join 5,000 compatriots at their airport base outside the city. That was merely a symbolic move, he said, though he agreed that it could be regarded in the Arab world as a defeat.
He expressed concern that it could herald a hasty withdrawal of all British troops from Iraq. That would trigger a “free for all” among the heavily armed militias battling for control of Basra and southern Iraq’s huge oil revenues. Without those revenues Iraq would come to a standstill, Mr Zebari said. “Despite their lack of engagement [the British] are doing a very, very important role not allowing further deterioration,” he said. He criticised Britain’s failure to do more to prepare Basra for its return to Iraqi control. As recently as 2005 the city was a model for the rest of Iraq, he said, but no longer. “I expected that the British should have invested more in building Iraqi capacity, security forces and administration, but for some time they have let it drag without engagement.”
Mr Zebari warned the US and Britain that withdrawing prematurely from Iraq would lead to “real disaster” on a global scale. The country could break into several parts, and without the deterrent of coalition forces “you would really see a bloodbath” as Sunnis, Shias and Kurds fought one another and among themselves. Intervention by Iran would suck neighbouring Sunni Arab countries and Turkey into a regional conflict. Iraq could end up as a haven for al-Qaeda and other terrorist networks “in a far more convenient environment than Afghanistan”. Mr Zebari added: “I don’t think the US or Britain or the international community would like to see oil and terrorism combine forces.”
The minister said that the US and Britain also had a moral responsibility to stay and sort out the mess that they helped to create. “They were instrumental in the war and regime change, which many of us supported, [but thereafter] they didn’t listen to their Iraqi friends – on all issues, on everything.”
General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, will deliver his progress report to Congress on September 11, and Mr Zebari expects the Shia-led Iraqi Government to take a “lot of heat” for failing to do more to promote reconciliation during the US military “surge”. But he insisted his Government knew that it had to improve its performance, and had been working hard in the past fortnight to bring its disgruntled Sunni ministers back on board. On Sunday night its leaders agreed to release thousands of Sunni detainees held without charge, relax restrictions on former Baathists taking senior government jobs and be more inclusive. Mr Zebari said that if the Sunni ministers still refused to rejoin the Government other Sunnis would be invited to take their place.
Mr Zebari also predicted that terrorist groups in Iraq would mount spectacular suicide bombings before General Petraeus delivered his report in an attempt to shake Western resolve. He cautioned against calls of “bring the boys home” in view of the American presidential election and probable British election next year.
“This is the time to stay the course,” Mr Zebari said. Iraq had undergone dramatic changes. Given time it would recover. “A responsible country like Britain, a great power and a member of the UN Security Council, can’t just run away from its responsibilities,” he said. “People need to understand what’s at stake. The [London Underground] bombings should serve as a reminder that terrorism can’t be confined to one country or one region.”
— America and Iran stepped back from confrontation yesterday when US troops released eight Iranians who were detained in Baghdad for carrying firearms without a licence, writes Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor. A day after President Bush vowed that US forces would “confront Tehran’s murderous activities” in Iraq, there were fears that the two sides could become embroiled in a new dispute. But US troops freed the party, that included two diplomats, and said the arrests were a “regrettable incident”.
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I suppose there really are US citizens that still believe US government propaganda. âSacrificing their lives to bring safety and stability to Iraq.â Now that must have been hard to write with a straight face. Safety and stability: The US through gross ineptitude has brought mass murder and mayhem to Iraq. Going on one million Iraqis killed, God alone knows how many wounded, four million displaced. Plus massive infrastructural and environmental damage. The Iraq invasion was illegal and unjustified, which makes US action a war crime, which makes the US war criminals. So get into character, because youâre the bad guys now.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Nagano
Sir,
The Iraqi foreign minister says "Iraq could turn in to a safe haven for terrorist organisations"if the British and the Americans leave.This statement begs the fallowing question;Is Iraq not already a safe haven for terrorist organisations like the PKK inthe north and Alqaida plus a few more in the centre and south?
ISIRGAN, Reading, UK
Hostile Muslim tribes were there before Hussein. Then he controlled them. We got rid of him for his humanitarian crimes. Now the Muslim tribes are killing each other again.
There comes a point when we are NOT responsible any longer for inherent, volatile barbarity, and we should withdraw not only strategically but also morally.
Its the Muslim Middle East. Its a different world over there, and its their problem not ours. We tried....the disaster of Iraq is because of inherent problems, not because we tried to intervene and solve them.
Joe, Manchester,
In the first place, without getting complete control in Afghanistan, it was wrong to attack Iraq.
If the US and allies wanted to open another front, then they should have destroyed Saddam's army and other important infrastructure in total. Well, they wanted to fight a war with all sorts of manuals in their backpacks! Such a war is not winnable, especially when the enemy is savage!
In such a case, the only option left for the US and allies is to move to Kurd areas. Kurds have been longtime supporters of the US and allies. Let Shias and Sunnis sort it out. Why bother about century old conflicts?
