Michael Evans, Defence Editor
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America’s top military commander in Iraq acknowledged yesterday that Britain’s recent withdrawal of 500 troops from the centre of Basra and the handover of security responsibility for the city to the Iraqis had already paid dividends.
General David Petraeus, in London to meet Gordon Brown and senior Cabinet ministers, denied that there had been a spat between the United States and Britain over the withdrawal of the British troops from Basra. “I don’t know where that came from,” he said, speaking at a press conference in Whitehall before heading for 10 Downing Street.
General Jack Keane, an architect of the American surge policy of deploying 30,000 additional US troops to Baghdad, indicated recently that there was concern that a British withdrawal would lead to an increase in violence in Basra, and said there were fears that the Americans might have to backfill in the south with their own troops.
However, General Petraeus, giving the Government his own assessment of the way that things are going in the south, said that he had personally blessed the decision to pull out the remaining 500 troops from the Basra Palace base, and was pleased that it had been carried out “in an orderly way”.
He also said that the level of violence in the city in recent weeks had dropped significantly.
However, he gave warning that the Iranians, who already have a powerful influence in the south among the Shia militia who have been attacking the British Forces, remained a cause of grave concern in the southern provin-ces, particularly in Basra.
Asked by The Times whether the interference of the Iranians in the south was the key reason for maintaining a substantial British force there, General Petraeus said he would not put it at the top of his list, but that it was one of several factors that would dictate when conditions were right for any reduction of forces. “But I wouldn’t rank it \ in any particular order,” he said. He refused to be drawn on any timetable for future British troop withdrawals.
But both he and Ryan Crocker, the US Ambassador to Baghdad, who spoke alongside the general at the press conference at the Royal United Services Institute, referred to the potential “devastating consequences” of a premature withdrawal of troops “for our two nations and the world”.
Mr Crocker said that the consequences for the Iraqi people would be severe.
Before their meeting with the Prime Minister, General Petraeus and Mr Crocker met Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, and Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff. Today he is expected to see David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary.
Despite his upbeat assessment of the progress that had been made in the south, General Petraeus said that there remained serious challenges. But he was optimistic that the British would be able to hand over security control of the whole of Basra province to the Iraqis “by the fall or by winter”. The three other provinces in the south have already been transferred to Iraqi responsibility.
The four-star general who gave evidence to US Congress last week on the achievements of the US troop-surge strategy, praised the British military contribution and, in particular, noted the efforts of the special forces and two British generals, Lieutenant-General Graeme Lamb and Lieutenant-General Bill Rollo, both of whom had acted as his deputy in Baghdad.
He repeated his evidence to Congress in which he recalled that General Lamb, former Director Special Forces, had reminded him that in counter-insurgency campaigns, “you reconcile with your enemies, not with your friends”, and talked of his experiences in Northern Ireland. “He talked about how he sat across the table from . . . former IRA members who had been swinging [explosive] pipes at his lads, as he put it, just a few years earlier. That was quite instructive for us,” General Petraeus said.
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"Tell me again how we are going to win this one..."
Iraq has never been an homogenous nation, it has been held together for most of its history by ruthless, partisan leaders. The West should stop insisting on political accommodation among the disparate elements, which will never happen, and do things another way.
Iraq would function well as a federation of six component states - a Kurdish north, Sunni west, Shia centre, Shia south and mixed greater Baghdad. In 4 out of 5, the majority ethnic group comprises 90%+ of the population, so tensions will drop overnight (apart from inter-party sparring up to state elections).
The sixth one, pro tem, is the 'disputed areas' - eastern Ninevah, Kirkuk, north Diyala/Tuz, south Diyala and north Babel, three of which need a dividing line between Kurd and Sunni. Pass that lot over to the UN to administer and hold referendums to define future borders. Ethnic hostility will soon dry up.
But we need to stay in control and keep pounding AQ meantime.
royc, London, UK
Petraeus and co. have a powerful vested interest in telling us about "alleged" falling violence.
Of course it falls...if you newly re-jig the figures to EXCLUDE all car bomb deaths, and only include those shot in the FRONT of the head, not in the BACK of the head.....................American logic? .........don'tcha just love it !!
DUH !!!!
Hamish Morrison, LANARK, SCOTLAND
Christopher Carson, your comment is rather naive and could have been lifted from a Pentagon policy document. You should read up on your Balkan (and Iraqi) history. It is typical of an American use terms like winning when referring to interventions in foreign intra-state conflicts as if there is a Cold War-esque ideological enemy to be wiped out.
You, or more appropriately the Bosnian people, only "won" after the remnants of Milosovic's Yugoslavia were dismantled. Like Iraq, Yugoslavia had no national identity, and it was only the presence of a strong leader (in this case a little more benevolent than Saddam Hussein) who held together what was an artificial construct. As we saw in Yugoslavia, the decline of strong central leadership allowed nationalism to resurface and it is only recently that all the former Yugoslav states have managed to achieve a sense of normalcy as Croatia did in the 1990s.
As with the former Yugoslavia, Iraq will not see peace until it is dissolved.
Craig Hand, Glasgow,
In response to Mr Carson I would say that Iraq did not function as a homogenous democratic entity before the Baathists took over. And to suggest that what has proved possible in Bosnia, which is culturally European, will be possible in Iraq is naive. I base my opinions on having worked in various parts of Arabia in the past.
I would be delighted to be proved wrong, however. Alas, I fear that future events will prove me correct.
Tony Jones, Grantham, Lincs
Nice of the General to admit that the British troops withdrawn from Basra was paying dividends. All those Americans who belated British Forces for doing so...you know sometimes you need to listen to your Allies. Extra large helpings of humble pie coming your way...especially Max of Houston.
kirk, Rotherham, uk
The drop in violence in Southern Iraq is almost certainly real. Evidence suggests that Petraeus's claims of a drop in violence right across Iraq is almost certainly false.
Casualty Monitor, London,
Absolutely correct. Iraqi's will work out their differences as soon as foreign troops are out.
Why not extend this retreat to the rest of the country?
Did I hear "oil"?
Alfred, Ryde, Isle of Wight
the Britainâs recent withdrawal let the city inthe hands of militia
wich evrey body know thestrong conections with iran ,and let basra pepole under thier action (forcing the to applay islamic rules ,even if they were not muslems ) so ,the action of collation forces is to run away let them to face thier distany
also they know ( collation forces ) that is no force in basra to applay the low ???????????????
so shall we say that basra will join iran soon ????
mahmoud shaker , basra, iraq
In response to Mr Tony Jones, of Grantham, Lincs, I say: you say there is no Iraqi national identity and never was. But how do you explain the functioning state of Iraq before the Baathist criminal conspiracy seized power? How do we win this one? By allowing a democracy to grow and flourish. How did we "win" in Bosnia? Through the same route.
Christopher Carson
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Christopher Carson, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA
It amazes me that senior politicians STILL haven't got the message that there is no homogenous, coherent thing as 'the Iraqi people'. There are only religious and tribal groups who have fought and will continue to fight each other until one manages to suppress all the others - as Saddam did, with Western help. And as the Shias are likely to do with Iranian help once we have withdrawn. The interests of the Sunnis are not those of the Shias or Kurds and vice versa.
However, these groups will unite temporarily against foreign invaders and against any government endorsed by such foreign invaders.
Tell me again how we are going to win this one...
Tony Jones, Grantham, Lincs