Richard Beeston
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What did the British achieve during their four years in Basra?
Aside from the search for weapons of mass destruction, the main goal of the coalition was to depose Saddam Hussein. This was achieved within a few weeks. For this reason British troops were welcomed initially by Basra’s majority Shia population, which had been oppressed by Saddam. But with too few troops to maintain security, the mission soon started to go wrong. Shia militias, supported by Iran, gradually took control of the streets.
Ever since, British troops have been doing little more than holding the ground they stand on. It has come at a heavy price in dead and wounded.
What impact will the withdrawal have on the city?
What little influence the British had on Basra city has now been further reduced. British forces at Basra airport could still return to the city but in reality this would be extremely difficult and dangerous, and unlikely to happen unless there is an emergency.
The power vacuum will be filled by Iran and its allies, in particular the al-Mahdi Army loyal to Moqtadr al-Sadr. The militias are now free to consolidate their positions and secure control of the city, including the hugely profitable oil-smuggling business, but there may be a turf battle.
How will Iran respond?
Iran will regard the withdrawal as a huge victory for their policy of encouraging Shia militias against American and British forces. There will be little to stop the Iranians extending their influence over the city and the province.
How will the region react?
The wider Arab world will be deeply concerned. Although the number of troops pulling out is small — only 550 — symbolically it will be viewed as a victory for Iran over a large area of Arab land. Kuwait in particular will be concerned since Basra is just across its border.
To many minds, the main battle in the Middle East is being waged by America, Israel and its Arab allies to limit Iran’s influence in the Arab world. So far, the Iranians are making all the running.
Last year Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia militia in Lebanon, fought the Israeli army to a standstill in southern Lebanon. Earlier this year Hamas, the militant Palestinian group supported by Tehran, seized control of the Gaza Strip.
Now Basra has been abandoned by the British. This all coincides with a claim by President Ahmadinejad at the weekend that Iran had mastered the nuclear fuel cycle, which the West fears is a prelude to building an atomic bomb.
Although the withdrawal may be a relief to British soldiers, their relatives and the public back home, the wider Arab world will worry that Iran is on the march and that a new showdown is looming.
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"A British withdrawal would be regarded in Washington as little short of betrayal."
May be for TV news sensationalism.
But it could unlock the situation by altering the ratios of forces in Iraq, between the 3 main groups.
At the moment there's a sort of unhealthy balance, and no possible evolution. Not one faction has a clear interest in moving frankly in any direction.
Still, every one has a good card to play: the US ally for the Kurds, Saudi support for the Sunnis and an ambiguous Iranian support for the Shias.
But if the Shias, filling the intentional void left by the British in the South, appear as autonomous as the Kurds in the North, the Sunnis (backed by the Saudis) will have to change their policies. They perhaps anticipated that by turning against some al Qaeda groups.
Strategy is not a game for loonies or dreamers and is not about kindness or malevolence. It is about built ratios of forces, seen through double entry matrix rather than the Bible or the Koran
Ronnie, PARIS, FRANCE
Sir,
Here, here, well said Jim, let's hope we can all see the big picture, and avoid another contrived war. Natural resources & controlling the strategic inter-continental trade routes. Surely that could be achieved without such a loss of blood and treasure?
SC, London, United Kingdom
the author seems unaware that the Mahdi army is not in fact an ally of Iran, but an Iraqi nationalist group.
Akram, London,
It is an obvious move that the British had to make.Iran's influence was not at all at stake as a result of British troops presence in the city of Basra.It is imbeded in the local population and the move only confirms what has been true for years.
Obvious changes,strategic decisions on the part of pro-Iranian militias will be witnessed in the coming days.However,there is also a likelihood of USA making another blunder by insisting to see presence of american troops nearer than the airport.This, of course, will be a bigger blunder than the present Central and Northern Iraq's vulnerable American position.
MAHMOOD, LONDON, UK
Even supposing that, as you say, Iran is on the march. Isn't that a matter for Iran's Arab neighbours and, at an international level, the UN? What is the UN for it is helpless to exercise a restraining influence on countries like Iran? As far as the UK is concerned, the main lesson is how to come as close as possible to self-reliance on the question of energy - and that means atomic energy.
Armen, London,
That's great Larry, you managed to insult the british, tried to claim Winston Churchill as american, and draw a very shaky parallel between the Middle East situation and World War 2-all with out saying anything interesting and relevant at all.
The fact is Britain can't realistically stay on in Iraq much longer-public opinion is against it, the force is too small to do anything useful, the political situation is not improving fast enough, the casualties are mounting, the vast majority of the violence is against British Forces anyway and the army urgently needs to recoup. The decision was taken to concentrate troops and effort in Afghanistan instead. I don't call that appeasement, and to do so is an insult to the hundreds of british dead and wounded. The americans ran the big picture-they have screwed up and we payed the price.
Comment, London, UK
When you Brits consider your greatest of leaders - Churchill.
Remember that he was half American and also remember that Neville Chamberlain the PM he replaced was 100% British and 100% appeaser.
No doubt Chamberlain still has many admirers. Lessons re-learned and re-learned and re-learned!
Larry , ATL, America
Spot on Jim but you're unlikely to hear the real story in the major Western press. There's a nice build up in the rhetoric against Iran. Deja vu...
neal, Gunnislake, UK
Has anybody noticed that whenever a team wins, the players on the team never quarrel as to whose fault it was that they won?
Louis R., Montreal , Canada
Have you not considered, Mr Beeston, that the invasion of Iran and the overthrow of the Shi'ite regime might just have been Bush's priority all along, with the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan merely being preparatory to this? After all, considering that the evidence for "Al Qaeda training camps" in Afghanistan seems to only come from the US military, what could have been the purpose for invading, other than to give access to Iran's Eastern frontier. And, did you not notice, that Bush could not wait for Blix to report on Iraq's WMD programme before invading, since there were no WMD's there at all. Blix might just have noticed this and reported it to the UN. Now why should the British army remain in Basra? Well, isn't it the only seaport in all of Iraq and Afghanistan? Notice also, that the IAEA are now reporting good progress with their inspections in Iran. Now we have reports of American plans to wipe out Iranian defences in three days. Have we been here before?
Jim Oliver, Leicester, England