Looking from the angle of British interests, it is better to withdraw from Basra and move to safer Kurd areas. What Mr. Zebari states may come true. But British leaders' will have to look to British interests instead of the interests for Iraqis! Britain should not extend beyond its limits!
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India
Andrew Milner Get off your high horse. You're a know-it-all, who in fact, knows nothing. US and British Military members are not putting their lives on the line because they don't care about Iraqis. You're just someone sitting in front of a computer spewing you hatred while others are sacrificing their lives to bring safety and stability in Iraq. And YOU think YOU know what others think and whom they care about? Move on, pal
Mary Catherine, Elmhurst, US/IL
Gordan Brown is in an unfortunate position. We had no reason to go into Iraq and Blair made the mistake, he has run from his responsibilities not seeing this mess through.
The arab world will see it as a victory all though to us, soldiers dont feel they are there fighting a war, its counter insurgency gone wrong again. But its more than than to the arab world. A lot more.
the uk has become despondant with its efforts due to training so many of iraqs people to become police, only to be infaltraited by the extremists. No wonder the uk forces and police that are out there feel they are wasting there time.
The underlining issue though is that Blair shouldnt have stepped down until this mess was sorted. Thats if it ever will be.
chris, bridgend, uk
Stay the course, until when? Sadly the US and UK have already established the ill advisability of that, we can't win Iraq's civil war for them. Weak leaders, who can not maintain their positions of power, cannot rely upon foreign troops to keep them in office. It has come to the point that the Iraqi people need to determine what direction they want their country to go, and where there is internal disagreement, they need to find ways to settle their own disputes. Not even financial assistance can save the Iraqis from themselves. Only when the troops withdraw, can the Iraqis themselves step up to the challenges they face among each other. Better sooner than later.
Eric, Las Vegas NV, USA
It was right to go in for Saddam Hussein was a cruel and brutal dictator who aimed at dominating the region, and it is now right for us ( U.S.A., U.K., and others ) to stay with the support of the Iraqi people. However without their support victory is impossible, and it is they who now must prove their desire for civility by relinquishing their fanatical hatreds and self-seeking vendettas. If they are unable to do this no external force can help them. We have shown faith in them. They must now have faith in themselves so that they can win the victory over the violenze of their extremists.
Phili Panter, Mirano, Italy
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, and a US presidential aspirant, has put forward the most feasible plan to date: withdraw all combat and support troops to neighbouring countries and take a diplomatic initiative to sort out the future of Iraq with UK-style devolution to the three main regions. It's too late for any more military surges, American or British. Our troops are now in harm's way with no end in sight. The Iraqi political leaders have let us all down and have forfeit their right to a democratic form of life. Perhaps, at this stage, Islamic theocracy is what the Arab world needs to experience before it eventually, but not inevitably, turns to democracy? After all, China is still communist and Russia is evolving its own version of democracy which may not look like anything in the political dictionary.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
So where is the support from Saudi Arabia for its neighbour at such a difficult time? The Saudis do nothing except sit on their money.
Iqbal, London, Britain
Recognise any of these âThe UK is an occupying force that is cruelly and maliciously subjugating the people of southern Iraqâ. âBritish forces are only there for the oilâ. âThe only violence in Basra is against the evil occupiersâ When Britain leaves get ready for the same people to say âBritain cruelly abandoned its duty, and the poor needy, in Iraqâ. Or even better and I can almost guarantee this one âThe fighting in Basra is been funded secretly by the UKâ. Is no blame going to be placed on the heads of the Iraqi leaders from all factions who had the chance to set up a government free from oppression but instead decided to opt for violence, settling old scores, continuing centuries old sectarianism, and blaming everything on the WEST. Is it always going to take a mass murdering psychopath like Saddam Hussein, who can gas thousands of men, women and children over a period of three days (most were Muslims by the way â just the wrong type), to run Iraq?
Hugh Mackenzie, Aberdeen, UK
Of course, you would expect the Foreign Minstar to say what he is saying -- Britain and US are providing the cover for their sectarian 'winner-take-all' post-Saddam actions. Britain should do what is in her best interest, which is to quit Iraq before it becomes worse, without giving in to a 'sunk cost fallacy.'
N Jiffry, London, London
Iraq, like the former Jugoslavia, was always a theoretical construct of opposing factions held together by a strong dictator. Take away the dictator (Tito, Hussein) and it all falls apart. In the case of Jugoslavia this was allowed to happen. In the case of Iraq the US and the UK trying to hold the place together looks increasingly futile. Letting the country split up between areas governed by the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds is not necessarily a bad thing as long as agreement can be reached on where to draw the lines. That will probably be the end state anyway, so why not facilitate that process and ensure that the transition is orderly rather than trying to hold together an artificial construct that no longer exists other than in old atlases and sclerotic politician's minds?
