On the eve of a crucial verdict on progress in Iraq being delivered to Congress, President Bush faced claims yesterday that deep divisions had opened up between his Middle East military commanders over whether his “surge” strategy was working.

Reports suggested that Admiral William Fallon, chief of US Central Command in the region, had pressed for a significant withdrawal of troops so that there would be sufficient forces for other pressing challenges.

According to an account to a video-conference meeting beamed to Mr Bush in the White House last week, he disagreed with General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, who wants to keep as many troops there as possible. Along with Ryan Crocker, the US Ambassador in Baghdad, General Petraeus is expected to tell Congress today that making any significant changes to strategy would put at risk the fragile political and military progress of recent months. Their report has become a pivotal moment for Washington and Baghdad.

Mr Bush hopes to buy time for the surge strategy, despite the opposition of most Democrats, who control both houses of Congress, and the scepticism of some senior Republicans.

General Petraeus: The Times interview

'What sustains you is the Iraqis who are incurring enormous risk to try to achieve the vision of a new nation in an ancient land'

BACKGROUND

• Comment: General Petraeus polarises Washington

• Q&A: General Petraeus and the surge

• Petraeus dresses right for critical moment

• America can’t just walk away, US general insists

• New US general will copy British 'softly-softly' style

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Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, is clinging to office despite calls for his removal from politicians in his country and Washington.

Mr Crocker is likely to give a grudging vote of confidence to Mr al-Maliki, saying that despite a poor performance by the Government in delivering political reconciliation, it would not be advisable to support a new leadership or a different coalition between the Shia, Sunni and Kurd groups.

General Petraeus will claim that this year’s addition of 30,000 troops — bringing the US total to nearly 170,000 — has achieved some limited success in quelling the insurgency. He is expected to recommend a reduction of troop levels by the bare minimum of one brigade of about 4,000 soldiers by next spring. Some withdrawals are, in any case, necessary unless the Pentagon extends tours of duty beyond 15 months.

Over the weekend, General Petraeus sent a letter to troops in Iraq citing “uneven” but quantifiable progress on security while acknowledging that political progress “has not worked out as we had hoped”. He added: “We are, in short, a long way from the goal line, but we do have the ball and we are driving down the field.”

He and Mr Crocker are expected to say that an independent report by congressional auditors, who found that only three of 18 benchmarks for progress in Iraq had been fully met, set unfair standards for judging success. Their testimony will set the stage for an announcement by Mr Bush later this week on proceeding with the surge in Iraq over the next year when he will once again ask Congress to approve billions of dollars of war funding.

But Admiral Fallon, echoing criticism from other generals and allies, including Britain, has said that Iraq has undermined the US’s ability to tackle other threats, such as the Taleban resurgence in Afghanistan. A senior US official, quoted yesterday by The Washington Post, said: “He’s been saying from Day One ‘this isn’t working’.”

Democrats are already dismissing General Petraeus as little more than a mouthpiece of the Bush Administration. A newspaper advertisement from Moveon.org, the anti-war group, will appear today in The New York Times asking if he should be called “General Petraeus or General Betray us?”. However, there is some evidence that Republicans have rallied to Mr Bush’s position and should be able to block any Bill setting out a binding timetable for immediate withdrawal.

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