Nick, Clayton, CA, USA
Apparently it is a tragedy caused by the "superpowers" in this world----it is a game controlled by the only side from the very beginning.Still,I wish the rising ,or say,the recovery of some kind of humanism,morality or just sympathisam.
It's Ok that you teach others what is right,but anyway you will be punished back if times prove you to be wrong.
Stehven Zhang, Shanghai, China
Let all the Iraqi's presently in the UK return to their homeland and bring stability through their new knowledge of how western democratic countries do business. Then our troops can stand down and return for a long awaited rest.
Bugsy, Burley-in-Wharfedale, West Yorkshire
Nick T from Aldershot is right. British Governments made a
decision, Conservatives in 1992 and Labour in 2002 to cut our proud army to what is now too small a size for a medium sized power. With only five mechanised Brigades, 16 Air-Assault Brigade and 3 Commandoe Brigade available to be rotated through Afghanistan and Iraq, we are struggling to field a full sized brigade in each theatre. Basra province can only be defended if the Americans sent a Brigade to work with the British Brigade and the Iraqi forces. The American Army itself although much more powerful than ours is struggling to fight a war on two fronts with 30% of it's forces committed to the frontline. This is a war the Europeans are unwilling to fight. Britain should regain it's independance and strengthen it's Army. But don't hold your breath.
Roger, Weymouth, England
"The fast food" mentality, the "I want it now" mentality of the talking heads coupled with the shortsighted politicians who are only looking for the short term political gain is killing us in Iraq.
We need a leader that can articulate what have to be done, building a country is not like building a hamburger you can not have it in ten minutes or less and the iraqis are not going to stand with us if the believe that we are leaving tomorrow. I think that the British situation is Basra is an indication of what we can expect to see if the US politicians cut and run from Iraq.
EDowns, Los Angeles, USA
Britain has realised the cost of war and simply cannot afford it.
James Bowman, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Well if anyone out there is naive enough to think that "democracy" will magically appear in Iraq provided the Americans and British forces remain long enough then two men in white coats should carry them away. The Arab word for democracy is "tribalism" so why not face up to the obvious, split the place into the three factions and leave the taxpayers of UK and USA to count their loss and get on with life.
gordon gray, auckland, new zealand
The greatest threat to UK forces in Barsa is the threat of
conflict between the US and Iran. The 5,500 would be
subject to attack not only by the Iranian forces a few miles away armed by the Russians and Chinese with state
of the art weapon systems, but the Shia militias and elements of the Iraqi security forces who are 100% Shia in Southern Iraq. Neither China or Russia will allow harsh actions against Iran when the security council meets to discuss
the Iranian nuclear program in September. If the US attacks Iran prior to the withdrawth of UK forces. The bulk of the UK forces will be lost. An early withdrawth is the only alternative.
George Lewis, Brackley Northants, England
yes, Britan and US can't just run away from its responsibilites!
Owen, Beijing, P.R.China
Dear George W. Bush and Tony Blair (and those whom both elected and supported their governments):
You broke it, you bought it!
Rob, Halifax, Canada
The British Forces performance has been spectacular given the failure of British politicians. The problem is Iraq and especially in Basrah is a political problem. Firstly, there has not been sufficient political engagement. Secondly, Basrah is too large a city to be controlled by 5000 or even 7000 troops. It needs a full Division, approaching 17,000 troops. Thirdly, the Army's strategy would work if EFPs, weapons were not smuggled into Iraq, primarily through Maysan province. Maysan too large for a single battlegroup, about 700 men, to effect border security. Finally, there are insufficient UK soldiers, policemen and customs officers to train their Iraqi counterparts so that Iraq can look after itself. Our little Army has worked miracles beyond that which could be expect. We should hang our heads in shame because of our poor politicians - the ones who started this fisasco in the first place.
NickT, Aldershot,
Foreign Minister Zebari pressed the wrong emotional button when he talked of pending bloodbath if British forces were to withdraw from Basra. When were US and UK military forces even slightly concerned over Iraqi casualties? Now if he'd said, "Do you really want to give up on unmetered oil and a new ME base?" That may have struck a chord. Of the clincher, "If you really plan to attack Iran, sandwiching Iran between Iraq and Afghanistan has to be a smart move."
And donât you just shake your head in disbelief at US arrest and subsequent release of Iranian engineers? The best charge they could bring was carrying guns without permission. Iraq is a war zone for goodness sake.
And finally, the US claim than a nuclear Iran will lead to another holocaust. How many countries has Iran invaded since its revolution in 1973? And that from the only country that has inflicted a thermo-nuclear attack on a civilian population. Isnât âhypocrisyâ the word Iâm reaching for?
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Kanagawa
look it, it´s nice for our UN
Alejandro Marsano, Mendoza, Argentina
İ think the coalition forces should never had come in Iraq.
Now either they don t want to stay there or go out from there, there are two ways wrong for them.What a pity situation.
MUSTAFA , BURSA, TURKEY